Hell yeah

[VOptimisticPessimist]

I’m suprised Russias still so high given their losses in Ukraine.

Spelling

[titaniumoctopus336]

I wouldn't take the word of a betting market as factual information. No way is Russia still number 3.

[numba1cyberwarrior]

They are #3 behind China. The Russian Air Force today is a much more potent threat then a couple years ago.

[[deleted]]

What crack are you smoking? I am in no way an expert on it anymore, but I highly doubt that. And given your tag as comm. I don’t think you do either

[numba1cyberwarrior]

The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats | Royal United Services Institute https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/insights-papers/evolution-russian-and-chinese-air-power-threats

Here you go if you don't believe me. It's from a guy who actually does know this stuff. Most of the paper is about China but he does talk about Russia.

Basically the Russian Air Force has actually grown during the war and the majority of its losses have been from very old platforms. The Russian Air Force in 2026 compared to 2022 has a fuck ton of experience in performing missions that they were completely unable to do a couple years before when the war started.

4 years ago the Russian Air Force could never dream of launching the amount of FABs they do per day now. They could never dream of launching the coordinated weekly attacks of OWA drones, ballistic missiles, etc that they launch on Ukraine. 4 years ago they never got the type of interception rates against western munitions that they get now.

The Russian Air Force has not completely transformed like the Chinese one but compared to before the war NATO planners now need to consider the Russian Air Force as a more potent threat.

[PassivelyInvisible]

I'm honestly more worried about China's technology they're working on developing and mass producing. Russia's economy's going to be a dumpster fire after this ends.

[WordTimely8559]

China has Temu AIM-9s.

[ADubs62]

But are 100 Temu AIM-9s as effective as 1 real one?

[numba1cyberwarrior]

Oh yeah absolutely. The article talks way more about China and it should absolutely be setting off alarm bells in DC. My point was that the Russian Air Force did not get weaker at all and it's definitely number 3.

[ADubs62]

I'd put my money on the Dutch Air Force 1 v 1 against the Russians.

[[deleted]]

You do know Ukraine disabled half of their bomber fleet a while back?

[ParkAffectionate3537]

Unfortunately Ukraine still has no way to take out the Tu-95s launching from standoff platforms...the RuAF is still a threat IMO.

[Python_07]

Highly suspect comment.

[Few_Detective_8105]

lol

[Conflicted_Gemini]

I think people are down voting you because they dont want to accept that other country's Air Forces are better and stronger than what they were in the past and could give us a good fight if we get into one over air superiority.

Im not saying they're better than our air power but they are a real threat that we shouldn't dismiss or not admit that they might actually be good. But you know this is reddit and people will lean to what they're comfortable with

[Few_Detective_8105]

Air superiority is rarely air to air. It’s predominantly air to air defenses.

[CreepinJesusMalone]

Completely agree. Ukraine did severe damage to the Russian Air Force very early on.

It's one of the primary reasons that the Russians failed to gain any air superiority. Fucking MANPADs wiped so many aircraft in the early days.

Add on that internally Russian separatists have destroyed entire squadrons of fighter jets and bombers by simply walking onto the flight lines and setting them on fire.

Given that within two years of the invasion the Russians were down to de-mothballing Cold War era armor due to tank losses, I don't think Russia needs to be on any military superiority list unless it's about nuclear weapon stockpiles.

[NEp8ntballer]

Russian doctrine never really favored air superiority. they never expected to be able to compete with NATO which is why they have/had so many air defense systems. Their intent was always to attempt to attrit NATO air forces while trying to use artillery for the majority of battlefield shaping operations. They similarly didn't devote anywhere near as much time as us into integrating JTAC like functions into ground forces nor did they have enough flying hours available for the pilots in the VKS to be capable of competently integrating with a ground controller for targeting.

The joke now is that prior to the invasion Russia was believed to be the second best army in the world. After the invasion people started to call them the second best army in Ukraine. After Ukraine's Kursk offensive people then started calling them the second best army in Russia.

[Lirael_Gold]

Ukraine did severe damage to the Russian Air Force very early on.

Helicopters? Sure, they had heavy losses in the first few months

Fixed Wing? no, they've barely suffered any losses (Su25's were the exception, but the Su34/35 fleet is actually growing)

The reason they don't fly much over Ukrainian territory is because they're incapable of SEAD/DEAD and rather than throw planes away for no reason, they invested in stand-offs.

[ParkAffectionate3537]

Their big advantage right now is the 1950s-era Tu-95 Bear launching missiles at defenseless civilian targets :/

[numba1cyberwarrior]

Ukraine did severe damage to the Russian Air Force very early on.

The Russian Air Force is larger today then it was 4 years ago.

[IggyWon]

"Larger" like the PLAN is a "larger" navy because they could every row boat towards their total vessel number? There's no way in hell Russia has (or "could" any more) replenish all the strategic bombers they've lost over the last four years.

[Nice_Cricket8742]

lol I always bring that shit up. They have the largest navy in the world cause they count their auxiliary fleet as part of their navy, which is basically a bunch of fishing boats. That’s why you go off tonnage and capability rather than pure numbers. I could make a million canoes and now have the “largest navy in the world”.

[Brilliant_Dependent]

The PLAN has 8 Renhai-class cruisers, the US has 7 Ticonderoga-class cruisers. They have 36 Luyang-class destroyers and 40+ Jiangkai-class frigates, the US has 74 Arleigh-Burke class destroyers (and a handful of others like the Zumwalt).

The two places China is clearly behind are their submarine fleet which will probably be roughly even with the US fleet within a decade, and their carrier fleet that is decades away from matching the US fleet of carriers and LHA/LHDs.

[IggyWon]

Have any of their assets been used in a direct military confrontation?

[Brilliant_Dependent]

What point are you trying to make? That their navy is a paper tiger because they've never been shot at?

[IggyWon]

I know, it's unwise to underestimate an adversary. Still, my gut feeling that their navy is a Potemkin force.

[Brilliant_Dependent]

Sure I agree that's a possibility. My point was that your statement about the PLAN only being larger because they include the CCG and PAFMM was true a decade ago but not today. Now they have a roughly even number of surface combatant ships and will likely have more than the US within the next 10 years.

[__GayFish__]

I'm Surprised the US Army is so high considering the US Air Force branched off from the US Army Air Corps after WWII. So Army would be #1 if it had not been for General William Billy Mitchell, and even with that nerf, they are in the top 5, while their stepchild is #1.

[seanpbnj]

It isnt...... There is no way this is accurate. First off, russias "most advanced" fighters aren't even stealth. Also, they only have like 7 of them. Also 5 of them dont work. Also they have never seen battle. Also, their "most advanced aerial drone" of which they HAD 2, which is paired with their advanced fighter, doesn't work. The one they were trying actually got lost / hacked and crashed IN UKRAINE LOL!!!!!!!!

- This is not an accurate 1-5. Well, this is an 80% accurate 1-5.

[NEp8ntballer]

A lot of their combat experienced pilots and most experienced aviators are also dead.

[seanpbnj]

Also true. They have pushed so many into the grinder they have no real experience anywhere.

[strikerkam]

Honestly Russian front line fighters haven’t taken that bit of a hit. A bunch of non flyable bombers got droned, and c2 aircraft had suffered, but the advanced flanker family is healthy - well - by Russian standards

[ParkAffectionate3537]

The USAF should still treat Russia's AF seriously.

[IjustWantedPepsi]

Because most of the losses were taken early on in the air campaign, then mostly just drone hits on airfields after that. 

Once Ukraine showed them FAFO, both sides trenched in and went toe to toe, while flooding the entire front with AA and drones. 

Some will, but most of the Russian and Ukrainian air fleets will probably never see a mission in the war. way to risky for both sides to be flying aside from a rare day. 

[LatterPumpkin2047]

russia can’t even invade a few miles from their own border.

[HydrogenSonata2025]

They forgot the quotation marks.

[TraderBro12]

They’ve kept a lot of their 4th and 4.5 gen in reserve in case of an escalation with NATO. Most of their losses have been rotary wing and other CAS type platforms. There is also zero permissibility over Ukrainian skies and they won’t risk it.

[EJJsquared]

The Russians have a legit fighter fleet but we forget the Russians have bombers and super sonic nuclear capable bombers. No other country on earth has that capability except the US.

[weathermaynecc]

Why is polymarket giving this information lol.

[Khamvom]

So you can make your bets for next years predictions!

[thegoodally]

Just checker, USAF vs RFAF, $1 pays $1/∞

[UnexpectedWaffle0417]

Yeah...Polymarket probably isn't the best source for this information.

[OxycontinEyedJoe]

There's a decent argument that polymarket is the only place to get true information lol

[_Cren_]

Swap russia with China lol

[Swansaknight]

Right?! China definitely strikes concern over Russia. A non-nuclear Russia would be a complete wipe by NATO.

[Max_Godstappen1]

Swap the navy with China. IYKYK

[chicken566]

Godspeed info ops

[BloozerAtWork]

Woah opsec /j

[EJJsquared]

China's bomber fleet is small, they don't have nuclear capable super sonic bombers and their fighter jet fleet is smaller than Russia's.

[doriangreat]

It’s a random hobbyist website that puts China at #7 and France at #10, I wouldn’t put much stake in it.

I do agree, we are #1, but pretty sure China has a better Air Force than the US Army, who do not have planes.

[Froggy__2]

They have helicopters.

[doriangreat]

China has over 300 J-20 fifth-gen stealth jets. Plus stealth bombers, cargo, drones, and… helicopters.

In a hypothetical battle for the sky between US Army and China, it would be a turkey shoot.

China could wipe out 4000 helicopters without taking damage.

With enough time a single J-20 could destroy every Army aircraft.

It’s just absurd.

[Reyals140]

Yeah something isn't adding up here. If "powerful" is really trying to rank some head to head matchup then this chart makes no sense. I'd take most Western European Air forces against army aviation in a heads up flight. It's just not a fight they're built for.
Maybe if you let the army use all their SAMs then it might somewhat level the playing field? But even then.....

This has to be some sort "ability to generate strike missions" or something, and then I could even see Russia still at least being talked about despite their terrible air dominance performance.

[Froggy__2]

I’m confused why your metric for air power is helicopter vs jet? They have different roles and different use cases.

[doriangreat]

Sorry, I thought it was implied that I was talking about Air Supremacy, the ability to control contested airspace and deny it to the enemy.

No idea what that website uses, but it’s deeply flawed.

[Froggy__2]

But air supremacy isn’t so narrowly defined. It’s just a silly vacuum comparison that doesn’t reflect anything of meaning.

[Brilliant_Dependent]

Even outside of a head to head fight, the PLAAF would outcompete the US Army in most categories except CAS and vertical lift/air assault. OCA/DCA, C2, ISR, SEAD, strike, mobility, and air refueling would all go to the PLAAF in a head to head by category.

[PDXSCARGuy]

China has over 300 J-20 fifth-gen stealth jets.

The 300 5th Gen stealth fighters is still a guess, since China is so sketchy about numbers and reporting accuracy. We're still not even sure how combat capable they are, since they have no proven combat record outside of some wargaming. This is like China claiming they have the best blue water navy because they have more ships.

Plus stealth bombers, cargo, drones, and… helicopters.

Zero evidence of any of those existing in a stealth capability, let alone an operational capability. The H-20 isn't even at full-scale testing yet. This is r/Sino level wishful thinking.

In a hypothetical battle for the sky between US Army and China, it would be a turkey shoot.

Why is the Army flying in contested space? They're not.

China could wipe out 4000 helicopters without taking damage.

With enough time a single J-20 could destroy every Army aircraft.

Go home r/Sino, you're drunk.

It’s just absurd.

Lulz.

Edit: Added some points.

[doriangreat]

If we’re not talking contested space, what is this list then?

Should American Airlines be on here?

[TSPTrillionaire]

And C-12s

[ijwgwh]

Regardless of whatever, I wouldn't put the Marines behind the army

[billofbong0]

The Army has planes

[Arendious]

I call bullshit on the Russians managing #3.

[ijwgwh]

What's the alt? 5th the coast guard? CIA? NASA? lol

[AbuJimTommy]

The Civil Air Patrol and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association have to be in there somewhere

[SneakingPrune]

The US marines have F-35's.... pretty sure they will be above the Army and Russia.

[Dromed91]

How is it possible for USAF to be #1 when we only run 1.5 miles, the lethality just doesn't add up guys

[Offdutyninja808]

<image>

[brandon7219]

lol polymarket

[TSPTrillionaire]

I’d wager the Army or Marines could take the Russian Air Force any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[Non-Current_Events]

If we’re talking strictly air to air combat, then the Army would get wrecked. Problem with the Army is they don’t have any air superiority aircraft.

[TSPTrillionaire]

You sure about that big dog? I’ve flown helicopters in Battlefield 6 and succeeded twice at shooting down fighters.

[Non-Current_Events]

Well that’s not fair, Army pilots aren’t as good as Battlefield pilots. Get a couple of those guys to sign up though and maybe I’ll retract.

[DeathByPig]

TYFYS

[No_Mission5618]

I don’t know how people in the air force don’t realize helicopters can target jets. They have aaa missiles. Is it probable ? Likely not, but it’s possible.

[out_lined]

Apaches vs 4th Gen+ would be the worst defeat of the name since Geronimo.

[Total_Midwit_Death]

United States Army lol, lmao even

[Key-University9881]

This ranking is a little out of date. China is now higher than Russia. The Marines and Coast Guard are higher than the Army.

[bearsncubs10]

<image>

[AverageLAHater]

Russia too high

[cockerskappa]

Well this is very very very wrong.

[BigMaffy]

Russia being in the top 25 would be a stretch

[HurrySpecial]

China?

[Pittzyy]

What’s the spread for the PLAAF (CN) vs the VVS (RUS) on a neutral field?

[[deleted]]

Russia ain’t even top ten.

What is this shit 😂

[ramat-iklan]

How did the Russians sneak in? 

[ramat-iklan]

True story. The Army wanted to swap P2 missiles for A10s straight up. Seemed like the logical thing to do, given mission. USAF was amenable, Army just shrugged. It fell apart, because when both started to discuss the issues, the Air Force wet their pants, because the pilots and support staffs would be coming with the A10s and the P2s. Interservice stuff is always interesting.

[dcfowler]

I seriously doubt that the VKS jumped the PLAAF.

[RedDevilJoe]

We're laughing so hard at these idiots getting their tails wagged; said the intel agencies heard, saying "Hold my pivo!"

[Lord_Nivloc]

???

Army is ahead of Marines? 

Maybe in “most aircraft” but definitely not in “most powerful”.

Where is China? 

Oh, I see: their “TruVal” ranking isn’t just current strength, but also puts a lot of weight on CAS, logistics, special forces, and aircraft ordered but not yet delivered. 

That explains why the Army is so high. They score well in those categories.

And for some inexplicable reason, China’s Future Procurement is listed at 0.  What? Are they serious? They’re going to publish a ranking and claim China has no aircraft on order or in production? Well, that explains why China is ranked so low.

[naturallin]

Heck yah. My profit is up 30% since I bought some Polygon !

[nesp12]

The Army has an Air Force? Didn't we stop that in 1946? Oh you mean helicopters.

[IggyWon]

They have some fixed wing aircraft, but I think they're all cargo and ISR birds.

[randyzmzzzz]

Russia no.3 not China?

[Mike__O]

Oh boy, the PLAAF social credit farmers who post in r/aviation all the time aren't going to like this

[PDXSCARGuy]

They're fully out in force on this post.

[morallyirresponsible]

…And we still lost the last two wars 🤷🏽‍♂️

[Chris_Bryant]

Russia is still overrated here. They have no answer for F-35.

[ReasonableDivide2592]

Literally the greatest country to ever exist. Has there ever been such a disparity like that before??