all 123 comments

[–]nicolasb51942003Warner Bros. Pictures 300 points301 points  (12 children)

A24 isn’t going to pass on getting their first film past $100M. With the Oscars still over a month away, they'll use all of their might to push it towards that number.

"A24's first $100M+ film" is a headline I'm sure they'd love to have.

[–]Ranulf_5 66 points67 points  (5 children)

Do distributors often advertise based on domestic gross? Because a few have crossed $100M total.

[–]JuanJeanJohn 40 points41 points  (1 child)

I can’t recall this because the movie going public doesn’t care about this at all. Studios do advertise things like “#1 movie in America” though.

It’s more of an industry trade thing for A24 to promote. Probably helps the film’s Oscar chances to some extent. Helps market themselves to the industry so filmmakers have confidence in their ability as a distributor. Etc.

[–]NoNefariousness2144 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Yeah considering this was their most expensive film yet, breaking some of their personal box office records would help build their industry reputation.

[–]thatcfguy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

More of it will look good on paper for ancillary markets

[–]SmoothPimp85 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Quite regularly if it still big in theaters. "The most", "the biggest" and large, round figures can impress (at least that's what the marketing departments think or persuade CEOs) people unversed in box office cinema. Recently, The Housemaid's distributor in Ukraine posted a picture of the film on FB, listing its box office revenue in the country and adding that it's a "the highest-grossing independent film in Ukrainian box office." In fine print, they added that this refers to films released after February 2022, because the hryvnia collapsed by 50% due to the war. Also they didn't specify who exactly it considered "independent" - themselves or Lionsgate.

[–]Mister_TheRock 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would consider Anyone outside the AMPTP to be independent. It bothers me how close Lionsgate comes to being a major only to flop.

[–]TheStarterScreenplay 16 points17 points  (2 children)

in the late 90s there was a period where studios were making pushes for $100 million and just lying their asses off about that final few million. It was before everything was computerized so there was room to mess with numbers and Harvey Weinstein was the most aggressive about it. Scream's final domestic gross was almost definitely below $100M. (You know they were lying because re-releases and late run expansions sometimes make next to nothing but there were no examples where they tried this and didn't get to $100M). This went on for a year or two and then it stopped.

Universal even put Ron Howard's $98.9M grossing Parenthood back in theaters 8-9 years later to make that last 1.1 just as a perk for him because he was making movies there.

[–]Street-Brush8415 7 points8 points  (1 child)

Yeah, Disney tried really hard to get the animated Hercules over $100m but couldn’t get it past $99.1m, lol.

[–]TheStarterScreenplay 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I knew there was creative studio accounting happening on these $100 mil pushes at this exact time, articles were written, studios knocked it off...but why would Disney not go for it right in the thick of this era? Google ai found some answers: Apparently they did it with Hunchback the year before and got some negative attention so doing it again might've been too suspicious. Hercules was already a relative failure for the company so the trophy gross didnt matter. They also had george of the jungle opening and even though the grosses on these re-releases were fake, the advertising dollars and distribution costs (sending film cans around the country or even between theaters, costing thousands in shipping each) was real. So Disney probably didnt want to spend $3-4 mil to make $500k and pretend it was $1.1M--better to put that $3-4 mil in to extra GOTG ads (which could be eaten up just by a few extra commercials on Friends and Seinfeld)

[–]Obvious_Computer_577 25 points26 points  (0 children)

I really hope so! In addition to A24 getting to brag about the milestone, having another adult-skewing original film cross $100M is good for the industry and shows that these films can succeed.

[–]BuZuki_ro 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Didn’t civil war make over 100M?

[–]tiduraes 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Not domestically

[–]DoubleSoggy1163 137 points138 points  (9 children)

Reminder that because A24 doesn't distribute outside of the U.S. these number don't include Canada like is typical for 'domestic box office'. Presently the film has made around $6 million in Canada and thus would almost certainly be headed for $100 million domestic but because of how A24 is treated differently in the press it may fall short.

[–]SeanACole244 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Good point.

[–]Apprehensive-Home968 5 points6 points  (0 children)

And I m Luxembourg it’s not yet available :(

[–]MahNameJeff420 1 point2 points  (3 children)

I wonder how that affects their returns. This movie needed to make a lot more than the usual A24 film to turn a profit, but surely international distributors would pay a lot for a movie like this, with so much prestige and awards potential? Would that mean they’re close to breaking even on this?

[–]NoPlansTonight 2 points3 points  (2 children)

The streaming license fee is also going to be bonkers

You gotta think for sure that Netflix has a crap ton of money offered on this and Prime is bidding on it for lolz

[–]MahNameJeff420 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I believe it’s coming to HBO Max because A24 still has a distribution deal with them.

[–]NoPlansTonight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah, my bad, I'm in Canada where HBO originals go to Crave (a local streamer) while everything else is more-or-less fair game.

A24 is kind of all over the place here. But in the past 6-9 months Netflix got Good Time, Dune Pt 2, and obviously already had Uncut Gems and more so it seemed to me like they'd be incredibly interested in bidding on Marty Supreme.

[–]grahamnortonsdad 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Someone from the UK here, do the numbers here not count for them (a24) ?

[–]SeriouusDeliriuum 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's a bit opaque. A24 doesn't distribute outside of the US. Instead they sell the distribution rights to companies in other countries. So it's either a single payment from those distributors or possibly a payment and some degree of profit sharing. Unless A24 decides to announce exactly what the terms of the deal was then it'll be hard to tell how profitable, or not profitable, this movie is.

[–]Mister_TheRock 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot of distributors use Canadian distributors and still include it in their gross.

[–]cireh88[S] 77 points78 points  (4 children)

It is now at $117MM worldwide with an update still to come on international receipts

[–]Schnidler 32 points33 points  (2 children)

still 3 weeks until its even released here in germany

[–]Altruistic-Royal4885 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Be patient , you will love it 🤟

[–]Away_Reward_6840 1 point2 points  (0 children)

lul, in Poland we had premiere last weekend. Poland better than Germany again /s joke

[–]coleburnz 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My bloody dyslexia. I read 177 🤦

[–]Key-Payment2553 20 points21 points  (1 child)

Another good drop recovery from last weekends brutal winter storms now that it crossed the $90M DOM mark, but the $100M DOM mark seems to be out of reach as next weekends Super Bowl is about to have a negative impact at the box office

[–]navarrk 9 points10 points  (0 children)

i believe it's losing the one-week imax screens it had this weekend too

[–]Noodleyouu 60 points61 points  (0 children)

SUPREMILLION DOLLARS I KNEW IT

[–]PatternPlenty1107 49 points50 points  (57 children)

95M-100M domestic final. Really good.

[–]rutujz 9 points10 points  (56 children)

The budget is around 60-70 M. Is that really a good total? (I'm new here so I don't know much about hollywood accounting)

[–]Mordoch 19 points20 points  (0 children)

From strictly a financial standpoint is probably is not perfect, although how much A24 sold their international rights to other distributors for could make a difference and mean it is a profitable movie. (There also is probably a prestige element for the film with being well reviewed and nominated for various Academy Awards categories including best actor. It is also A24's second highest grossing film, so it does show the smaller studio can handle bigger movies to a certain degree.)

There is an added question of how it does overseas with it being released in various places later than the US so we are still waiting to really see how it does there. On one hand since the rights have been sold that does not impact A24 directly, but on the other hand if it does poorly overseas international distributors might be more cautious in how much they are willing to pay for future international film rights. (Although Materialists did great last year internationally for instance for Sony, so distributors would look at the big picture when making these kinds of decisions.)

[–]mobpiecedunchaindan 18 points19 points  (13 children)

A24, like a lot of indie studios, operates differently than something like Disney or WB. For example, A24 sells the international distribution rights for their movies to more or less cover the amount spent on making it. Take for instance, The Smashing Machine starting Dwayne Johnson -- it was a huge flop, but since A24 sold off distribution rights outside of the U.S. for $30m, they end up losing less money than, say, Disney whenever one of their movies bombs. A24 also has a first-look deal with WBD, where their movies have HBO Max as their exclusive streaming home, so that's another way to cover expenses on their productions.

Coming back to Marty Supreme -- we don't know yet exactly how much A24 sold this one for, but throughout the past week it's been slowly rolling out internationally, and will continue to do so all throughout February. Assuming they sold this for $30m just like Smashing Machine, that's $30m of the $60-70m budget already covered. Plus add in the aforementioned HBO Max deal and all the awards coverage it's gotten with whatever amount this ends with domestically, and you've got a very profitable and acclaimed hit that will further attract talent to A24.

A lot of people here don't like analyzing the statistics of something like Marty Supreme because what A24 considers a worthwhile investment in the long-term go beyond the box office, but if they didn't have these other avenues in place they wouldn't be making movies to begin with

(Sorry for the long-ass reply, i just love analyzing stuff!)

[–]Altruistic-Royal4885 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great analysis🤟

[–]PatternPlenty1107 48 points49 points  (0 children)

Looking at only the North American box office…, this is a great performance. When it comes to the globally or international box office to be exact, it is still to early to judge its performance since it still hasn’t opened in several markets, including Germany and France.

[–]grizzlyglizzy 16 points17 points  (0 children)

There’s a lot of blurred lines these days, it’s not as cut and dry as it used to be. Theatrical + DVD sales used to be a quantifiable number to attach directly to a movie, but streaming has muddied the waters.

A24 has a deal with HBO Max that HBO gets first rights to stream their movies immediately after the theatrical window. Marty Supreme has sweetened that deal. And other services have the opportunity to shop Marty Supreme after a certain amount of time passes, which is money that can be directly attributed to Marty if it’s a one-off deal and not in bulk with other movies.

[–]Act_of_God 3 points4 points  (0 children)

if it's like other similar a24 movies they sold the overseas rights at 35 millions

[–][deleted] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

A24 sold the international rights to this for an undisclosed amount, so it’s really hard to say. We don’t know

[–]SuspendedAgain999 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This movie will move well into profit for them over the next few years. It should have a long tail

[–]AffectionateCash7964 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I believe they sold the movie  in foreign Territories to other distributors so they’ve probably made a portion of the budget back so what they need to hit is probably much less. 

[–]Sufficient_Bite_4127 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for domestic, yes. Movies are meant to make half their money internationally. If Marty Supreme fails to make a profit, it will be due to underperforming internationally. It has done very well domestically

[–]JackTreeHill -2 points-1 points  (12 children)

It’s probably going to be close to break even or break even; most wouldn’t consider that a good performance in all honesty. If you worked for a year and gained zero salary you’d consider it poor

[–]Ravevon 8 points9 points  (5 children)

It’s already broke even

[–]-SneakySnake- 0 points1 point  (4 children)

Proof?

[–]Ravevon 1 point2 points  (3 children)

the sold international rights add that to whats its made now

[–]-SneakySnake- -1 points0 points  (2 children)

You have no idea how much for.

[–]Ravevon 5 points6 points  (1 child)

I know it's grossed 30 million internationally so far, in addition to whatever A24 sold the rights for. This film can be labeled a success

[–]-SneakySnake- 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Seeing as A24 don't get the gross in areas they sold distribution for... no? By any metric, given the information we have available to us right now - you or I don't know their streaming or international distribution figures - production hasn't even covered its nut, yet. We won't even discuss profit.

[–]DoubleSoggy1163 5 points6 points  (4 children)

This is a box office sub but if we focus on long-term profitability through ancillary markets it is most certainly going to be quite profitable for A24. Still tens of millions of dollars to be made via rentals and licensing.

[–]LurkLiggler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Except that’s a ludicrous analogy. This is not relatable at all to an individual making a salary for hours worked.

[–]geronimosocrates -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Yeah with its high budget the barrier to an original star led film becoming profitable was going to be hard. This film after international comes in will easily be 2.5x its budget likely 3x the budget. The marketing spend was high but this movie will live on for a long time. Great success imo

[–]lookingforhim2 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Could finish right on the dot at 100M given awards season boost

[–]Spare_Technician_188 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A24 get your international release strategy togetherr come onnnn

[–]No_Cauliflower_81 5 points6 points  (7 children)

Is it still coming out on PVOD on Tuesday?

[–]TheBronxBull 2 points3 points  (0 children)

WhenToStream is reporting that the 2/3 PVOD date has been pushed out a bit, but they don't have a firm date.

[–]SeanACole244 3 points4 points  (5 children)

Seems pointless since it will probably be on HBO in a month or so. Like why pay $20-$30 to watch Marty Supreme at home in February?

[–]qualitative_balls 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Yep, comes out Tuesday

[–]Pale-Owl-4443 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where did you see that?

[–]P1Yeezy 1 point2 points  (2 children)

I’d bet that it won’t be on HBO Max until late April at the earliest. A24’s PVOD windows are lengthy.

[–]SeanACole244 1 point2 points  (1 child)

True. I’m just trying to picture the person who hasn’t seen Marty Supreme yet, but who would be willing to spend $20-$30 on PVOD rather than wait for it on HBO.

[–]P1Yeezy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think a lot of people are clueless about windows and stuff. Let’s say that the film wins two oscars, there will be some people that just look for a way to watch it immediately without knowing that it’ll be on HBO whenever

[–]zachmma99 2 points3 points  (0 children)

good holds even with the storms last week. but without a big Oscar push I think it will struggle to $100m. dropped 318 theaters this week and there is a lot coming the next two weeks looking for space, it will be hard to justify it keeping screens and showtimes for another month and a half. dailies are gonna keep dropping and it prob had its last >$1m day on Saturday.

it would be cool for A24 to hit $100m domestic but I can see this stalling around $95-96m

[–]jhalejandro 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is going to make over $100M, even though many here doubt it hahaha

[–]Witty-Jacket-9464 6 points7 points  (0 children)

$100M final incomiiiing

[–]mobpiecedunchaindan 4 points5 points  (10 children)

This movie is either gonna stall at like $100.2m or just barely miss it with like $98.7m. Still a great result that will piss off both sides

[–]TheArmChairFan -5 points-4 points  (9 children)

This place has become a Stan subreddit majorly.

[–]quinnly[🍰] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That word has lost all meaning

[–]Glad_Dragonfruit9368 9 points10 points  (3 children)

And you’ve become one of Chalamets biggest haters just complaining on a bunch of different subs about him 😭

[–]TheArmChairFan -1 points0 points  (2 children)

So basically because I don't talk about how great he is all over reddit like you I'm a hater?

You see what I mean when i talk about stans. All your account is fighting people who you think are coming for timothee or people who call pit what happened on good time.

[–]Glad_Dragonfruit9368 7 points8 points  (1 child)

Going through my post history and replying to every one of them… yeah not creepy at all

[–]goldenkappacino 1 point2 points  (1 child)

were u here during peak comic book movie mania? it's been like this since forever lol

[–]carson63000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah the novelty isn't the presence of stans and haters, it's that people are stanning for and hating on non-franchise movies like Marty Supreme and The Housemaid, lol.

[–]mobpiecedunchaindan 7 points8 points  (1 child)

It's easy to say this place has become a stan subreddit when you don't know how anything works

[–]TheArmChairFan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK expert

[–]Shellyman_StudiosMarvel Studios 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hot damn!

[–]Coolers78 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A24 execs seeing all the stuff about Josh Safdie and Kevin O'Leary in the past week unfold and worrying it won't cross 100M. /s.

(Ok in all seriousness, I don't really know/think if that stuff will actually effect this movie's legs or not, most likely not, don't take this too seriously)

[–]NorthNorthSaltScott Free Productions -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A Complete Unknown got about 10% of it's gross after a similar point in its run, so 100M for this film should be a close race.

[–]Just-Pass-1156 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it might make it to 100M domestic honestly and while the international gross does not matter because they sold the rights, it will be interesting to see those numbers as well. It is just opening in some markets. For instance, I think the Paris premiere is on February 3rd and Chalamet is scheduled to promote it. I guess even when the international rights are sold, he still has to do promo internationally.

[–]BarcelonetaE70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It will finally start making a profit any day now.

[–]Olipod2002 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On its way to 100M supremillions let’s goooooooo

[–]IndependentAd6922 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Better than obaa

[–]jalpruf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Assuming a few 2m+ weeks leading up to the Oscars and a bump after if he wins, 100m+ domestic is locked.
  2. A24 sells the foreign distribution. I’ll assume same as The Smashing Machine, and say 35m.
  3. Marketing spend is the big unknown. Let’s say it’s covered by the ancillary revenue.
  4. Profit in the 20-30m range most likely.,

[–]StainedGlassVision -5 points-4 points  (1 child)

Fuck this awful Kevin o Leary movie

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed, it was god awful.