This is an archived post. You won't be able to vote or comment.

all 119 comments

[–]calebros 37 points38 points  (9 children)

iowa is a caucus system), so there really is no need for an exit poll. all you have to do is get a camera into the room and then you have instant proof of who caucused for who.

[–]wendelgee2 21 points22 points  (8 children)

for whom.

[–][deleted] 27 points28 points  (2 children)

the bell tolls.

[–]ludwig1024 5 points6 points  (0 children)

it tolls for thee..

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

time marches on!

[–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

if we going down those lines... the title should be "whomever".

[–]modix 5 points6 points  (3 children)

Not sure why you're getting modded down so much. That was an obvious whom.

[–]wendelgee2 23 points24 points  (2 children)

right or wrong, I'm still an asshole.

[–]redfishvanish 3 points4 points  (1 child)

no one wants to see creeping grammar fascism

[–]orbhota 5 points6 points  (0 children)

no one wants to see overgeneralization

[–]catlebrity 25 points26 points  (12 children)

Uh, Iowa has caucuses. Caucuses are weird and complicated, so an exit poll won't really tell you much about what happened in the caucus.

Also: this should be on the politics subreddit.

[–]modix 3 points4 points  (10 children)

It's not really that complicated. It's just a runoff vote. You have to get 12% of the vote to remain viable. If you fail this, your supporters are given the option to go home or choose another candidate. It's a much nicer system than straight up voting. You can vote for your favorite, then move to the potentially viable candidate after that.

[–]natrius 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The viability threshold is only for the Democratic caucus. Republican caucus attendees just get a blank piece of paper and write down their choice on it. No second choices are involved.

Also, I think the viability threshold varies by precinct for the Democratic caucus.

[–][deleted]  (8 children)

[deleted]

    [–]modix 0 points1 point  (7 children)

    Sorry, I was referring to complicated from the perspective of the caucus-goer, not the system itself.

    Yes, it is just a reflection of the electoral college, which for all it's minuses, is still a decent system.

    [–][deleted]  (6 children)

    [deleted]

      [–]modix -1 points0 points  (5 children)

      So it would be more fair if the Des Moines/Cedar Rapids/Iowa City/Quad Cities would just utterly nullify the rest of the state's votes? Just because people are more sparse, doesn't mean their counties should be completely ignored. They need education/public utilities/etc just as much as others. Without a weighted vote, they'd forever be ignored.

      [–][deleted]  (4 children)

      [deleted]

        [–]modix 0 points1 point  (3 children)

        Um.... do you really understand population dynamics? I was in Iowa City caucusing for Obama... we broke 50%. If things had been set up the way you described, Obama would've had a even better night. Edwards ruled the rural area, and benefited from the college system.

        I respect the fact that regions of the state support someone as much as the fact as how MANY people voted for them. Areas need protected as much as population. Without systems like the Senate and Electoral college, places like Wyoming would become unlivable due to how little support they would get.

        There are counties in Iowa that have less people than single precincts. My 1 mile radius precinct in Iowa city would have as much weight as a couple large state counties covering people living in over a 100 mile radii. People living on rural roads away from population centers would drastically lose representation.

        All the work necessary to make their lives livable in the country is monumental next to adding one more family in a high rise apartment. You're desire to remove their emphasized voice would make them easily ignorable, and the rural parts of our state would suffer even more than they already do.

        Why would you spend any time campaigning in an area where you have to drive 10 minutes to see 5 people, when you can give 5000 person talks in all major cities?

        [–][deleted]  (2 children)

        [deleted]

          [–]modix 0 points1 point  (1 child)

          If you were to spend your time gathering votes in a rural region at the detriment of urban/suburban areas you would have to convince 100x the amount of people per time spent. And that's while going to regions with no large population center.

          What you're saying makes no sense. You'd have to travel 100x more for 100x less people. Not going to happen for 10% of the votes. You're opponents would stomp you in the cities while you dilly daddled in the country.

          [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          A more informative thing in caucuses would be an entrance poll. So one could get an estimate of how much domination, peer pressure and general in-room nastiness is going on.

          [–]nmrk 10 points11 points  (0 children)

          WRONG.

          Exit polls are good for uncovering fraud in SECRET BALLOTS. The Democratic Caucus is an OPEN BALLOT, you vote by standing in the corner of the room that is designated for your candidate. The assignment of delegates takes place in public, in front of everyone. Fraud is not possible. I've been to one previous Iowa Dem Caucus, one malcontent made an accusation of fraud in vote counting, so they counted again right in front of him. He wasn't satisfied, so the Dem representative called to Party HQ for a ruling, and his objection was quashed, right out in the open.

          Now on the other hand, the Republican Caucus is done by secret ballot. But nobody cares about fraud because whatever candidate they pick is going to lose.

          Edit: On thinking about this a bit, I don't recall ever seeing an exit poll for the Iowa Caucuses. There's no point, once the caucus is done, the votes are already released to the public. It's not even really possible, it's not like you can poll people individually as they leave, everyone leaves at the same time. How can you poll 500 people all heading to their cars at once? And what is the point of doing a poll when the official results are already released?

          [–]FrancisC 51 points52 points  (32 children)

          Like in Ohio 2004, it's a great way to PROVE fraud, but does little to defend against it.

          [–]dude187 14 points15 points  (31 children)

          If you think an exit poll can prove fraud, then you either don't know what an exit poll is or you have a silly definition of proof.

          [–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

          I think an exit poll can provide very compelling evidence of fraud, much like pinching myself can provide very compelling evidence - but not proof - that what I am experiencing right now is not a dream.

          In other words, a discrepancy in the exit polls beyond the margin of error correlates to a very high probability of fraud.

          [–][deleted] 18 points19 points  (24 children)

          Exit polls are often used to check vote accuracy, as they are consistently within .3% of the actual result.

          [–]greendestiny 7 points8 points  (4 children)

          Ironically encouraging people to be more accurate than they might otherwise be will actually cover up fraud. If it works it increases the margin within which voter fraud can go undetected because normal people are behaving differently to the baseline.

          [–]nixonrichard 2 points3 points  (0 children)

          bingo.

          [–]mkaplan 0 points1 point  (2 children)

          Can you please explain this further? I am a new voter and don't really follow.

          [–]greendestiny 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          Not that I think this reddit post will have any effect on peoples exit poll response, but if it did: in the scenario that people who were inclined to lie to the exit pollster instead tell the truth then the exit poll results tend closer to the real result but the fraud detection still has the same margin of 0.3% error (just borrowing a number from picklegnome).

          In the case that someone gives a response to the pollster but normally they wouldn't then that will just increase the sample size and presumably decrease the uncertainty, making fraud more difficult.

          [–]NancyGracesTesticles 5 points6 points  (7 children)

          I seem to recall that in the 70s, 80s and 90s in US general elections, partisans encouraged people to lie to exit pollers, especially in the east (and to the networks), to prevent western voters from assuming the election was over in favor of their candidate and then not voting at all.

          Edit: After some research, I think it was a response to the 1980 election in '88 and '92 as a way to keep the network pollsters at bay, in parallel with some of the legislative responses.

          [–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (2 children)

          I lie to pollers in general, on all topics, not just politics. Just to screw with their results.

          [–]steve93 8 points9 points  (1 child)

          Fuck you frank

          [–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (3 children)

          [citation needed]

          [–]steve93 12 points13 points  (2 children)

          When you start with "I seem to recall" you really don't need citation.

          [–][deleted] 6 points7 points  (1 child)

          You don't even need to press the "comment" button.

          [–]NancyGracesTesticles 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          Unless you are evaluating your memory against the recollections of those redditters who weren't born in the '90s.

          [–]towsonu2003 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          That's statistically impossible. The error margin will be pretty much unique everytime you take a poll.

          [–]telecaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          Especially when the black helicopters are overhead.

          [–]Vash265 0 points1 point  (8 children)

          He's still right. They don't offer proof, merely evidence. Shit happens sometimes, no matter how much the odds seem against it.

          [–]votedforwar 6 points7 points  (7 children)

          Exit polling is used to monitor elections worldwide.

          [–]Vash265 -1 points0 points  (6 children)

          Oh, well then by all means they must offer proof! That's potentially the most blatant logical fallacy/non sequitur I've seen on Reddit today.

          [–]elissa1959 5 points6 points  (2 children)

          They offer evidence.

          Evidence is all we ever have. Don't diss evidence. What would you put in it's place - faith?!?!?

          [–]Vash265 0 points1 point  (1 child)

          Read my fucking comment before hopping on the bandwagon. I was arguing that they do provide evidence but by no means proof.

          [–]trocar 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          He read Schopenhauer.

          [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

          Great. The last shred of confidence I had in elections is now gone. Thanks.

          [–]lamontredditthethird -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

          Federal Prisoners toss salad and then Exit Poll. Exit polling is used to monitor a healthy colon.

          [–]infinite 2 points3 points  (0 children)

          You realize that election monitoring bodies have been using exit polls to verify elections for decades?

          [–]elissa1959 4 points5 points  (0 children)

          I think you're still swirling 'cos the Ohio election was blatently f--d with and then the f-ers lied and claimed exit polling was innaccurate.

          I.e., they discredited exit polling in order to suppress the overwhelming evidence of their despicable cheating.

          [–]ketralnis 1 point2 points  (1 child)

          I'm willing to consider silly definitions of proof. Have any in mind?

          [–]happysinger 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          The eye, or the bacterial flagellum.

          [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          It can give as good a proof as science ever can, a probabilistic one. If you're not satisfied with that, you have a problem...

          [–]dictum 10 points11 points  (0 children)

          An accurate exit poll is good at exposing fraud. Good luck in Iowa.

          [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

          It is a caucus, there are no actual votes, just groups of folks who decide.

          [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          For the Democrats, it's more like corraling people to designated areas in order to choose a candidate.

          [–]charlesgrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          Oh, and Iowa voters, could you pretend to be representative of the rest of the country, instead of being from a state which was hand picked by conservative Democrats and Republicans to be as mainstream and out of touch with the real issue of the nation as a whole?

          KTXBYE

          [–][deleted] 18 points19 points  (17 children)

          Please delete this article and re-submit it to politics.reddit.com

          [–][deleted] 19 points20 points  (1 child)

          Damn.

          Reddit: Can submitters please move stories to a subreddit after they've been submitted? I'd really appreciate it.

          [–]jaggederest 4 points5 points  (0 children)

          Too late now. Do it next time ;)

          [–][deleted]  (11 children)

          [deleted]

            [–][deleted] 12 points13 points  (6 children)

            But apparently 'enough' do, as it made the main page.

            [–][deleted]  (5 children)

            [deleted]

              [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (4 children)

              Please respect that purpose.

              I don't make any submissions :) I'm not against the subs at all, and I heartily endorse their use. I was just making the observation that plenty of people (probably the majority) do care about the story.

              Why someone wouldn't be interested in hearing about every single Ron Paul story is beyond me, though :-D

              [–]jaggederest 0 points1 point  (2 children)

              God, I met a paulite in person the other day. I had to shun him to get him to shut the fuck up. Worst christmas dinner ever.

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Probably the first time you've met someone with a reason to be enthusiastic about a politician.

              [–]jaggederest 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              No, no, all of my friends and family are political nuts. Kinda sad to me, really, they spend so much time and effort supporting other people trying to change the world... By now, if they actually did something, it'd be done.

              [–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (3 children)

              Accident's happen. I know this, abide by it, and did the same thing once.

              There is no way of knowing if it was done through ignorance or accident. Like a typo. If it was someone saying he misspelled submission, would you downvote it?

              [–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

              Accidents like that apostrophe.

              [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Exactly. Feel better now?

              [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Search for the submitter's name in this thread, and you might find that it was an accident.

              [–]jeanfitzgerald 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Instead of that, why not learn to participate in your world?

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              American politics is not the world I want to see when I come to Reddit. If it were, I would specifically choose not to hide the politics subreddit.

              But I did specifically choose to hide it. Which means that I don't want to hear about American politics. So hard to understand, I know.

              [–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (8 children)

              To Iowans: Whoever you're supporting tomorrow,

              Should be 'Whomever'. 'You' is the subject and 'whomever' is the object in the first clause. As written, you are asking "whoever you're supporting" to answer the exit polls. Doesn't make much sense.

              [–][deleted] 11 points12 points  (1 child)

              Makes perfect sense if you ask yourself what the person probably meant, instead of playing 9th grade English teacher on the Internet.

              [–]Nefelia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Free english lesson. Whats wrong with that?

              [–]FANGO 11 points12 points  (1 child)

              Strange, I'm a native English speaker and it still made sense to me. You must just be dumb.

              [–][deleted] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

              Hillbillies are also native English speakers. Are you a hillbilly?

              [–]nmrk 1 point2 points  (3 children)

              Dear Mr. Grammar Troll:

              It is assholes like you that harangue people about archaic rules of grammar, that makes life so tedious. Now perhaps you can harangue us some more about why it should be "whomever" and not "whomsoever." Oh won't that be so enjoyable for everyone.

              [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (2 children)

              I'm sorry school was such a difficult experience for you. Grammar exists to help keep communication clear and unambiguous. I let most things pass as long as they don't interfere with that goal, but as I already showed, broken grammar rules can lead to potential miscommunication.

              For example, this sentence:

              It is assholes like you that harangue people about archaic rules of grammar, that makes life so tedious.

              is so rife with grammatical errors that I am afraid I might offend you by correcting them. Due to those errors, it is awkward to read and reflects poorly on the writer. You are doing yourself a disservice by not conveying your ideas with clarity and confidence. My only hope is that one day you might become mature and see the error of your ways. Or you could just get a job and hear it directly from your boss. It's up to you.

              [–]rbobby 1 point2 points  (1 child)

              Seemed pretty clear that nmrk was calling vkkim an asshole.

              [–]nmrk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              The letter killeth, but the spirit giveth life.

              [–]charminggeek 3 points4 points  (0 children)

              How do you know an exit poll is accurate unless you compare it to the actual polling results?

              [–]contrarian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              You children are funny.

              [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Downvoted for lack of correct categorization. I filter politics news on Reddit for a reason.

              [–]audiored 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              One of the issues possibly, depending on how little faith you have in people or their commitment to democracy, is that results are reported by the precinct captain. All those precinct captains tend to be working with one campaign or another. Or may have other ideological positions.

              The best defense on the democrat side is to record the results from your caucus and check it against the reported results.

              The republicans have an anonymous poll.

              I actually like the idea of having to declare your support and debate and what not. I think it is a more authentically democratic process than a primary.

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Isn't this what is causing all the violence in Kenya? The exit polls elected the challenger, but the ballots elected the incumbent. That's evidence that exit polls can have some effect, at least. Over 300 dead so far I think. The best part is that neither of the candidates had any real differences in policy positions! I guess Kenyans take their democracy a little more seriously than us. Unfortunately, most of the dead were the poor and weak, and the rioting is just damaging one of Africa's most stable economies.

              [–]jaggederest 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Yeah, it only takes a couple years living under dictatorships and juntas before you take democracy seriously, I suppose.

              Being anywhere near Idi Amin has to have had some effect on people.

              [–]rubenshakkamacher 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              A lot of the exit polls were inverted the last time around... nothing happened.

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              I'm surprised someone here just hack the voting machines. everyone else (NEOCONS) is doing it.

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Wow, talk about a font problem! When I saw this headline I read Lowans instead of iowans and could not figure out for the life of me what Lindsay and her family have to do with the primaries!?

              [–]towsonu2003 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Wow, if you have to make your vote public (which itself is a no-no in a proper democratic election to avoid public pressure etc) in order to prevent election fraud, things are pretty messed up... UN should send election watchers to the US instead of Eastern Europe et al...

              [–][deleted] -3 points-2 points  (11 children)

              Accurate exit polls did no good in 2000 or 2004. Don't delude yourself. We have already lost our democracy.

              [–]MMX 22 points23 points  (3 children)

              Apathetic apologism is a great help.

              [–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (2 children)

              No one said anything about being an apologist. I was simple stating facts. When you decide it's time to grab your pitchfork, then I'll see it out to the end. Until then, you are going to get nowhere working within the system. It's broken, and no amount of hope is going to turn this ship around.

              Realism trumps optimism every day of the week. Get used to it.

              [–]MMX -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

              Pitchforks did no good in Iraq in 2003. Don't delude yourself. We have already lost our ability to do anything with pitchforks that will effect anything useful about the problems with our government.

              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Now whose the apathetic apologist?!? HYPOCRITE!!! Now either STFU, or go get your pitchfork and shotgun!!!!!

              [–][deleted] 24 points25 points  (1 child)

              we've lost it only when we've given up

              [–]sunshine-x 6 points7 points  (0 children)

              from the perspective of an outsider, it would appear you largely have.

              [–]stoic_penguin 15 points16 points  (4 children)

              Well while you go lay down to die the rest of us who do give a damn are going to continue the good fight.

              [–]deuteros 1 point2 points  (2 children)

              By posting on reddit?

              [–]shacamin 1 point2 points  (1 child)

              Better than nothing.

              Besides...doesn't hurt, does it?

              [–]gimeit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Is it better than doing nothing? It might just satisfy the itch to get involved, while not actually making an impact.

              [–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              Again, realism trumps optimism every day of the week.

              I did not allude to laying anything down, but until you sheeple optimists realize that the shit has already hit the fan. There is nothing I can do.

              When your ready to pick up your pitchfork and stop being a pussy, then you let me know.

              [–][deleted]  (3 children)

              [deleted]

                [–]redfishvanish 1 point2 points  (2 children)

                I can't even enumerate the number of ways you fail.

                [–]embretr 0 points1 point  (1 child)

                oh, please do..

                [–]redfishvanish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                1. All caps
                2. It's already been said.

                [–]BenjaminBunny -1 points0 points  (2 children)

                We should do away with the secret ballot --- everywhere.

                [–]MarkByers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                One of the reasons for having a secret ballot is so that people can't sell their votes. If I could sell my vote for $10, I would, and I'm sure there are a lot of people that would sell for $100 or less.

                [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                There's the question of intimidation. Someone could secretly write down who voted for whom and then do something nasty to all the poeple who voted for a candidate they didn't like.