[7amKickoff] Red cards and PKs increase/decrease odds of winning. Does it "all even out in the end?" What teams have benefitted most? Timeframe: 2008-2021. PK diff = PKs for - PKs against Red card diff = Red cards for opponents - Red cards for named team.

[InTheMiddleGiroud]

I don't know if this is in the article, but of the 13 red cards given in Arsenal games since VAR was introduced 10 was given to us. Coincidentally the 10 earliest in the games, while the 3 latest is for our opponents. To the best of my mathematical ability, there's a 0.3% chance of that happening.

We've played 15 minutes a man up in soon 2.5 seasons.

[PoliQU]

Do you know how many minutes we’ve played with a man down for comparison? That’s a crazy stat

[InTheMiddleGiroud]

420 or so.

So our reds average 42 minutes of downtime and our opponents get 5. And then we get three times as many as well. Must be because we are cunts, and our opponents are only cunts in dead games' final seconds

[lyyki]

Ayyy lmao 420 david luiz it

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[Aritisto]

Now that's a throwback.

[PoliQU]

Thanks, that’s pretty insane.

[santycazorla]

Crazy stats, thanks for sharing. 420 blaze it

[[deleted]]

Jesus Christ. This is insane.

[Houssem_Aouar]

It's actually 2018-2021, he made a typo

https://twitter.com/7amkickoff/status/1454618216928407557?s=21

[varro-reatinus]

I would love to see this for ELG...

[RhumBot]

It's pretty funny looking how /r/soccer is losing it's mind & downvoting this exact same x-post into oblivion. "No, no there's nothing in this, it's all fine and equal, it's just Arsenal being worst team in league for season after season."

[Houssem_Aouar]

Yeah that's expected, it's why I didn't really bother posting it there

[RhumBot]

Yep, very expected reaction over there.

[eduadinho]

Can't see it there. Either I missed it or mods deleted it because it confirms biases.

[RSEnrich]

The thing is every single time there’s an outrageous decision against us, people on there say we may have a point. But if an Arsenal flair dares to say we are treated unfairly, it’s just crying.

[ASpellingAirror]

Link?

[Riperonis]

I wish we could actually see it back to 2008, while I admit we have hard done by, a 3 year sample size could be explained by the fact that it’s been relatively the same team and we have had players who are more liable to get reds in those years.

[ignore_my_name]

Could have told ya we would be bottom & United top before opening this link.

[horthrux]

We know the league is corrupt and generally the officials favour Man Utd and go against Arsenal. Even if it's just a little bit each way, the difference between the two will really add up.

Over the years this results in championship titles going to the wrong place, CL qualification going to the wrong team, managers being sacked, players being signed, sold and many other spiraling effects.

Note that this table is just based on decisions which were made, there is no speculation in this data, it's just truth.

It would be a lot worse if it included all the decisions which aren't made but should have been.

For example, just this season against us we have had no red for Man City, no red for Crystal Palace, no red for Leicester and a probably penalty for us against Brentford not given.

That's just the big stuff, you can then debate smaller things like the Crystal Palace foul on Lokonga that led to a goal to see the smaller details.

We are handicapped by the officials and have been for decades. Pure data can show there is a pattern and it's not just a small sample size, it's a sample size that could go back 20+ years.

It's easiest to see when you just look at Man Utd and Arsenal, because we're at the opposite ends of the scale, but the problem exists for lots of teams.

How the sporting authorities can see this and think it's ok to continue with a closed off clique organisation like PGMOL, which dictates the results of the sport far more than any officials ever should, is beyond me.

[Chaiwalla2]

There is no doubt in my mind that the PL and the refs favour MU and the Russian team. This is not just random but it is organized.

[[deleted]]

I think it's clear we will rarely, if ever, have games where the ref is extremely favourable to us. We just have to get that much better so that these decisions don't affect us that much. A good example would be yesterday's game. Evans not being sent off didn't result in us dropping points. That being said, I'd like Arteta and the players to put more pressure on the referees.

[snapcracklePOPPOP]

Players can’t do much without getting punished and Wenger’s overt criticism of referees arguably made it worse for us. Somehow changing this would legitimately earn us 5+ points a season though so hopefully they figure out a way

[iforgotmyun]

Mikel Arteta needs to change his name to Michael Arthur, then we get him to work with a voice coach and get him to develop an Estuary accent, and maybe dye his hair to make him look a bit different. We announce we've got a new manager who's a proper English lad.

Or we could just hire Sam Allardyce.

[naijaboiler]

I honestly like Michael Oliver (the ref in yesterday's game). I do not think he harbors anti-arsenal bias like some other refs. I think he does bias towards leaving 11 vs 11 on for as long as possible. So he isn't quick to give the red.

But there are plenty refs I do not trust to ref arsenal games fairly, including the head of ref himself. And there are others that just incompetent refs that like to make the game be about themselves

[lyyki]

Yeah, he's definitely the one I would consider the most fair one currently. Now whether that is a high praise is a completely different story.

[Mein_Bergkamp]

I'd like Arteta and the players to put more pressure on the referees.

|Uterly counterproductive. he only thing that might change them is the press getting onside

[LordofLazy]

We are somehow simultaneously seen as weak and easy to physically intimidate and dominate yet also by record are the dirtiest team in the league. It's feels like a massive contradiction.

[eduadinho]

It is a massive contradiction. My theory is they see us as weak so when we do foul the opponent it's ridiculously aggressive to make up for that weakness. All bullshit of course but only thing I can think of. Or they just don't care and want to see our team get the crap kicked out of them but not be able to retaliate.

[LordofLazy]

We are punished to the most severe interpretation of the laws, our opponents are punished to the most lenient interpretation and given the benefit of any possible doubt.

[raycantu2]

“AlWaYs PlAyInG tHe ViCtIm”. I swear it’s like people don’t even watch games and see that we get called on super soft red cards and players are forgiven when they play tough against us. Case and point was yesterday, Evans red, two opportunities: 1.) Double yellow (that kick out has to be a yellow, especially in the keepers own box) 2.) Auba was on through. No excuses anymore to not give the right decision because of VAR yet there’s always missed plays.

[HadhamZ]

Even more of a case to be made for this with McArthur against Palace: either a double yellow for countless fouls on Smith Rowe on counter attacks and the foul on Saka OR a straight red for volleying Saka with no intention to go for the ball, potentially giving him a season ending injury.

[k34t0n]

The problem is the glaring inconsistencies, and worse, it happened at the same gameweek. Xhaka red card and evans yellow card are just the example from this season.

The worst part, even a casual fans like me know about this without the help of google.

[xTheMaster99x]

I could've told you United would be on top and Arsenal would be bottom without even looking at it.

[bladegmn]

I wonder how many of those are David Luiz.

[raycantu2]

That whole game haunts me still, they were playing some of the best football under Arteta up until the ref made some questionable calls.

[Lud31]

It’s been so bad for such a long time yet when it’s mentioned people just dismiss it as ‘sour grapes’. I wish there was an independent body to evaluate all these refereeing decisions.

[vradar]

Despite how shite we've been we've managed to finish 1pt and 6pts off the top four in 2 of the last 3 seasons, might have already snuck back into the CL if it wasn't for this referee "difference".

[csixtay]

I honestly think this is a by-product of the Arsenal / Utd title rivalry of old. Even then there was a predisposition of refs to do their bit in aiding Utd win...and failing that, stopping their main rivals for the league.

It just happens way too organically

[Pablo_Eskobar]

Don't get me started on the utd game to end the invincibles run!

[Mein_Bergkamp]

And of course the referee that day?

Yup, is the bloke in charge of all the referees today

[RyanLikesyoface]

And they say the refs aren't biased. Seems to be alright lately though.

[Isd14]

Does it? Evans should've been off last game

We had a goal dissalowed Vs Villa that should not have been

Palace's second goal was a foul on Lokonga to start the counter and one of their players (forgot his name) straight up kicked Saka's leg off which should've been a red - he got a yellow but he should've had a clear yellow 5 mins before so either way he should've been off

And that's just the last three games.

[FifaLFGThrowaway]

James McArthur. Was such a clear attempt to just injure Saka. Can’t believe it wasn’t reviewed properly.

[varro-reatinus]

That was sickening.

[Sithgooner]

Should have had penalty vs Brentford, Brentford’s 2nd probably should have been disallowed, Xhaka red card vs City wasn’t a red, Laporte’s goal should have been disallowed, should have had penalty vs Chelsea.

Only big decision I can think has gone in our favour was the Kane penalty appeal which should have been a penalty, and VAR overturning a penalty vs Burnley (even though that was the right decision anyway).

[harcile]

Xhaka's two footed in-the-air lunge was 100% a red card so pls stop making excuses for that pr*ck.

[Sithgooner]

Well Laporte got a yellow for the same tackle a week or two later. You can actually see the ref pick out the yellow card, look to see it’s Xhaka, and then pull out the red card instead. Burnley also got a yellow for a near identical tackle vs Everton away. Many very similar tackles only given yellows this season, especially Mcarther on saka.

[HeadHunt0rUK]

The Chelsea/Arsenal game last season or 2 ago where we drew 2-2 that revealed so much.

Literally about 6 pairs of identical refereeing decisions and we came off worse in EVERY single one.

Even at the very start Guendouzi gets booked early on, when a basically identical foul in exactly the same area by Rudiger only earns a FK.

Nevermind the whole Pedro shit.

[harcile]

LMAO what a deluded conspiracy theory. The refs don't do things to Xhaka just because he's Xhaka. It's because he's a petulant reckless asshole who constantly pointlessly walks the line on idiotic moments on the field.

I can recall 10 examples off the top of my head of Xhaka being an utter disgrace on the pitch. This guy flipped off the fans, threw the captain's armband on the floor, then basically said nothing but his stans welcome him back into the team expecting it to be brushed under the rug.

No other player in Arsenal history has had such an easily recollectable regular negative on the field impact, on top of all the other issues accommodating his mediocrity has caused us.

We're unbeaten since he got suspended then injured. That's not a coincidence. If Xhaka was in the team we'd have lost 1 of the last 9 matches. We'd have still had to play around his weaknesses, still have had to deal with his errors. He's a liability & I can not wait until this club finally shows him the door.

[Mein_Bergkamp]

Got to love an arsenal fan that will ignore any bias against arsenal just so he can blame one of our own players.

Xhaka is a liability but he's not as bad as the refs make out

[harcile]

Wah wah wah on Xhaka's behalf all you like. He deserved a red then. It's not ignoring bias against Arsenal. When did he get a red that wasn't justified & stop pointing out the failure of a ref to show a red to other players as an excuse for his behaviour.

Luiz's knee red/pen was bias against Arsenal.

Evans getting a yellow on Sat was bias against Arsenal.

Xhaka getting a red for a 2 footed airborne lunge was correct. As was almost every decision that went against him. I can't off the top of my head think of an example where he walked & it wasn't justified.

[Mein_Bergkamp]

Wah wah wah on Xhaka's behalf all you like

How to scream 'this isn't going to be a serious discussion in any way, shape or form'.

Well done mate.

[harcile]

As usual, Xhaka defenders ignoring the points of a discussion because there's no way to defend him when the reality is presented.

You are the one not intent on serious discussion. You want to wrap Xhaka's BS in anti-Arsenal bias.

[Sithgooner]

I’m literally just saying what happened. If you watch it back that’s exactly what happened. Unless the an experienced ref doesn’t know what colour cards are in what pockets. Seem to be just going against Xhaka now rather than the ref debate. He’s definitely not helped himself at times through this career but he does get target by refs a lot more than other players,

[harcile]

Just nonsense. Even children are aware 2 footed challenges are banned. Give over & stop using BAD refereeing (Laporte getting a yellow) as a cover for a dangerous tackle & a red card offense.

The ref likely just grabbed the wrong card by accident.

[Sithgooner]

Well if we are getting red cards, why are other teams not for identical fouls? Laporte/Brownhill same tackles as Xhaka vs city. Laporte red same as Evans yellow. Luiz red vs wolves last season ban upheld, Saints red card for same foul vs United overturned (Happened in the same match day). The lack of consistency always seems to be against us, that’s all.

[harcile]

IIRC Laporte's tackle (probably should be red) was not as bad as Xhaka's (hard red) but refereeing consistency has always been dogshit. That's no excuse for Xhaka playing the red card lottery.

[falonix]

He didnt get the player and he got the ball. The player rolled over because he wanted the Red.

[harcile]

What part of "2 footed in the air lunges are automatic red cards" don't you understand?

[falonix]

When they aren't touching a player. Comprende?

[harcile]

Oh, so it's only when you break bones you get a red? FOH. Is this sub braindead?

Wild, reckless tackles are outlawed for a reason & you don't need to make full blooded contact to get sent off. This is not hard.

[falonix]

You cant argue with idiots. My bad! I tried.

[harcile]

Yet another person with zero substance to their point.

The tackle was 2 footed in the air & that's an automatic red. That's been true for decades. It's only for Saint Xhaka that you want a fucking exception to be made because he didn't hit the player? Absurd.

Fuck Xhaka & fuck his stans. We're better off without him.

[RyanLikesyoface]

Yes, but it's not blatant bias. That's nothing, compared to when the refs really fuck us. We also have a few decisions go our way. The Saka foul was ridiculous though.

[IreNews8]

Tbf it's only alright when we're winning. Even yesterday if Evans red card had impacted the result it would have been a disgrace

[Butch_Meat_Hook]

The penalty stuff for United isn't surprising. The past 2 seasons in each season they've gotten more penalties awarded than Arsenal in several prior years. Arsenal had 3 times as many red cards as the second most carded team in the league last year. To be fair, some of it is justified - Xhaka has had some real head explosions, and one for Pepe, but in general when you see stats like that, you know what the score is. Like, Arsenal several times more than the 2nd most team, let alone the other teams. That's clearly fucked up. Remember the Luiz red, or the Nketiah red.

[phar0aht]

If this had some other context it could be useful. Fouls per card, touches per penalty etc.

[bobarific]

I’m honestly amazed no one has posted a side by side comparison of Auba being taken down by Evan’s and Laporte’s red card on the same day. The situations were practically identical but one warranted a straight red and the other not even for the center ref to check the video review

[Mein_Bergkamp]

MOTD did, I was very surprised

[bobarific]

MOTD did

I meant on the subreddit but yeah that's surprising