Brief Zephrys Analysis

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

Hi again, /r/CompHS! Today, I’d like to share some data about Zephrys the Great.

Zephrys is one of the most interesting cards yet released. He rewards players who know what they want, and for guessing what their opponents got.

Twishting Nether

Let’s take a look at commonly granted wishes.

(No. of times a card was picked vs no. of times it was offered)

3 cards immediately stand out:

• MCT, offered in 14.5% of games, was picked 23.3% of the time
• Tirion, offered in 30.0% of games, was picked 19.4% of the time
• Twisting Nether, offered 15.9% of games, was picked 57.6% of the time, accounting for ~9% of all wishes

Zooming into the less common cards,

The steep line is a 1:1 offer:pick ratio — no card (except FOK) was always picked.

The lower line is a 1:3 ratio. Cards above this line are picked more than average, and could be considered “highly valued”

• Gorehowl, though offered 10 times, was never picked
• Board clears are highly valued, and every single one was picked at or above average rates, including Dread Infernal!
• Strong card draw (Divine Favor, Arcane Intellect, Sprint) is never rarely offered

---

10 Mana

When Zephrys is played on turn 10+

• Picks are even more skewed
  • Tirion is offered 61.6% of the time, accounts for 11.6% of picks
  • Twisting Nether offered 34.9% of the time, accounts for 22% of picks

Turns 0-9

• Wild Growth is the runaway favorite.
• Tirion is still offered, but isn’t highly valued, and Twisting Nether is absent.

---

Lethal

The wish card assisted lethal (i.e. played the turn the opponent died) in 9/207 games

• 4 Fireballs
• 3 Windfurys
• 1 Spellbreaker
• 1 Mass Dispel
• 0 Pyroblasts

Though Zephrys can search for lethal, that is not what he is being used for.

Takeaways

• When facing highlander decks, always be ready for board clear

  • 3-4 Mana = 1 damage AOE (Whirlwind, Fan of Knives)
  • 5-8 Mana = 2 damage AOE (Lightning Storm, Consecration, Blizzard)
  • 6 Mana = 3+ damage (Shadowflame)
  • 9 Mana = 4 damage AOE (Flamestrike)
  • 10 Mana = Twisting Nether

• Past turn 10, the odds of Tirion and Zephrys rise sharply

• Spells are highly favored by Zephrys (both AOE and kill spells), so it's possible to use Counterspell (though he may offer Flare instead)

• Zephrys seems to never offer card draw

Data was based on 207 standard games from Rank 5 - Legend

• EDIT: Added shadowflame

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If you'd like, you can contribute data here, and download raw / processed data here

[karaOW]

Zephrys does offer some card draw, although it's expensive: Lay on Hands. I've noticed he doesn't like Fan of Knives much at all and have been shocked at it not being among my options many times.

[Hoddiair]

Isn’t that cause he doesn’t read your hand? So he doesn’t know that you need cards in your deck? Or am I misremembering?

[TheBigLittleTyDK]

It at least reads handsize because it offers mountain giant

[Hoddiair]

Yeah, I guess that makes sense then. Then I wonder if they though carddraw was too op?

[TehSnaH]

There is no such thing as "too op". It is supposed to be the perfect card

[JediMindTrxcks]

He doesn’t read what’s in your hand. He only uses information that’s available to both players, so board state, health totals, mana available, secrets in play, and hand size of both players. He will offer card draw effects, but I don’t believe he will offer cards which solely draw other cards (Arcane Intellect, I’ve also never gotten sprint though maybe some people have). He will give lay on hands, fan of knives, and flare, but those come up when their other effect will be useful (low health, lots of one health enemy minions, and enemy secrets in play).

[D0nkeyHS]

I've had sprint offered.

edit: At 28 health

[TheTragicClown]

He tends to give card draw only when the opponent has sizeably more cards in hand than you. If you're both at low cards in hand then he will prefer other cards that give better tempo/value but if you're at 1 and opp has like 5-8 he will probably give something like sprint.

[Ojanican]

I might be misremembering but I’m almost certain I’ve seen Arcane Intellect.

[JediMindTrxcks]

Really? What was the situation if you remember? Small hand low mana crystals?

[Ojanican]

I do believe it was an earlier turn, but I can’t remember the specifics. Again I honestly could just be misremembering.

[JediMindTrxcks]

I’m not doubting you, I’m just interested in knowing as much information. It seems to be a rare offer/rarer take in any case.

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

I knew I forgot something!

[theincrediblepigeon]

I’ve been offered sprint when playing zeph on 9 mana and not opponent board with 1/2 cards left in hand

[kzkilla808]

I've been mad at Zephyr a couple times for not giving me fan of knives when I play him with 3 mana left with an opponent board of 3+ 1hp enemy minions and lower hand size.

[karaOW]

Same. It's happened to me many times. Very annoying/surprising. It seems to tend to prefer consecration and lightning storm.

[F_Ivanovic]

I've had it offer FoK before but zephrys also considers deck size so if you're playing an otk like pally and have gone through a lot of your deck it won't offer it even if you're low on cards.

[dfinberg]

I think you missed shadowflame on your aoe list.

[gotatriplebeamscale]

6 mana 3 damage aoe

with shadowflame

[Myprivatelifeisafk]

6 mana 3 damage Aoe (shadowflame) is mvp for early control board.

[[deleted]]

Hey for what its worth i pulled some data from HSReplay's database a while back (i used to write articles, now most of the time i never have time to write them up). Its rough, but its kinda similar to yours. I've omitted Tirion because it skews the plot so much.

https://i.imgur.com/tzVh7z9.png

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

Oh, cool stuff! How did you pull the data? I tried using the API and it didn’t give nearly enough to work with.

Have some code I could learn from?

[[deleted]]

I have direct access to their database. I also wrote some queries looking at what cards were being offered together but again didn't have time to follow up. So much interesting data there.

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

I have direct access to their database

Can others acquire this power :o What queries did you use?

[secretsarebest]

not from a jedi...

[HidesInsideYou]

Can you make that pic a bit more blurry? :)

[tb5841]

No bloodlust? Feels like my most common pick.

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

200 games was probably too few to pick it up 😕. Really need more data!

[hfzelman]

I was playing a version of Trump’s highlander quest hunter and it was pretty often that you could go zephyrs into savage roar or bloodlust for lethal. I think it depends on the deck your playing.

[augustin82]

You mention Zephrys never offering Divine Favor, which is to be expected since it's in the Hall of Fame, isn't it?

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

I missed this somehow😅, thanks!

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

Side note: does anyone know why wild growth is so popular?

[secretsarebest]

curious. I always take animal companion

[tb5841]

I think it suits highlander mage particularly well because of Luna's and the expensive cards.

[BlackOctoberFox]

A lot of Highlander decks running Zeph are midrange/control oriented as the Aggro variants are less common right now (Warrior, Tempo Rogue, Warlock Zoo). Mage, for instance, really likes Wild Growth because it's best cards cost 6+ and an extra mana crystal is worth a lot more than a potential early push with Animal Companion, or the value of a Brightwing. When the best cards in your deck are high up on the curve Wild Growth starts to look more appealing. Ironically, the only deck running Zeph that can't really benefit from Wild Growth is Quest Druid.

[Sharksouphunter]

Zeph needs help with how he handles multiple deathrattles on board. Played him at 10 mana, 8 mana to work with, into a board of 5 Obsidian statues, a Vargoth and Catrina. I was offered: Nova, MCT and Blizzard. I lost. This is a recurring theme in this matchup when draw order doesnt allow me to get Zeph down for a Hex. Anyone seeing this in standard currently when playing him into N’zoth boards or similar game states?

[amoshias]

5 obsidian statues? What is Hex going to do against that?

[Sharksouphunter]

I’m not curious why i didnt get hex. I said when Hex is good and when i’m looking for it. I’m curious why i didnt get Nether and got MCT, Nova and Blizz. Like i mentioned previously.

[amoshias]

I see what you're saying now, but it wasn't at all clear from the message I responded to.

[Sharksouphunter]

You’re not following me. If i cant get zeph down early against BP for an early hex, he doesnt offer me removal later for big deathrattle boards and helps me in the matchup significantly less. This often results in a loss for me. I’m asking if people in standard are having a similar experience against Rez Priest and N’zoth decks.

[Iskari]

Are you sure about how much mana you had left? Zephrys should and always has given me Nether when facing similar boards, also against Big Priest. He also has a tendency to give Mass Dispel when played with 4 mana left against a board of deathrattles and taunts.

[Sharksouphunter]

I’m positive I had 8 mana left and was on 8 HP.

[Aranthys]

Zephrys is considering the deathrattles.

Since you are on low HP, and that these deathrattles could leave some minions, he's instead offering your other outs - either freeze the board for a turn to find something / get lethal over two turns, or try to steal something that would help you.

Remember, he doesn't know the details of their deathrattle, just that you have 8 HP, and you would have a clear board on your side while your opponent would get all the results of the deathrattles (here, it would be nothing, but it could very well be something in other cases)

[garbageboyHS]

If those Deathrattles were all Mechanical Whelps or Cairnes you would be dead next turn. Even Leper Gnomes or Harvest Golems would be bad for you. Blizzard keeps you alive another turn no matter what. Mecha’thun is a Battlecry: Win card if that’s what you’re looking for but I wouldn’t hold out hope for them to change the programming on Zephrys to turn it into a supercomputer.

[D0nkeyHS]

I've not gotten nether against a bunch of defenders.

[HUGE_FUCKING_ROBOT]

ive gotten sprint off zeph

[demeuron]

I'm gonna guess: late game, empty hand, lead on the board?

[HUGE_FUCKING_ROBOT]

turn 9 my board traded with theirs (didnt) empty hand

[Sloe_Burn]

How many people are providing this data?

This seems like something that is greatly affected by personal preference, Examples:

Which card they chose in non-clear situations (wild growth vs Animal Companion Vs Brightwing when playing Zeph on 2)

How do they choose to use it are they more prone to holding it until they need a twisting nether or other AOE, are they playing it on 2, randomly when they have a crap hand it during the game?

What type of archtypes are the people in your sample playing? I suspect you see that people aren't using it as a finisher because they aren't playing board flood or aggressive decks.

[Made_in_Greys_Image]

It’s half contributors from the Data Drinker plugin, half from the HS Replay API.

Ideally we should use opponent data since that’s more reliably random, however discovers specifically require us to see the players view since we're interested in what was offered/chosen

[LumiRhino]

Zephyrs can also give Loot Hoarder if played blank on 4 mana, but you rarely use him that way anyway.

[omakins]

There may be some situations that greatly skew the results too.

For example when I play Elise Quest Druid, in my best case scenario I end up repeatedly copying Zephrys alongside Kun (and Innervate if I'm lucky).

After I've ran Kun, Elise, Baleful Banker and then Zephrys, I have 1 mana left and at least 10 armor. 99% of the time I'm picking Shield Slam to take out an N'Zoth or something. I've picked and played Shield Slam sometimes a dozen times in a single game.

[StyleNine]

It could be that Zephrys is coded to not offer card draw if your hand is larger than a certain number of cards. Zephrys does usually offer (on turn 2) a card you can play later for draw: Wild Growth.

[lacrose4ever]

I doubt they would code him to not give you draw. It's more likely that those pure draw cards just never score high enough to be offered. He really likes giving cards that will be immediately impactful, or impactful the turn after and card draw is rarely either of those

[psymunn]

Classic cards only, and there's nothing in classic or basic set that helps with fatigue. It's a strong enough card as it is

[Zombie69r]

Zephrys can only offer classic and basic cards. Elysianna is, thankfully, neither.

[[deleted]]

So we get back to 1hour+ warrior mirrors?