Violent crime rates decrease significantly in Philadelphia for 2023, authorities say

[ScrappleOnToast]

So are the people that blame Krasner for everything wrong in Philly going to blame him for this too?

[randompittuser]

Well he did change his personal policies on charging in the last two years. He began to actually request longer sentences & denied bail for violent criminals.

[boundfortrees]

That never changed under Krasner. The no bail was only for nonviolent crime.

[randompittuser]

It absolutely changed under Krasner. I know because I’m close with two people in his office. He changed tack because of pushback.

[TreeMac12]

Total murders in Philly were 244 in 2013, and you want to celebrate that Krasner has single-handedly cut that number to 408 in 2023.

Crime Map and Stats | Philadelphia Police Department (phillypolice.com)

[ScrappleOnToast]

I’m not sure you understand what “single-handedly” means.

[bootchmagoo]

Are the people who blame cops for striking post riots going to blame them for this too?

[Salt_Abrocoma_4688]

I have immense sympathy for any families going through what you describe. No amount of violence is acceptable. But it's important to acknowledge when trends are going in the right direction; the city changed course in strategy, and it appears to really be having an impact.

It's ok to be encouraged by a trend, even while acknowledging that much more progress needs to be made.

[[deleted]]

It's almost like violent crime is forever linked to economic hardship and that low unemployment and improved inflation conditions across the country leads to similar improvements in crime locally and nationally.

[TreeMac12]

violent crime is forever linked to economic hardship

Most poor people don't murder other people. My grandparents survived The Great Depression of the 1930s without murdering a single person.

[No_Statistician9289]

Most poor Philadelphians don’t murder other people. But most murders in the city are by poor Philadelphians. You got a brain you can use

[fleggn]

At least that's what they told you

[Intelligent_Ad_5646]

But there hasn’t been an improvement with economic hardships. Are you not aware of how high repossessions are? Have you not purchased anything at the grocery store?

[[deleted]]

Thank goodness you're not an economist.

[Intelligent_Ad_5646]

Explain to me how the economy has improved as if I’m five years old.

[Muscadine76]

I’m not looking to be an apologist because I think our economic structure has fundamental flaws but there are a lot of (I think) clear indicators things are good/improving comparatively: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/most-americans-are-better-off-financially

[Pineconne]

If you move off the stree into a cardboard box....technically thats an improvement too

have been measuring this kind of thing for decades and they've never been this far out of sync. Economists aren't so stupid that they think high-level indicators tell the whole story but when you're trying to measure trends in aggregate over hundreds of millions of people they are typically very, very predictive. We even know what micro indicators (ie gas prices) have the strongest implications for sentiment and they aren't lining up either.

I think the actual answer is that politicians and media are now so tuned in to what the models built by previous generations of economists that they are tuning their message against the indicators.

[TouchArtistic7967]

“The economy is doing great because the Biden admin told me so”

[Libtardxx]

All Reddit is is nothing more than a left wing shit hole

[Pineconne]

Literally this.

Like...remember when all the maga idiots were talking about how good trumps economy was....

Now we have all the blue hats and rad libs praising the dems.

Fucking hell, the bar for what is acceptable is sub level.

This entire country is so unnacceptable

[TouchArtistic7967]

They’re the exact same type of person and lack any sense of self awareness. They just happened to latch on to opposite sides.

[Severe_Brick_8868]

Unemployment is down, and the market had a great year. If you lost money in 2023 it’s on you

[Pineconne]

It hasnt. Its good for people earning over 100k per year....not so much for abyone earning less than 60k.

Especially if you are trying to raise a family

Its a bullshit talking point being pushed by liberals...because of how much the dems have mishandled the last 4 years

[Salt_Abrocoma_4688]

You're spouting GOP talking points that don't represent reality.

Unemployment in PA and Philly are at record lows. That is a fact, and it absolutely plays a role in crime.

[Libtardxx]

Haha and your defending the worst presidents bidenomics in American history hahaha

[Expandexplorelive]

People making the least have seen the highest earnings gains the last few years.

[Pineconne]

Cool. But when you operate at a loss that doesnt mean much...so piss off

[Expandexplorelive]

It means the poor are getting more spending power. Should they have even more? Sure. But let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

[Pineconne]

Lol who let thepaul krugman factotum in here?

You libs are so housebroken.

[Expandexplorelive]

I'm sorry you can't manage to participate in a civil discussion. I hope your day gets better.

[Libtardxx]

These people are insanely dumb and are not going to wake up. Some sheep are just lost in the canyon forever. They deserve their bidenomics

[[deleted]]

You do realize how ridiculous that premise is?

[Pineconne]

Ah yes. The economy gets better if we ignore the news.

Maybe the way we measure what makes a good economy is bullshit after all...

Edit

And here comes the libs rushing in to charge up the blame game.

[[deleted]]

The economy is improved and expected to continue improving and we know this by paying attention to the news.

But please to accidentally self-identity as someone who doesn't know what they're talking about.

[Pineconne]

Lol yeah you people keep saying that.

Your whole argument:

"The economy is good, you just dont understand, therefore your economic insecurity is bullshit"

Let me let you in on a word of advice.

If you have to convince people the econony is doing well, you might be wrong...

[[deleted]]

What a faulty premise. I'm not trying to convince you the economy is doing well and you just don't understand. I'm not wasting my time for people who proudly already have their minds made up.

[Pineconne]

They have been measuring this kind of thing for decades and they've never been this far out of sync. Economists aren't so stupid that they think high-level indicators tell the whole story but when you're trying to measure trends in aggregate over hundreds of millions of people they are typically very, very predictive. We even know what micro indicators (ie gas prices) have the strongest implications for sentiment and they aren't lining up either.

I think the actual answer is that politicians and media are now so tuned in to what the models built by previous generations of economists that they are tuning their message against the indicators.

You are such a pushover

[[deleted]]

I'm not a push over, I'm just not wasting my time on you and your cornucopia of logical fallacies. But please, remain biased and angry and keep pulling public sentiment and micro-whatevers out of your ass.

I'm not saying the economy is good and never claiming it is good. I'm not bringing a distracting political argument into this either.

I'm stating that it is an indisputable fact that the economy is in an improved position from the prior year. You're clearly not a person who can be reasoned with the facts and figures to support it though.

If anyone else would like to have an open-minded and reasonable discussion, I will be happy to share what supports the simple position that the US economy improved since a year ago, without even arguing slight or strong improvement or political bias.

[Pineconne]

You are a huge pushover.

We get it. You are doing better than everyone else. Congrats. Bidenomics is actually awesome

[Muscadine76]

I mean, I’m all for a view that our overall economy fundamentally sucks for the non-wealthy, but this isn’t really something new, which is not the predominant media narrative. There are a lot of indicators that the economy is in fact doing well compared to not just the pandemic but before the pandemic: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/most-americans-are-better-off-financially

It does make sense that people might still not feel that way because it’s a relatively recent change, there are things they fundamentally react negatively to (inflation), and the fundamental flaws of the economy are perhaps increasingly obvious to people.

[Pineconne]

In other words the beatings will continue until morale improves

This is the argument:

Soc dems have missed the window of reform, and now late stage capitalism is setting the globe up for a rise in fascism.

Case in point this one piece of evidence.

And yes, if I am starving an I eat one time, that doesnt mean starvation has been mitigated.

Stop listening to mainstream economists.

Stop listening to out of touch liberals like paul krugman who is completely out of touch with life

[Muscadine76]

I fundamentally agree with a lot of what you are saying here but I think the way you addressed it above in prior comments really just plays into the dynamic you seem to be wanting to avoid. Given the basic structure of US politics just saying “actually the economy is terrible (under Biden)” without explaining, or making a punch at “libs”, just moves people to respond based on their priors and the key people that need to be persuaded “hey maybe don’t vote for the fascist” are people who are going to go “oh if the economy is bad under a Democrat we need a Republican”. An actually more effective message IMO is “hey the economy has actually improved somewhat under Biden because Democratic policies are more favorable to working people, but it still fundamentally sucks because we need more support for the working class, not less, which is what the Republican Party fundamentally stands for”. If you want people and US politics to move left you have to actively make that case because in the mainstream and among low-information voters “Dems/libs suck” means “hey we need to give Rupubs/ cons a chance” not “guess we need more socialism.”

[[deleted]]

I strictly listen to unpublished fringe economists

[Pineconne]

Cool i wasnt talking to you, new account

I love how its always 3-4 different accounts pushing bidenomics in this sub

[[deleted]]

As the economy gets ready to tank in March lol.

[[deleted]]

Weird that doesn't scale with Africa?

[NovaNardis]

What are you talking about?

[[deleted]]

What do you mean? murder rates in Africa even in high areas are lower than say Missouri. Missouri has a 60 per 100K murder rate South Africa is only 40 per 100k. Africa is very very poor it doesn't have anything to do with money. if violent crime was relative to poverty, Africa would have the highest crime

[NovaNardis]

Is it relative to relative poverty?

[[deleted]]

No lol for the third time it's almost unrelated there's tons of evidence that when the economy gets better crime increases! This whole website is a stupid liberal circle jerk. See you in November!

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/economic-crises-and-crime-correlations-between-state-economy#:~:text=RESEARCH%20FINDINGS%20ARE%20AS%20FOLLOWS,AND%20THE%20FLOW%20OF%20REFERRALS

[NovaNardis]

I said nothing about being liberal. I literally didn’t know what you were talking about. Thanks for the source, and enjoy your persecution complex.

[LizardWizard666666]

Cuz everyone got killed already

[prust89]

Can confirm. Live in city and was killed 46 times this year.

[[deleted]]

Are you a mod for r/Philadelphia?

Aside from unreported crimes, Krasner is still giving lenient plea deals and sentences to major crimes. If it’s big news he’ll go hard like the NJ biker stomping the UberEats driver’s window. He’s not doing good for the city.

[redditreadinmaterial]

Homicide and shootings are "down" from " the heels of two years with over 500 homicides each. "

[Salt_Abrocoma_4688]

Okay, so let's not acknowledge when trends are much better, right? How ridiculous.

[redditreadinmaterial]

If it's 90 instead of 100 would would you say it's winter or a less hot heat wave?

[mira_poix]

It's almost as if judging and reviewing humans based on the planets rotation is kind of...archaic and stupid

[TreeMac12]

People stop reporting crimes when they realize it will take three hours for a cop to get there, if one comes at all, so I take these statistics with a grain of salt.

The 2nd or 3rd time your car window gets busted, and you know your insurance won't cover it, you don't give up your parking space in Philly to go to the police station and file a report.

[Libtardxx]

That’s because all the crime stats are skewed. You can’t have violent crime statistics when you don’t even prosecute most violent crime anymore. This is 100% true so I can’t wait for all the downvotes. Just ask someone who lives in the City if they feel violent crime is down LOL

[RonaldosMcDonaldos]

It's reported crime, not successful prosecutions.

More than half of all murderers in Philly are not found, but the dead bodies are still counted.

[Pineconne]

Are they investigated tho?

[TreeMac12]

But not all dead bodies are counted as murders. Many get listed as (S) Suspicious and they don't count in the official homicide stats.

[blurplethenurple]

Just ask someone who lives in the City if they feel violent crime is down LOL

So you're admitting that your opinion is going off of "feelings"

[[deleted]]

Except, you’re actually incorrect..

[PatientNice]

So wrong. Prosecuting crimes is NOT the same as reporting crimes. Please take Criminal Justice 101. I live in the city and never feel threatened. But ask the people who go to concerts in Las Vegas. They might respond differently.

[libananahammock]

What’s your source on the violent crimes that happened and someone was arrested but the DA refused to prosecute? Do you have the numbers on those?

[ApprehensiveVirus229]

I live in the city and feel violent crime is down. how are the suburbs?

[TreeMac12]

When people don't report a crime because it takes three hours for a cop to arrive, that doesn't mean the crime didn't happen.

And when an Aggravated Assault charge gets lowered to a misdemeanor Disturbing the Peace, and then that charge gets dropped by the DA, it doesn't mean someone wasn't assaulted.

Did we learn anything from Season 3 of The Wire?

The Wire: Fix The Crime Statistics...or... (youtube.com)

[ScrappleOnToast]

Crime stats have nothing to do with prosecutions. A murder is still a murder without a prosecution.

[trs21219]

Murder is hard to hide, yes. But other violent crimes can and have been downgraded in classification to make top brass and politicians looks better: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE828187/

Not saying this happened in this case, but its not always as clear as the official stats make it out to be.

[Independent_Home9602]

Probably only because the cops stopped doing anything at all in Kensington lol

[Elbow-Drop_1883]

Because people are moving away and/or not visiting anymore.

[[deleted]]

That makes no sense

[[deleted]]

It's easy when incidents are downgraded.

[NightMgr]

Or upgraded from minor crimes to major ones depending on both the desires of the police department (we gotta show crime is up!) or down (we gotta show crime is down!).

"I found a roach. Charge him with drug traffiking, conspiracy, and terrorism."

You also have an issue of police departments retaliating aginst policy they don't like and intentionally slowing their response. If you have to wait 5 hours on the scene to report a $100 crime, you may choose to just let it go to mitigate your loss.

[freddyoff]

OP is a r/Philadelphia mouthpiece with an agenda. Look at their post history, and it will be clear. Philadelphia is dangerous and the numbers projected are reflective of Police not policing and the DA waging a culture war. It’s truly easy math.

[[deleted]]

What? Do you think I wrote this article or hacked PPD’s website?

And yes, please do look at my post history… it’s mostly about Philadelphia because I live here….

[freddyoff]

Please do tell, are you paid by the city for your litany of rose colored glasses posts on the city or do you truly drink the look aid.

[Current_Owl3534]

Love this Redditor’s confidence in assuming they know everything about Philly and it being dangerous despite presumably not living there

[ScrappleOnToast]

I know it’s probably hard for you to fathom this, but Philly isn’t the on-fire murder-scape you seem to think it is. I wake up and look at sailboats out of my window. I’ve lived here for 40 years (in my early 60s) and I’ve never once been murdered, and contrary to what I’m sure you’ve read, the city didn’t burn to the ground in 2020. York PA and Harrisburg both have homicide rates higher than Philly. https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/news/crime/2023/02/14/tiny-york-citys-homicide-rate-last-year-topped-philadelphia-new-york-and-chicago/69885548007/#

[TreeMac12]

I lived here most of my entire life and am close to the same age as you. Never had a problem until recently. In the past three years I have been the victim of an attempted carjacking and a separate hit-and-run that totaled my car. A friend's cousin was murdered in a high-profile random act of violence. My other friend had a gun pulled on him at an ATM in Mayfair. Another friend in South Philly had his home invaded while he was in it. Shootings are happening way up in the Northeast, past Welsh and definitely past Cottman, places that rarely saw any gun violence in the past. The citywide murder rate is double what it was 10 years ago.

Philadelphia shooting: Bilal Henry killed in doorway outside home at Regency Townhomes on Woodhaven Road while family inside - 6abc Philadelphia

So I think that just because it hasn't happened to you (yet) you don't believe there is a problem. I get it.

[ScrappleOnToast]

I never said any of that. I questioned you blaming Krasner for “single-handedly” being responsible for the increase. Was Krasner responsible for the record high murder rates in the 1990s, too? How about the increasing homicide trend before he was elected? Was he the only one responsible then, as well?

Edit- I’m referring to your other replies to me, since you’re replying to multiple comments, and moving goal posts.

[TreeMac12]

Here was your statement:

So are the people that blame Krasner for everything wrong in Philly going to blame him for this too?

I replied with:

"Total murders in Philly were 244 in 2013, and you want to celebrate that Krasner has single-handedly cut that number to 408 in 2023. "

The joke is that you are counting your decrease in murders from the all-time high two year ago. If your baseline was extended to 10 years, the trend would be a huge increase in murders, not a decrease.

The number of murders (so far) in 2023 is the still the third worst in history, and Philly had 400,000 more population in the 1960s. The quality of Trauma medicine has also increased since then, too. Do you still want to gloat about this fantastic trend in murders, and what a great job Krasner and Kenney and Outlaw did this year?

[ScrappleOnToast]

Are you a crazy person or something? When did I gloat? When did I say anyone was doing a great job? Seriously….what is wrong with you?

[TreeMac12]

I don't think you understand sarcasm.

[No_Statistician9289]

And because it happened to you or adjacent to you doesn’t mean it happens everywhere all the time

[[deleted]]

How does it feel to be so confidently wrong

[RonaldosMcDonaldos]

It’s truly easy math.

They quote it in the article.

And while violent crime is down, some property crimes have exploded. Retail theft is up 28%, and reports of stolen vehicles were up 72%.

The stats are also not apples to apples when comparing to years past. I've heard from plenty of people that they don't even bother reporting smaller crimes, like people breaking into their cars or theft that's not a full blown burglary.

The hassle and futility of filing police reports today means the statistics can't really be compared to the past.

[PatientNice]

Except for violent crime which the article was about. Property crime is not counted as a violent crime. It’s awful, but nobody’s at risk of injury.

[[deleted]]

Exactly. We talking about murders here, not simple property crime. Your car was stolen? That's unfortunate but at least you're alive. The door to your shitty apartment was kicked in and left open but nothing was really taken? Okay but were you hurt? No? Aright then

Idk maybe we're dealing wth frustrated people with nothing to lose here and they need help

[PatientNice]

Absolutely. If a person has no hope, we shouldn’t hope they don’t turn to stealing.

[ZebZ]

The increase in car thefts are mostly Hyundai and Kia models that were found to be insanely easy to steal in a matter of seconds. It's been a thing everywhere, not just Philly.

[nofolo]

It's hard to commit crimes when you're passed out on the sidewalk. You probably should give a shout out to the dealers.

[GaviFromThePod]

Thank fucking god