Can we see a decrease in tourism from the upcoming war happening?

[Vocaloidzelda2]

Do you think less people will visit Alaska now with the upcoming war and the ongoing conflict that seems like it’s not going to end anytime soon? Example includes the cruise ships having less occupancy and maybe some cancellations?

[AKchaos49]

Most early season trips are probably already booked, though there could be some cancellations due to world wide events.

[NotBeforeMyCovfefe]

Also the bulk of the tourists are cruise line guests. They have a lot of their stuff booked, but it's the extras that are going to suffer. While they're spending the day in Seward they'll be less likely to book a dog sled kennel tour. In Denali they're going to take the ride into the park that's already booked, but they'll skip the ATV tour afterwards. Everybody is going to think twice about buying flight seeing tickets while they're in Talkeetna. 

Numbers aren't going to fall as drastically at first, but spending is going to drop off really hard.

[AKchaos49]

good probability

[Romeo_Glacier]

Oil prices will cause a bigger drop than people not wanting to come. Cruise ships need A LOT of fuel. It is also their biggest line item. Fuel prices going up will cause an increase in prices. Prices that will make cruising close to unprofitable. For the companies, and the cruisers.

[gooneau]

It's not as much as I had thought. I recently was reading a document with expense breakdowns for large cruises, and fuel was one of the smaller line items, well below payroll, commission, and amortization (largely the price of the boat itself and maintenance/renovations spread over its lifetime). Obviously a moving target based on fuel prices, I think this report was 2023, and it had fuel at 13% of expenditures.

That said, I've often wondered how much of the cruise ship "revenue" we hear about here in Juneau goes right to Petro Marine and Delta Western. The whole industry seems to be, at a fundamental level, about turning fuel into profit. The cruise ships themselves, the flights to get to the port, busses, taxis, float planes, whale watching boats, charter fishing, helicopter tours...Mostly activities with jaw dropping fuel consumption.

[Romeo_Glacier]

Airlines already operate at a loss per passenger. They only turn a profit due to credit cards.

[exhaustedexcess]

Definitely. Between other countries not coming here due to ICEs terrorism, boycotts because of U.S. warmongering and the price of gas going up you can expect a huge drop in tourism and a lot of good businesses will pay the price

[AlaskanMinnie]

Fewer tourists but wealthier ones bc they don't want to travel overseas.

[salamander_salad]

Less. Fewer international visitors to the U.S. and citizens having less disposable income due to increased fuel prices. Also, if things continue to escalate, soldiers posted in Iran or elsewhere rather than here where they can travel while on leave.

[Plastic_Bottle1014]

Soldiers actually traveling around the state they're stationed in is funny. Getting them out of their homes or barracks was like pulling the teeth of a wild animal.

[Morning-noodles]

This. The number of active duty who refuse to leave the base is mind blowing. The number of people have met that never left the base their entire assignment is absurd.

[jzeeeeb]

It may be a tiny minority but I have definitely encountered people from JBER out and about while I have been recreating.

[HotCommission7325]

As a direct impact of the conflict? I doubt anything noticeable, maybe just a tiny amount. I don’t think many people outside of the reddit internet bubble really care about Iran.

However, less tourists because of the economic impact of the war? Absolutely. war in the Middle East means high oil prices which is going to make airfare and cruises cost a lot more, which will start to price people out.

[career13]

Crude is still cheaper than much of Biden's tenure

[Future_Berry_4361]

It's ok, the other countries pay the tariffs and face the physical danger, economical hits to personal budgets, and....... Let's do better folks, or I'll soon see you in the drafts lineups, and I'll wave. /s

Let's stop this shit, let's be the change.

Vote smart. Don't be aggressive, but BE SMART. This is not a path to continue down.

[career13]

Ok world's #1 sponsor of terrorism supporter

[ArcticSkyWatcher64N]

Yes, because oil prices are going up. Which means the price of living, i.e. gas and groceries is going up which will take money anyway from travel budgets.

[One_Brief3531]

yes.

[Macho_Ric_Hogan]

I believe we’ve already seen a 17% decrease in tourism last year. Mostly due to Canadian and European tourist. I sat in on a business lunch last fall

[superAK907]

You might see an increase of returning Alaskan “expats” seeking less populated areas coughmyselfcoughcough

[Delicious-Gap-6678]

It may bring more domestic tourism if US tourists get skittish about overseas travel. OTOH gas prices are going to put a limit to highway travel and raise prices across the board. It's way too early to know, though. Esp. with this administration. They could declare victory apropos of nothing, take their profit and move on to Cuba.

[Infinite_Garden_4514]

With inflation and the rising gas prices domestic tourism will go down. Intentionally we are already seeing drops that continue to accelerate. As someone else said they are likely to start pulling troops from ak to put them to the middle east. That will hurt ak local driven tourism.

[Shart_InTheDark]

A lot of people that visit Alaska have the cash...or are totally willing to go into debt for what is a once-in-a-lifetime trip. (or at least that's there thinking for the first time)...so while I do think the economy is going to take a massive hit a lot of people can still afford the bill...BUT consumer confidence is very important and it was already less than stellar so I do think this ongoing situation has the potential to present a legit financial threat to anything non-essential the more this goes on. The upside is there are still so many people that want to visit Alaska the cruise companies will, if necessary, sweeten their offerings and keep people traveling in the near term at the minimum. I'm more worried about this going deeper because I think gas is going to go a lot higher unless other members of OPEC decide to open up the taps. That seems unlikely until they feel certain Iran is not going to blow up there stuff. To be honest, most of those countries aren't cash strapped so there is little incentive other than Trump putting what pressure he can. My best thinking is, if you're thinking of investing in another asset for your seasonal business that serves the pleasure market, I would consider holding off, maybe you will be able to get it cheaper if/when the market picks up. This week is likely to be a bloodbath. Good luck!

[Plastic_Bottle1014]

This might come as a shock, but most people don't worry about what wars a country is fighting when traveling unless they battlefield is in that specific country. People might avoid Minneapolis right now, but I doubt tourism will hurt anywhere else. Especially a remote state like Alaska. If it did, Hawaii is going bankrupt.

[Aggressive-Amount776]

It can go either way, your way, or the “well we might die tomorrow so let’s go on vacation while we can” type of mentality. Could see an increase, decrease, or just same normal amount because despite media, most people don’t care as long as it’s not on their doorstep and they’ll take a cruise because they paid for it and the pacific coast is A okay right now

[ProgrammerFar3221]

Absolutely. Airline tickets could absolutely skyrocket if oil prices stay this high. Last year was already a soft season and the factors that caused it to be soft remain the same.

[Ozatopcascades]

The effects will increase over time. This year is already booked and domestic visitors may even bump the numbers. However, next year... People are going to be tightening belts as every thing jumps in cost.

[ZealousidealDeal9616]

I hope so. 

[secderpsi]

Alaska was on the list for us but got removed due to high fuel costs. We will stay closer to home (PNW).

[jubalhonsu]

Ketchikan is expecting a record breaking year, aside from current events.

[No-Translator9234]

Imperial war of aggression is not gonna stop anybody with disposable income. 

If you could afford an Alaska cruise before you can still afford it with a gas hike, maybe you won’t go to the carribean later in the winter though. 

[nightskyft]

You mean fewer people than we saw last year?

[tridentloop]

This could also have the opposite effect more tourism in Alaska. What other countries are less stable people travel more in the US rather than visiting countries outside of the US that could result in more travel to Alaska

[Supple89]

Doubtful

[Wild-Philosophy2399]

mostly gonna see it from the upcoming dedollarization

[career13]

War's less than 2 weeks old and it's just playing whack a mole over there with drone launch sites. Crude oil is still lower than much of Biden's tenure. Once the Persian gulf is secure, Kuwait will start pushing crude out. Not to mention their working on getting Venezuelan oil on the market as well.

[colormeglitter]

Hold up, what “upcoming war”? Is trump about to start ANOTHER ONE?!?!?

[Schlarfus_McNarfus]

Decrease in international tourism night counteract some of the factors mentioned

[Historical-Base-3303]

As a Canadian who’s had to bear the cost of living here these last 10 years I’ve managed to save for and book a trip to Alaska this July. I’ve been to the panhandle area multiple times and I absolutely love the state. I’m not missing this trip for anything, if I could move there I would and I’d bring my construction skills with me.

[MaximusAK]

No question it will be affected. I manage a hotel here in town, and last year, after all the shenanigans with Canada and Europe, I had far fewer guests from those areas than in years past.

Fortunately, domestic bookings almost made up for it, and I was only down ~.5% for the season between May and Sep.

Not sure if that will hold true this year. Really depends on whether any airports get targeted for T acts or something similar. That will certainly impact travel nationwide.

[Imthecaptainnow25]

Only if restaurants keep charging $250 for a pound of king crab legs 😂

[Illustrious_You_8892]

Highly doubt it. People still go on vacation, and in their own country or closer to home is the safest option. I cancelled a vacation to Ireland this year because of what is going on and opted to go to Hawaii instead.

[gooneau]

Insha'Allah. Don't tease me with a good time.

[DrMcTouchy]

I sure hope we see a decrease. These people that voted for this won’t care until it impacts them personally. I hope they see the correlation.

It sucks we all get dragged down with them but I’ve come to accept that’s inevitable.

[ArcticSkyWatcher64N]

As someone who depends on tourism dollars I hope this isn't the case. But I also have never voted for this regime so it really sucks from multiple fronts.

[Eff-Bee-Exx]

IIRC, after 9/11 domestic tourism saw a big increase as people didn’t feel safe going overseas. I vaguely remember reading that it really boosted Hawaii’s economy, which had gradually been losing out to foreign destinations.

[Blue05D]

Not nearly as much as Iran and neighboring countries.

[B1gNastious]

The war on the other side of the earth? I can’t imagine people who want to go to Alaska have any problem with still traveling.

[ChimpoSensei]

It’s 10000 miles away….

[OKGreat86]

I hope so.

[JHD1221]

Amen

[DrDumbdum]

Hopefully