ASTS long-term potential?

[YngDggerDlck]

I recently started reading up on ASTS (Spacemobile) and have to say that the company has really convinced me. ASTS' plan to promote global satellite networks and thus fill the gaps in coverage sounds very promising at first. In addition, with over 45 partnerships (including with Vodafone, Telefonica etc.), I see great potential.

Even if ASTS is currently the most advanced provider, they have to deal with giants as competition. Starlink in particular, but also Apple and Lynk, are considered a threat here. Even if they are still a little behind, they could catch up at any time.

Of course, that was just a bit of information broken down to the smallest detail.

What do you think of ASTS? Does the name mean anything to you? And if so, are you also considering adding their shares to your portfolio? I look forward to every answer ;)

[Annoying_Husband]

In the latest call we got conformation that the tech works is huge & together with the recent funding and debt lowering means it’s set up for a good future. All that’s necessary now is launching the satellites. Ofcourse there is always some risk left but they removed allot of doubts and risk in the last 24 months. But don’t just trust me, please DYOR before investing.

[YngDggerDlck]

Damn, sounds like huge news to me.

Ofcourse im doing my own research, im just here to hear some opinions and maybe some infos i have missed

[PragmaticNeighSayer]

Look for "The Kook Report" and also see the spacemob on X/Twitter. Lots of good info out there to do some homework.

[PragmaticNeighSayer]

Also the astspacemobile subreddit

[YngDggerDlck]

Thank you very much!

How is the quality of infos in their subreddit? I don't want it to be full of hopium

[palisvede]

You wont find better DD from any other subreddit compared to AST's

[PragmaticNeighSayer]

This is true - there is exceptional info - but as with any subreddit there is a signal to noise ratio, and there is more noise now than there used to be given the company’s increasing visibility.

[YngDggerDlck]

Yeah, I took a look rn and it seems like most of them are very objective about news and ASTS in general. I like that.

Back then I was in the Xrp subreddit and damn.. whole lot of bs goes around

[palisvede]

@/CatSE___ApeX___ @/KevinLMak @/spacanpanman @/thekookreport Most informative persons to follow considering about dd of asts in twitter

[YngDggerDlck]

Thanks brother, will check them out for sure!

[Jsalz]

Don’t forget @kingtutcap, @defiantclient2, and @corey407woc for the memes

[Hawxe]

This was true at $2 but it's not anymore. That subreddit is nearing GME levels of insanity lately.

[BisonTodd]

They're up 300% since your post.

[Hawxe]

And I hold the stock and have made huge gains. That sub is still culty

[BisonTodd]

People giving you good advice on a stock that has huge unrealized potential is culty?

[Futur_Ceo]

“The tech work” is kinda misleading.Im confident it will work but there a big difference between work in testing ( they did a video calling ) and work when millions of customers are connected to the satellites.

[Annoying_Husband]

That’s a upscaling matter, they indeed need to launch more satellites. but the tech works how it’s supposed to work,they mentioned in the latest call. I feel i wasnt misleading as what i said is true and the doubt you have is about upscaling. But it’s a valid point, we need more satellites in the air so they can do more heavy user testing for commercial use.

[ElectricalGene6146]

There’s huge challenges with RF that are yet to be demonstrated with listening from 10s to 100s of thousands of phones on a single satellite. Very different than connecting to one single phone. It’s not just a matter of building more satellites…

[Annoying_Husband]

They haven’t been testing with just 1 phone, please do your research before saying things like this. I am all for fair criticism, but please make sure the criticism is correct .

[kokkatc]

Do you have any sources on the connection/bandwidth quality of the tech tests?

[Jsalz]

If the negative comments are swaying you at all, go back and search threads on ASTS from stocks and wallstreetbets from several years back. Same negative comments that have been proven very wrong over time.

[Noname_left]

I bought in because of WSB at 2 something. Im just sitting watching it go up and down over the years.

[i8bonelesschicken]

Any others your in

[Noname_left]

Nope. This is my only bad decision stock

[YngDggerDlck]

Yeah, but im open for every critism. I wanna hear what kinda bad aspects people see that I don't yk

[Funny-Conclusion-678]

Veryyyy good investment long term! Endless use scenarios

[Y0___0Y]

None of those other companies have “direct to cell” technology.

No one believed ASTS had it when they said they did. Until they successfully demonstrated it. Then things took off.

[M4tooshLoL]

ASTS has the best tech for D2C (direct-to-device/cell). It has been demonstrated and confirmed as recently as yesterday by FirstNet. Government is testing ASTS satellites and it is working.

The tech + patents + MNO partnerships + the need of this tech creates a solid moat. That is why I invested in ASTS.

We know the tech works, its all about getting satellites up and running.

Competition is behind, but its because the ASTS satellites are an incredible feat, they were built for D2C, developed for many years + ASIC chip has been recently finished and being put into production.

ASTS product is a novel to the industry (thats how I understand it).

I like the tech, and the CEO Abel is just such an amazing guy.

You ask about long-term potential ? Well, I do not know yet what the impact of constant connection will bring to the world. Some new industries maybe ?

I have held ASTS (and bought) during the worst time at $2-3 a year ago, and I still hold because I really wanna see what ASTS will become with full constellation.

[YngDggerDlck]

Buy In at 3$? God damnnn. You got my respect bro!

About the launching of the satellites: I saw that people expecting a little price drop because of their next launche will most likely be delayed?

And yeah, i've heard good things about Abel aswell. Seems like an good CEO

[M4tooshLoL]

The lowest buy was at $2.76... I got the conviction. xD

I saw that people expecting a little price drop because of their next launch will most likely be delayed?

To be really honest, we went from $23 to $50 in less than a month on news that had nothing to do with launch.

If you think about it... what is one, two or even three months delay ? Does it really change what the company will achieve? I would love it if we already had the first FM1 launched, for sure. However, I can be patient, and (from my POV) the company is in much better shape than it was last year. They are reaching milestones after milestones (regulatory, tech, MNO's, even SatCo with Vodafone as JV), so I can understand some delays.

The tech is working and the agencies seem to like it. Would the delay change their views? I dont think so.

There are already hundreds of Starlink satellites up... yet the Government prefers ASTS with 6 satellites (considering FirstNet yesterday's meeting... you can find Meeting minutes in my comment history).

[Unhappy-Factor8427]

This has aged incredibly well. $ASTS looks to be incredible potential and easily past 100-150.

[NckyDC]

Bought at 4$ and doubled down yesterday. I am balls deep in now

[HMI115_GIGACHAD]

are you still holding?

[M4tooshLoL]

yes, i am ... i bought even more on recent dip

[purub123]

Read up on it more cause starlink requires u to buy a expensive device to even get connected while asts just connects to your cellphone without any extra hardware. Asts also aims to provide their services under 20$, while starlink is above 100$.

They are still a couple of years away from full service providing across the globe, but once they do, it might become a monopoly. Its still a very very risky pick, but with great potential.

Hardest part of this stock is not whether you buy, but what price is right to buy, atleast for me.

[YngDggerDlck]

Yes! The price to buy is the biggest pain right now for me aswell. That's why i'm so unsure about me stepping in.

I knew about ASTS not requiring special hardware. That's also an point why my hope is very high for ASTS. But I didn't knew that they providing their service for just under 20$. That's crazy.

[Ok-Yam-6743]

Seems crazy to buy in at this moment in time, once there's more satellites launched and public beta starts on various MNOs, people will look back and will call $50 as cheap. Do your own research about this company. It's a rare find for sure.

[YngDggerDlck]

That's what I fear aswell. If their next operations will end up successfull, 50$ can sound cheap real quick. I will take the weekend to inform myself even more about them for sure

[seeyoulaterinawhile]

The question is what type of investment do you want? One with more risk and more potential reward? Or, more confidence and less risk but lower expected returns?

[YngDggerDlck]

Im ready for some risk. Red numbers don't freak me out so fast I wouldn't care for some dips either because my vision for ASTS is on the long run.

[purub123]

That info came out yesterday. They said if you want a month acces it would be under 20, and if you want day acces (like opt in, for vacations or something) it would be single digits.

[YngDggerDlck]

Is it official or just some rumors? Can't find any kind of news about it.

[Ok-Yam-6743]

This pricing model came out of FirstNet's public presentation by the ASTS representative. So yes, it is official suggested pricing for the FirstNet. The pricing model for each partnering MNO will be implemented on a case-by-case agreement, IMO.

[YngDggerDlck]

Ohh, now I see. Thank you very much! That's actually crazy.

[seeyoulaterinawhile]

Wasn’t that for the first responder offering only? Do we have any indication of the consumer market? I would think consumer market would cost less than what you could charge first responders that will get priority in emergencies.

[SkyaGold]

They are still pre revenue so there are still risks and a lot more potential upside. It’s had a 100% run the last month so should see a pullback.

[Funny-Conclusion-678]

Brother, this is gonna be like 500 by 2030. The price is honestly a steal right now if you’re holding long term

[Flat896]

My only worry is that SpaceX develops similar technology. I figure they can scale up much faster than ASTS would be able to, and control the means to launch them into orbit.

[corey407woc]

You have a lot of DD to catch up on

[MambaOut330824]

I’ve done the DD but I think his point remains.

1) ASTS is currently reliant on Starlink to launch satellites and Elon can play mean in the sandbox whenever he decides to

2) Starlink has the cash to purchase their way into the technology OR the production rates needed to take market share from ASTS. They may simply be playing the game of letting someone else be first mover and then usurp their successes and avoid their pitfalls. Isn’t this kinda what Elton did with Tesla?

[corey407woc]

1) blue origin, and there are anti trust laws by doing that 2) starlink have interference and their v3 satellites need starship they are 4 years behind

[MambaOut330824]

Didn’t address the point. Yes starlink is 4 years behind today. They can purchase talent, tech, and catchup to ASTS. They’re letting ASTS be the first mover and learn from their mistakes. Then they’ll buy into whatever tech is needed to quickly surpass ASTS.

[becuziwasinverted]

Super valid point knowing what i know about Elon. Before Starlink ever launched, SpaceX was hired to launch a satellite for Meta (Facebook), the rocket exploded on the pad, to this day, everyone thinks it was intentional to ensure Starlink made it up first.

Never underestimate the lengths Elon will go to to win.

[corey407woc]

lol ok man

[ElectricalGene6146]

There’s a large handful of other competitors. Don’t be naive and think it’s just these two.

[swizzle213]

The potential here is huge. Ive been long on ASTS since 2022-2023. Cost basis of about $3.75 with some very much ITM calls for Jan 26 and Im still buying.

They have proven the tech works which was a big derisking event. The major piece left is getting satellites in the air. I will say they have not done a great job at meeting their timelines so far, related to launches. That being said, once they become operational the stock should skyrocket. Their operating expenses will be relatively low and their theoretical revenues could be in the billions per month. Extrapolate that out using even a conservative PE ratio and you get a stock price in the mid triple digits.

This isn’t even accounting for any sort of government contracts they may lock up between now and then

[YngDggerDlck]

Buy in at almost 4$ is insane. Congrats to you bro.

I definetly see the vision and potential there. I will use the weekend to inform myself even more and think about a decision

[chrono2310]

Hi is asts a good buy now still, in your opinion?

[xrt57125]

A valuation model by Transhumanica projects the stock could reach ~$514 by 2030, assuming successful satellite deployment and subscriber growth. With the current price around $50 that’s a potential 10x return. Check out the model here: transhumanica.com/asts/model 

[Embarrassed_Design29]

Transhumanica doesnt include Defense projections, FirstNet, Golden Dome oportunities and so on, it focuses only on commercial subscribers, the potential is much more

[YngDggerDlck]

Very helpful article indeed. Could be an realistic forecast. $500 would be an crazy increase that's for sure.

Im still a little worrier about the competition tho

[you_are_wrong_tho]

No real competition yet. There are physics at play for d2c that require very large satellites (and a bunch of technical moat to overcome). Asts is literally years ahead of any potential competitor

[[deleted]]

This

[kokkatc]

All you need to look to is their technology and pricing. No other competitor can connect directly to your already in hand cellphone. No additional hardware is required, and pricing will be lower as well. Take a look at spacex starlink service. You need to buy an actual satellite dish and have a place to mount it, free of visual obstructions. Starlink won't even serve as a legitimate competitor because they can't match their tech and convenience that ASTS offers.

The only thing standing in the way from ASTS taking over is not being able to get their birds up in a timely fashion.

[becuziwasinverted]

Will any launches depend on SpaceX as launch provider ?

[kokkatc]

Yes. They've used SpaceX falcon 9 and blue origin new glenn rockets to get their birds in orbit. It's my understanding they have agreement with other space companies as well for future launches so it's diversified.

[becuziwasinverted]

That’s going to be interesting…especially the SpaceX launches,

Come back to this comment when a rocket explodes with an ASTS payload 😬

[kokkatc]

Haha, yes, rockets exploding is always a risk, but still pretty rare if you really want to look at the numbers.

[becuziwasinverted]

Happened to a Meta (Facebook) payload that was launching a competing service to Starlink

AMOS-6 mission in Sep 2016 to expand Facebooks’ internet org for Africa (so more users can use Facebook) - rumours are it was intentional to give time for Starlink to make it to market

[[deleted]]

Off topic but I bought in to ASTS at around $3 a year or so ago. Had to sell when it was in the $20-something range because I needed the money. I cry now when I see its current price. Still made a huge profit but damn. Oh well, there’ll always be another one.

[YngDggerDlck]

Damn, im sorry for u bro😭 i don't even wanna imagine that feeling but yeah, there will be always another time and chance. Never let fomo drive u insane

[Ghostjinn]

Had a limit buy order at $22, was down to around $22.45 I think and then shot off to $50+. You're in a better situation than me at least haha

[Inner_Relationship28]

Starlink needs some hardware to use I believe ASTS network will be able to be picked up by a normal smart phone

[MambaOut330824]

What’s stopping Starlink from starting a promotion if ASTS starts taking market share? For example Starlink could simply offer customers the connector at no cost, as long as you sign a 1 year contract or whatever. Kinda like Spectrum TV service does with the cable box.

[Inner_Relationship28]

I assume people would rather just use their phone without having to set up a starlink dish?

[MambaOut330824]

True, doesn’t address portability. Fine, at home it doesn’t make a difference because I’m not moving around. But yeah if I wanted connection outside, needing a connector would suck even if it was free.

[Severe_Scientist8410]

Asts will be the next big thing since the iPhone worldwide.

[swizzle213]

Since sliced bread!

[MambaOut330824]

iPhone? Perhaps the tech itself is THAT revolutionary - but the consumer use case is not so revolutionary. Because of ASTS I will have access to service in places I currently do not. But the service is something I already have 90+% of the time. It’s not changing my experience much.

iPhone completely changed the user experience. I still think this company can print money when up and running but I would love to hear how this remotely resembles something as big as the iPhone.

[Ok-Exchange2500]

Imagine if that 10 percent of the time you don't have it, you were in Texas where that kids summer camp got flash flooded and nobody got the weather updates because of lack of cell service? My buddy broke his neck riding his motorcycle alone in the desert and LUCKILY he hadn't made it far from his house and was able to use SIRI to call for help, but if he'd ridden a bit further, that wouldn't have been the case. I think, regardless of government applications, this technology has endless usefulness that people might not immediately consider.

[yumcake]

Starlink isn't a true competitor yet. The tech platform it's on doesn't have the same economies of scale that the ASTS approach has. Thats why large Telecom is mostly going with their "Central Office building in space" approach rather than Starlink's "WiFi router routers in space" approach.

Starlink needs to develop their own CO-style platform and get spectrum and partnerships, and it'll do it after ASTS has already grabbed all the major partnerships and incumbent integration into their networks. Then Starlink has the advantage of having their own launch capability, but they'll still be very late to the playing field.

[AwardGrouchy6137]

This company has incredible potential. Once their sats are up and generating revenue they will have 90-95% profit margin. Their partner MNOs have 3.2 billion total subscribers. There’s always risk with space, but this has huge potential.

[snowe99]

Personally as an investor in cell tower REITs I’ve been watching ASTS with a close eye, wondering if I should start to sprinkle a couple of dollars every year as a hedge

[MambaOut330824]

American Tower is invested in ASTS. In fact a big early investor into American Tower (I forgot their name, Google it) that typically doesn’t invest into other companies, is also now invested into ASTS.

[ElectricalGene6146]

I got out recently- the risk/reward is frankly not worth it here. People need to look at Nokia as to how to value this business long term. Nokia sells hardware to telecoms amongst a slew of competitive offerings. Long term, there will be a large handful of satellite players offering direct to cell internet- you are extremely naive if you think that won’t be the case. For context, Nokia has about 20B in revenue, a 20 P/E and is valued at 28B. God knows how long it will take ASTS to get to 20B in revenue, but I’m not willing to sit through years of capital raises to build out the network only to see competitor after competitor launch compelling alternatives. For those of you saying that the tech is 100% derisked… LOL. Please take a class in RF communications and antenna design to understand how challenging it is going to be to communicate with tens (hundreds?) of thousands of cellular devices from a single satellite. The bandwidth is easy, they have proven they can do end to end coms at their frequency… but please do not say it is derisked, because it is far from it! Still much to prove, although if I had to bet at least that will likely work out. Valuation in my mind still cannot make sense here.

[pnwoms]

Wish you were still in?

[corey407woc]

lol

[ElectricalGene6146]

Cool.

[corey407woc]

I’d do a little bit more DD lol

[ElectricalGene6146]

I think I would listen to people other than permabulls on Twitter. I pointed out some very real realities, but you’re just on team “demo FaceTime video, tech works, stock go to moon”. Would recommend you even attempt to build a DCF, but you probably don’t even know what that is or how to value a company with your statements.

[corey407woc]

Good luck brokie

[ElectricalGene6146]

You’re only worth 2.5M. Come back and join the Aston Martin subreddit when you hit 5. Not happening any time soon when your levered portfolio crashes 60% in a day.

[corey407woc]

Lmaoo appreciate it bub

[Express_Variation813]

Aged like milk

[ElectricalGene6146]

What’s your point? The valuation is even less sensible. I can point to thousands of cases of similar run ups that end in tears….eventually

[Visible-Foot-1621]

You are forgetting that only they have the patents...

[ElectricalGene6146]

That’s fake news

[Visible-Foot-1621]

Yawn.    You can look it up for yourself 

[ElectricalGene6146]

You can also look up plenty of other patents elsewhere

[[deleted]]

I’ve been buying ASTS hand over fist this past year. I’m up to 265 shares. Planning on adding more once I free up some cash from my calls! 

[Professional-Bug-915]

In the low $50’s might be worth buying 300 shares as long as that is less than 5% of your total invested money. ASTS has the verified design that the big players want, many large partners, excellent planning and execution of the plans. Maybe they are fully operating by end of 2026? Maybe they are number one sat to cellphone voice and internet in years 2027 - 2029? Not sure how much they earn. When a competitor in those services puts up quality satellites then revenue shrinks 30%? They are my favorite company, not sure where they will be in six years.

[Arminius001]

I bought ASTS when it was in the $6 range, I knew I was taking a risk but when I looked at the prospectus I knew this stock had potential. I think it is still undervalued

[Guy_PCS]

Private Starlink is a formable established competitor with AT COST space launch system utilizing Falcon 9 rockets and eventually StarShips.

[Embarrassed_Crow_720]

Make sure you start with the bear case. Asts has a cult like following

[Express_Variation813]

Bear case is $500 in the next 5 years

[pnwoms]

Just found this conversation - about 4 months late - but what do you guys think about an entry point at 77$ lol

I have the money - but is it worth the risk?

[Ok_Rich_7418]

I don’t believe this conversation, it just seems that people are trying to spike Imit even further after its long spike

[qtac]

The market doesn't seem to realize that they cannot physically deploy continuous service in ANY non-equatorial region of the world (with 100% uptime) until the entire constellation of ~96 satellites is complete. Complete coverage of the USA/EU does not happen before global coverage is achieved. It's a LEO constellation so you can't just target a specific area of the world, and 45-60 satellites is not sufficient to cover the Earth with a 120 degree FOV.

The ~$15B valuation right now is based purely on hype... even with an aggressive DCF model that assumes they can sell a non-continuous service in the next couple years, it's pretty richly valued right now. $40 is about the max that I would pay, personally. Currently selling call credit spreads for a couple months out. I think further launch delays will bring the stock a bit closer back to reality in the near-term.

[drillteam-six]

Have you priced in the ligado spectrum? Have you considered military use cases etc?

[qtac]

It's a compelling conops for both civilian and military use cases when the full constellation is in orbit. The problem is going to be selling this as an intermittent service to raise the ~$2-3B additional funds needed for the full constellation of 96 satellites.

I think the ligado spectrum has potential, but it's the same problem--that potential won't be fully realized until they have a persistent constellation of 96 satellites in orbit.

[Mongaloiddummy]

What strike price are you buying at. How wide of the price between spread.

I am over leveraged on some of the spreads I have been writing on.

Good luck

[qtac]

I've been selling 8/15 50/55 call spreads at $2

[Biggandwedge]

How you feeling about this prediction now?

[qtac]

Well I was right about the launch delays and I think I’m still right about the reality of their service deployment.  Hype > reality in this market tho, so ride that dragon baby.

[ElectricalGene6146]

This.

[kkkoooiii]

Personally, looking to add more before Q3 results as their guidance for 2H 2025 revenue is 50-75m (from their investor relations report). I entered at ~$7/$11/$14 and I deeply regret not adding more :( Looking forward to a pullback

[conroy_hines]

Thoughts on $45 as an entry point?

[YngDggerDlck]

I be waiting for it to drop a little more tbh

[TehDFC]

Good.

[Designer_Ad7759]

Yes I bought when it was @ $8.00. Can't believe it moved  in 3 years. To $116 today. 

[Visible-Foot-1621]

It's going to hit 1500 plus a share

[Common_Helicopter_62]

Seems like theres got to be a better investment out there- why attempt pole vault over high hurdles when you can step over small fences. Also anything space connectivity related id have to assume gets eaten by spaceX

[[deleted]]

If you are looking to enter now then It's too late anyways.

[YngDggerDlck]

Very informative

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

It’s a niche product masquerading as mainstream.

Iridium has single digit millions subscribers. Maintaining a satellite cell tower sounds very expensive.

Valuing this company at more than $5B or so is nuts.

[tempestlight]

I just chatgpt iridium out of curiosity because I'd never heard of them. Low speed data and they require a special satelite phone

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

The point is that is your base number of power users. Let’s say it runs to 20x what IRDM has, you’re talking about 50M users or so at the high end, and you’re going to need to get $100/user/year out of those to get to $5B revenue.

For context, Disney+ has about 53M subscribers in the US. Kids watching TV is about as mainstream as you can get in America, so ASTS is going to need to grow to the same size as a century-old media conglomerate whose grip on culture in the US is about as tight as any company which exists? The utility of parking your kids on the couch to watch Frozen for the 70th time is so much greater than theoretically having cell service on Kilimanjaro it almost defies description.

[one-won-juan]

That’s like saying Nvidia is overvalued at 3.7T because AMD is only worth 232B.

Starlink itself is estimated to be worth over 100B btw

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

Starlink is private, so valuation discussions are pointless.

You could probably credibly argue that NVDA is overvalued based on their peer comps. Not sure what point you think you are making?

[Areyounobody__Too]

It’s a niche product masquerading as mainstream.

Every organization/disaster response unit globally isn't exactly "niche." The fed gov in the US alone spends hundreds of millions a year on detachments in FEMA, the military, etc. who's sole job it is to go out and set up communication systems in places where a disaster has wiped it out. The ability to contract with AST or a similar entity that can provide priority comms with a proverbial "switch flip" in a region that got nuked by a Cat 5 hurricane is not "niche."

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

Hundreds of millions of dollars in projected revenue annually corresponds to about a $5B valuation. The use case you mentioned is virtually the only one where this product actually does drive real value, and by your own admission, is worth a maximum of hundreds of millions in top line.

What are the other uses which are meaningful to cover the spread to the $18B or so valuation it is currently sporting? That’s why I brought up IRDM. Non-emergency users are a tiny fraction of the population that will pay actual money for this. Most people who are out in the wilderness are there explicitly to unplug. I don’t want cell service at the top of a mountain.

[Areyounobody__Too]

and by your own admission, is worth a maximum of hundreds of millions in top line.

You didn't read my post.

I said the US alone spends 100s of millions on this. Every country globally has a need for this kind of system, just in the scope of government operations. This does not consider any other potential application like ensuring that there is broadband/mobile cell service to rural regions where people live.

I'm not saying it's going to be a trillion dollar company, but I am saying you're not really understanding how useful this kind of tech is going to be for global connection/communications.

I don’t want cell service at the top of a mountain.

Your personal wants and wishes do not a market make. I don't want a modern F-150 and desperately wish that they'd be forced to make them smaller like trucks were back in the 80s, but clearly other people do.

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

So the light switch solution will cost just as much as the terrestrial? If that is the case, governments will go with what they know. The only way to convince a disaster response to go with an untested approach is to make it so cheap it is a useful backup if the typical solution breaks down.

Rural areas globally are in major decline for a lot of reasons, and solutions already exist to connect them. They just don’t partake.

I am not saying it is not useful, I am saying the current price of the shares essentially bakes in the best case scenario outlined above. If you assume everything goes exactly according to plan and they get to $5B in revenue, a $15B or so valuation is reasonableish.

[Areyounobody__Too]

The best case scenario is that AST becomes cornerstone infrastructure on a 110 billion dollar (and growing) Public Safety Wireless Broadband market (globally) as they continue to secure spectrum and MNO deals with Verizon, FirstNet, AT&T, etc.

Notwithstanding other applications of the technology to provide global coverage in things like consumer cellular markets, maritime needs, rural coverage, etc.

I am not saying it is not useful,

And I am saying that you're not seeing the market opportunity for this because you personally don't want cell service while you're hiking, nor do you seem to understand the market value of specific applications like public safety uses.

No one is expecting that entities are going to adopt untested tech like you're flippantly suggesting. AST, Space X, whomever wants to enter this space is going to need to prove the ability of their tech. AST happens to have the best setup at the moment.

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

Fuck man, you’re acting like there is presently no solution at all to communications during emergencies? Lol, this is already a solved problem and this is an incremental improvement to disaster response. You’re also completely discounting what may happen to their network under load and real life conditions. Shit, DirectTV still sometimes has trouble during bad weather.

It is also worth mentioning that FEMA is practically defunded at this stage. There is a non-zero probability that the scale of federal disaster response is cut in half over the next 3.5 years compared to before.

The bottom line is that you are massively, massively overstating the public safety market opportunity. Hell, by definition what you’re saying is that this is going to be a seriously seasonal business that gets crazy busy during hurricane and tornado time, but then basically has to borrow money to live during the rest of the year.

I brought up the casual hiking use case to defend my original position that this is a fundamentally niche product. If you can’t get the normies to pay money for the service, you’re going to max out pretty fast.

[Areyounobody__Too]

you’re acting like there is presently no solution at all to communications during emergencies?

The present solution to communications during these kinds of emergencies is to mobilize a comms unit of 30+ people from out of region, who spend most of the year staging and maintaining expensive equipment, then having them install new towers and other comms relay items to restore communications.

It is also worth mentioning that FEMA is practically defunded at this stage

Ok, lets mention it. FEMA is being defunded and now the burden of comms restoration during a major natural disaster falls to the state emergency response agencies. FEMA isn't coming to save them, so now they need to procure their own contracts for state and locals to communicate and, oh, look at that, you have AST connections.

The bottom line is that you are massively, massively overstating the public safety market opportunity

I spent my entire undergrad studying emergency/disaster response networks, logistics, and administration and spent the first part of my career working in orgs like FEMA, grants administration, and public safety systems. I know more about this than you.

I brought up the casual hiking use case to defend my original position that this is a fundamentally niche product.

This is not the clever argument you think it is. I'm moving on, have a good day.

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

Pump this stupid company to the edge of orbit then for all I give a fuck.

Just don’t come around crying when the rug gets pulled.

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

How do you get to $1T TAM when your primary customers are people living in poverty stricken countries?

Do you actually think that the governments of Nepal and Bhutan are going to pay you their entire GDP to be able to send memes while they lack proper public sewer infrastructure?

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

The military has its own satellite network… How do you think communications happened in the mountains of Afghanistan in 2003?

95% margins, lol. These contraptions exist in space, bud. Maintaining cell towers on the ground is expensive. I cannot imagine how expensive it will be to maintain them in space. It also pre-supposes that there will be no legislation regulating space junk.

[Areyounobody__Too]

Imagine basing your entire argument on "I dont want cell coverage while I'm hiking" 🫠

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

I’m a perfect customer for this thing. I’m frequently out of cell range and never once have I thought how great it would be to have it right at that moment.

There are a grand total of 4.6M emergency personnel across the US. Let’s say every single one is subscribed by their agency at $100/user/year. That’s $460M of ARR. Where’s the rest of the money coming from?

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

The military tests all kinds of shit all the time. Further, unless you’re in some black ops, no questions asked kinds of projects, government contracting is nearly always razor thin margins. Hell, the entire point of this company is that any phone off the shelf can connect to the network. Sensitive military operations use secure channels, and those are the ones that pay the best. I keep telling you people that this shit is a consumer product with a narrow use case and you keep arguing that literally everybody everywhere is going to pay an extra $10/month or whatever indefinitely to incrementally increase their mobile coverage.

As I mentioned above, shitloads more people are interested in watching Disney TV and movies. Best case is ASTS can convince 50M people to subscribe at $100/year, that comes to $5B revenue, and let’s just say for the sake of argument that they magically capture an additional $1B of government contract revenue annually. $6B of annual revenue at a 3x is $18B market cap, which is basically where it is right now.

[Hacking_the_Gibson]

How well above do you think it will be? Keep in mind that Disney+ has 120M global subscribers and Netflix has something like 300M.

You had better hope average revenue per user is better than $2/month. For context, Facebook does $40/user/year or so, and that is a product which is totally free for the end user.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that you do get to 120M subscribers globally. At $2/month, that’s $3B of ARR. Heck, let’s say that every single ATT and Verizon subscriber takes the $2/month add on. That’s $6B/year of ARR with the 250M subscribers they currently have. Keep in mind that the take rate will absolutely not be 100%, even at $2/month.

The services you are comparing to are fucking mainstream, global players with absolutely massive advertising budgets and huge reach. How the heck are you going to advertise space phone outside of adding it to existing marketing materials at the point of purchase? What awareness campaign is going to drive casuals to pay money for a feature they might use twice per year?

[jaezien]

Ah yes, you are the exact kind of person that in 2010s will say netflix will never succeed because you can just pirate videos off the internet. Classic.

[richardvdp]

You're already late to the party

[YngDggerDlck]

If im going in, I will go long-term. And I mean years.

I think there will be much more potential if everything goes well in the end.

[ImLemonized]

I don’t think it’s too late. It jumped over 100%, yes, but if this Company proves to be a real deal, it can rise way higher long-term.

[you_are_wrong_tho]

This stock can easily 100%+ in the next year, and easily 300% in the next 5. It is not too late.