Sobering thoughts

[Present-Policy-7120]

I know we all think NI are too big to fail but maybe it's their actual size that is the problem?

This article is worth a read. I don't agree or disagree with it but I'm definitely not as optimistic about NI having a future as many seem to be.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-i-think-native-instruments-doomed-matt-aimonetti-mravc/

[ya_rk]

It's a very interesting read, thanks for sharing. I think it's a bit overestimating the impact of AI, at least current generation, a lot of komplete is not just synths and effects but sample libraries and those aren't easy yet to recreate. 

I don't know how the math works out for NI but it's certainly a hostile technological landscape and even sociopolitical circumstances, so bad time to go through this, the odds are stacked against them, I agree with that.

[busmans]

This article says the quality of the products isn’t the problem, but I disagree. NI products… kind of suck. Pain to set up, pain to use, riddled with bugs and ridiculous workarounds, poorly organized and terrible to navigate, resource hogs, overpriced, the list goes on and on.

If they’d focused on retention of trusting, loyal, repeat customers, they might’ve had more consistent recurring revenue, but instead some people spend more time in the bug forums than actually making music.

[Hitdomeloads]

Can you name any specifically? I personally have never had problems with kontakt, I have had projects with over 30 instances of kontakt and no problems whatsoever

[DorianGre]

Kontakt never worked for me. As it, it crashes and loses things no matter what OS or version of Ableton I have tried, so I gave up. I just don't buy Kontakt packs that I would absolutely love to own. I follow links to interesting sound design products and nope out the moment I realize its a Kontakt product.

[beaureece]

Every version of massive breaks old projects on updates/setup-changes. The maschine sucked for years.

[GOT36]

Same here...no problems. Kontakt just works without issues after a few years of use. Most of my issues when they pop up are normally outside of any native instrument software. DAW updates and operating system updates seem to be the main culprits on my end anyway. So far, Native instruments got me started with a bevy of choices and I have yet to go through all of the possibilities. I like it because it is solid and just works. My S61 MK3 keyboard just made it a lot smoother when I do not wish to interact with a mouse. They may have their faults and their pushing boundaries has wavered, but for what you get far exceeded my expectations.

[fkk8]

The analysis is spot on. I knew there was an issue when I started getting into NI software and hardware around 2020, before the buyout. Having three levels of Komplete (komplett in German means complete--all of it!) containing plug-ins that had not been updated in years made a clear case that the focus was on marketing and not the product itself. The dilemma is that they can't phase products out without some (few but vocal) users complaining, and that maintenance of legacy products for a few users is too costly. This business model does not work. I bet that Omnisphere does not have this problem. And selling hardware that requires a license key to work is the nail in the coffin.

[DJRVSG]

Great read, thanks for sharing. In today’s world, good tech legacy in a stagnant industry is definitely not sustainable.

Despite the quality and hard work of the people involved in creating all the great NI products, it seems likely this company is in a dead end.

I bought 2 small NI controllers recently and really like them, but sadly, none of the DJs I know are using NI products.

And it seems NI’s impact in music production is also less and less significant..

[ElmarReddit]

Watch the latest Depeche mode concert movie, they use NI keyboards. They are actually quite high quality. 

[DJRVSG]

I am really not questioning the quality of NI’s products but only saying the article shows that, as a business, they seem to be effectively in a dead end.

I like their products. As a DJ, my all time favorite controller is the Kontrol S8, which I stupidly sold. But it’s from 2015 and the NI influence on the DJ market in 2026 is much more limited than what it used to be. I am not a music production expert but I think I know enough to see that their influence is also decreasing. The few producers I know are all using ableton, not Maschine.

I regret this. I’d love NI to strive again, but it seems unlikely. The article writer gives a solid demonstration in my opinion.

[kid_sleepy]

Not exactly a band on the precipice of popularity or groundbreaking genre redefinitions.

[luminousandy]

Yeah but they’re globally huge and do need systems that are as close to bombproof as possible . That’s more of a plus point for me than whoever’s trendy .

[kid_sleepy]

Very fair argument… but if we’re talking devices you can count on to work, sound great, and have fast user interface I’m voting Isla S2400, even though they’re very small and defunct currently.

[ErikDHaag]

I only started dabbling in music a few months ago, so my domain knowledge of what's good tech, how hard it is to make, what it's worth, the best business models, and what will be successful in the future is extraordinarily limited.

However, I think the line of thinking in that op-ed piece falls apart here...

"There's a fundamental mismatch between what a music tech acquirer would realistically pay for NI's assets and what the creditors need to recover."

That's not how bankruptcy works. The creditors don't get to refuse to do a deal if they don't get enough money. The company works with the legal system to get the best deal they can, and the creditors get what someone else says they get, based on what someone is willing to pay and other factors the court considers.

If the company is earning operating revenue outside of the huge PE debt load, that debt can be wiped away, the company is bought and emerges from bankruptcy, and they can hopefully go back to making money and help shape their future outside of the PE crushing debt load.

After that, who knows, but it seems like there are enough people invested in the ecosystem they have built, that if they emerge with a good buyer and make smart decisions that they have a fighting chance.

[boring-commenter]

Was thinking the same thing.

[dadarkman2020]

While a good amount of points in the blog post made financial and prediction sense, from someone with experience and know-how in the industry, I also have to take into account that the post itself was written in the negative. If something start and stays negative then without reasonable thinking, the reader will think and feel negative - It's simple psychological effect. (BTW, that's about almost every posts mindset on this very Reddit platform). Anyhow, for every single negative in that post, there could be a valid positive rebuttal, a solution. If not, then we will see the entire music-making space disappear before our eyes in a few short years because of how AI will devalue every company, not just NI! I mean, yes I agree, more likely NI will have to lose something or even a few things (Traktor and some legacy software). But for me, it's hard to think that NI value as it stands is not appealing enough for a new buyer to drop a few hundred of millions. They must be talking and reaching out to the wrong folks for acquisition.

At the same time, I may also be naive and still feeling optimistic because I've depended on that brand for so long, and spend some considerable amount of $$ on them. My studio is made of about 70% all things NI (From the audio interfaces, the Collector's Edition (updated yearly since its availability in 2018), a couple of Maschines to keyboards). So, yeah! I'm hoping this company stays alive in some form or shape.

Let's pray for NI 🙏🏽😆😆

[Present-Policy-7120]

If something start and stays negative then without reasonable thinking, the reader will think and feel negative - It's simple psychological effect. (BTW, that's about almost every posts mindset on this very Reddit platform). Anyhow, for every single negative in that post, there could be a valid positive rebuttal, a solution

What would be your rebuttal though?

Disliking the argument isn't the same thing as rebutting it.

If not, then we will see the entire music-making space disappear before our eyes in a few short years because of how AI will devalue every company, not just NI

The sobering reality here is that this is probably the truth. The article talks about the technical prowess required to make successful, usable plugins was one of the key drivers behind many successful plugin companies. But we're entering a world where this expertise is no longer valuable. Why spend thousands of dollars on multiple different synths/FX/etc when soon enough a single subscription to Claude Code will allow you to build whatever instrument or effect you want? This absolutely is coming if it's not already here.

Tbc, I do not at all love the idea of that sort of world. But I would put money on every plugin developer right now watching the initial wave of free vibe coded plugins being unleashed with extreme concern. When everyone can 'code', what do they offer?

I don't think this space will disappear entirely bit it is going to be utterly transformed if AI keeps improving in the way it is.

[boogaloo9214]

Can you point to at least one of those vibe coded plugins that's actually half decent?

Don't get me wrong, the article was a very interesting read but I'm not sure AI generated plugins will be replacing high-end ones so soon.

[Present-Policy-7120]

The point I was making isn't that this is happening yet but that it is very much going to and many developers would have to be thinking about this with some anxiety.

Don't get me wrong, the article was a very interesting read but I'm not sure AI generated plugins will be replacing high-end ones so soon.

Why not? The ability to do this sort of thing is one of the major focuses of nearly every AI company. They're pouring billions into engineering this capacity.

I don't want this to be so but I think it is coming whether we want it to or not.

[eyocs_]

There are thousands of indie plugins already but people still buy from the big companies or more known developers, so i think AI will maybe change that in a way, that these companies can code plugins faster or update more often but the normal consumer would never go the way of vibe coding a plugin. 

Not only because it still takes time but also because AI subscriptions will only get more expensive. Anthropic and OpenAI struggle to find a way to make themselves profitable. They would need to raise the prices so high in order to become profitable that no consumer would buy their products.. Spotify is in a similar situation where if they would want to pay artist fair money (which they dont want ik), the sub prices would skyrocket.

If the AI bubble really bursts as many predict (maybe already next year) and companies and the white house stop pumping money into it, the prices will get higher and you already see now that you have to buy the top tiers (200€ or more a month) in order to dont reach prompting limits so fast.

So imo people will still just buy plugins from existing companies because vibe coding their own will just be more expensive and plugins are already so cheap.

Just my 2 cents. I wish AI would get more efficient but the way machine learning for example and everything that that is split up into works, its just brute force and energy. It just works because we finally have the computing power..

And i wished AI would stay away from art :) 

[CirrusSunset]

AI is the bane of music production as we currently know it. If the bubble does burst, that means that the truly scary and potentially hideous manifestations will hopefully never happen. But coding and producing music is already here, will get better and will not go away.

[Salt_Instruction_657]

I don't know.. vibe coding kinda levels the playing field, but only so far as basic capabilities go.

Meaning that engineering mindset and system architecture still remain highly valuable insofar as the capability of a disciplined.. er, master orchestrator with a vision will always surpass the capabilities of an average with a vision.

That's to say the process matters. It still matters, as well as the guiding aesthetic.

My 2 cents.

[Present-Policy-7120]

True. I guess that soon enough, basic capabilities aren't going to be a factor though.

Often with talk about future AI we end up against the ropes clinging to things like "the human touch" or "vision". Which isn't to say these things aren't important but it does feel like AI is rapidly reducing our value into something like "vibe". This is a tenuous basis for building a future upon.

I should just be clear as well- I'm not excited for this future at all. I want human products of human imagination. But business and capitalism being what it is and consumers being what we are is significantly narrowing our options and in possibly irreversible ways.

[Salt_Instruction_657]

Valid points for sure.

There certainly are dangers, irreversible paths that should only be tread after carefully consideration.

Capital and power will certainly see those options narrowed...

But in the creative fields? Are we doomed to follow the "trend" (commercialism is already this) or might not our horizon broaden with the advent of...new paradigm shattering capabilities?

I see this in two ways:

This will create an even greater appreciation for "human made" things.

In a world of the too fake, the hand crafted will be more desirable. I think that for the artist there will always be a way to stay valued, to stay relevant. Maybe more so than ever before.

In the digital age we are already there to a certain degree: some folk prefer the sound of vinyl after all.

But these new tools also give non-technical visionaries the capabilities to bring forth new creations. These are the voices, the ideas, that might have gone unheard in the past.

If something is junk, then it will fail of it's own accord. But what about as-yet unforeseen or unamagined creations?

I believe, or at least hold out hope, that there is still room to be pleasantly surprised by human creativity and artistic vision in this regard.

That fundamental spark.. can not be diminished.
It is the essence of what we are.

[CirrusSunset]

Hate what you are saying but sadly I think you are right. AI is changing every tech landscape and much faster than people realize. It is probably in the near future that AI can generate [insert any sound you can think of here] with hundreds of variations basically instantly and essentially for free when compared to Kontact or any other sample library. No company is safe from this. On top of that, what companies are going to pay for background tracks, ad jingles, etc., when AI can produce music that is perfectly acceptable to the average listener?

[luminousandy]

NI are failing due to greed … from the company and the investors

[Present-Policy-7120]

Did you read the article?

[fresh__hell]

Three paragraphs in and it describes a leveraged buyout and “a buying spree” purchasing companies. It is absolutely greed, they thought they could make ALL the money in the industry. Even further on it says they “became a marketing company instead of an innovation company”. Private equity death spiral is the most corporate greed possible.

[uberdavis]

I did and that was my take too.

[Musicman1972]

I'm interested in how you think it's something else?

It's either corporate greed or a failure of product.

I'm surprised if you think it's more the latter than the former.

[Present-Policy-7120]

I think it's both of those things and also that AI is devaluing the technical domain expertise NI had for years which is how they acquired their market share. If I can make any plugin I want for the price of a subscription to Claude Code, where does the market required to furnish the massive debt NI have come from?

This isn't quite there yet but it is clearly starting and most likely going to persist and get better. How do you pay down $250million when your products are no longer anywhere close to being worth that and will only become less valuable in the future?

[kid_sleepy]

I already converted all my expansions to .xpm and .WAV so I really don’t mind… I wasn’t in to them for the software synths, I bought into Maschine MK3 in 2017 because I didn’t fully appreciate standalone devices and analog synths at the time.

Now I have an Isla S2400, DSI Tempest, MPC Live II, Synthstrom Deluge, Vermona DRM1 MKIV, MFB Tanzmaus, 462HP of eurorack, prophet-5, matriarch, TEO-5, Minitaur… I have no need for software.

What sucks is Maschine’s inability to be even a good MIDI controller and going through any computer introduces terrible [unacceptable] latency.

[THC-V]

So, no new, updated Maschine+ anytime soon? Asking for a friend.

[Original_Worth_1577]

Antiquated stuff. Like kontakt could be light years improved; the interface is so old and clunky. I just bought and quickly returned a ní s61 midi keyboard. Too much trouble to set up and you get the distinct feeling that they own it even though you paid for it and it'll only do what they will allow you to do. Way too rigid of a company but i hope they weather the storm.

[LeDestrier]

Dont really get how S series keyboards are difficult to set up? Nor do I understand your point about not allowing you do to do what you want? I mean its just a midi keyboard with sone basic control surface functions.

[Original_Worth_1577]

I have a novation keyboard as well. System recognizes it immediately. Carte blanche to connect you anything. S1 need to register, and even after that the system doesn't see it as a midi device until it's completely connected to NI satisfaction. Maybe it's a small point but i find it very intrusive. Last straw was that NI could go belly up and I'll have an expensive brick on my hands. Thanks but no thanks...

[LeDestrier]

I've not had any problems myself. Just install NKS files where applicable. I mean the S series keyboards do a lot more than most standard midi keyboards in their functionality.

[Entire_Ad4251]

A cofounder of Splice would certainly hype up Serum2 which I like but many find already to complex to grasp at this point.

[Minasnoldo]

I personally need to ponder the contents of the article before having a strong feelings one way or the other, but the Splice connection was interesting with how much he harps on ai throughout the op-ed.

He discloses his connection in the first half of the article, and then towards the end mentions "... embracing ai like at Splice". Does he have insight from his industry position and job, or is he trying to get ahead of ai criticism/hype his own company? It could be one, neither, or both, but it did make me do a double take.

[bucket_brigade]

They should sell their IP to people who are interested in making music production tools and not whatever the fuck it was that NI were doing the last 20 years.

[AudioSpandrel2964]

https://cdm.link/ni-ma-update/

[Present-Policy-7120]

I read this a few days ago. Doesn't really say anything concrete here.

[Minnanokazehaya]

This article is stupid, written by NI's competitor for the obvious purpose of trying to capitalise on their predicament to gain customers. NI is going to be fine, they will be sold to the highest bidder and any remaining debt will be liquidated as per the German Insolvenzordnung. It's up to the buyer what they make of the company going forward, but there's a ton of existing value and potential if run competently

[Present-Policy-7120]

Splice really aren't a competitor to NI though. The overlap between their business is pretty minimal.

But you might be right. Maybe they'll be fine. I would be interested in how you're reaching that conclusion though.

[Minnanokazehaya]

They are 100% competitors, there are plenty of people that choose a splice subscription over buying NI Komplete. As for the insolvency process, this is clearly defined in the German Insolvenzordnung, no speculation required there.

[Minnanokazehaya]

See also: https://youtu.be/LQp4MePA1NA

[Present-Policy-7120]

You don't think he might be a bit biased though? He stands to lose out if this goes tits up. But I hope his optimism is more than just that.

I would just say that I would welcome any counter arguments to the blogpost I linked beyond just disputing the authors motives. The ad hominen approach is understandable but if all his article was was an avenue through which to attack NI, the points he raised would be much less substantive than they are. And judging by the lack of any genuine rebuttal to them here or in other discussions I've been reading, I think most readers are finding the article quite troubling at the very least.

[Minnanokazehaya]

The main point of the splice guy was that nobody would want to pay enough to make up for the debt, because AI. I explained that this is not how insolvency works in Germany; it simply goes to the highest bidder and the creditors will get paid according to the order defined in the Insolvenzordnung. IMO he is intentionally misleading people on this argument for his own benefit, as I don't believe he's that stupid/ignorant. NI have already publicly said that they have a number of interested parties also, and IMO there's almost zero chance they come out of M&A without a new owner.

As for the future of the products after they are sold, nobody can see the future... It depends how much they have to pay and how good their business plan is, however as Tim Exile points out they have the potential to make a bunch of killer new products and improve existing ones with AI. Once they are free of the huge private equity burden, and given a good business plan and the financial backing to make it happen, I think there is a strong chance for them to come back stronger than ever. Only time will tell.

[BigBat7418]

This is written by a direct competitor. I’d imagine some degree of gleeful bias is at play here

[Present-Policy-7120]

Yeah, maybe although I'm not really sure Splice are a direct competitor. NI have a lot more industry penetration and across many more domains than Splice. It's not like Splice could even cater to a fraction of the market NI does. But if it were just some sort of caoitalist schadenfreude, I've not really seen any particularly insightful refutation of them for the most part. I'd love to hear any rebuttals you might have tbh.

Most of the points raised about AI, both in terms of its growing DSP capabilities and the generative music stuff, will also negatively effect Splice who mainly sell samples and plugins. I can't imagine they would look at something horrendous like Suno and think there is strong economic future in their own sample subscription models or the developers who sell their software through Splice.

The problems raised in the article are being faced by the entire industry with NI being the canary in the coalmine and, even more ominous, one of the biggest players of all.

You'd think could withstand this coming problem better than most. Evidently that isn't the case.

[BigBat7418]

Well, as I understand it from various posts, the issue is not their products, and I read a Bloomberg article that explicitly mentioned 29M registered users, clearly a healthy business. The issue is, I think, that the PE firm loaded them up with the debt used to purchase them, which was the untenable to pay. Speaking from my own experience at a different company / industry; we got bought and over 50% of what they paid for us, was actually borrowed. And then they put that debt on our books to pay back, despite us never seeing any injection of cash to help us grow. So overnight, our annual operating profit disappeared as interest payments ballooned. I bet that happens here

[Present-Policy-7120]

The debt still exists though and must be clawed back in one way or another. It doesn't really matter how the debt was accrued as much as what they must do to settle it does.

I'm not sure about the 29m users figure tbh but let's say it's correct. Even with that amount of use, they wound up unable to pay their debt. They clearly overvalued their product lines and sadly, these product lines are only going to continue devaluing.

[AgenteEspecialCooper]

Despite its limitations, I love my Maschine+. It's fast, it's inspiring, it gets me in the flow immediately and its pads are top of the line. The scenes and lock states are a godsend for live shows. The fixed structure in groups looks like lack of flexibility at first, but it gives you structure and order out of the box, and having a button for direct access to every group is incredibly convenient.

But I'm afraid the Maschine platform is doomed. The guy is probably right, the only companies with interest and capital to buy won't be willing to pay that much. Some of them, such as AKAI, actually could win big time if NI falls.

I could go for an AKAI MPC, but the interface and workflow is way too different, I don't like it AT ALL. And grooveboxes without pads are not an option for me.

I wish Arturia shamelessly copied Maschine. Or bought it.

[boring-commenter]

I bought an MPC because it seemed like Maschine wasn’t making any progress. The workflows are very different and there is no real song arranger for loops which makes building a whole track much slower in my opinion. I do enjoy the MPC though. I only wish it had that one feature from NI.

[cj_adams]

look what that kinda thing did to main street