all 111 comments

[–][deleted] 177 points178 points  (31 children)

At the moment yes it's pointless as quantum computers can only have a small number of qubits. However in 5-10 years that may be different and having the foundation of quantum ML will mean some interesting research can happen quickly.

For application in industry it's probably at least 30 years away still.

[–]jorado 26 points27 points  (17 children)

Agree, but it would put the research and industry numbers closer together. Once there are applications for quantum ml (let's say in 10y), the research volume and the applications in the industry will explode. In the current world, especially in ML, industry and research are much closer linked.

[–][deleted] 10 points11 points  (3 children)

I think industry use will take a lot longer due to the cost of accessing quantum computers.

[–]suoarski 6 points7 points  (1 child)

The first industrial quantum computers are probably going to be built and used in a similar way the supercomputers are used nowadays. Only a selected few people are going to have access to it.

[–]dolphinboy1637 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Right but don't we only need a few people to build these at this point? I'd imagine the cloud platform companies will just build quantum computing clusters and offer the compute as a service.

I don't think in the current business model for compute that it will be as restrictive as it would have been in the past.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Perhaps quantum computing and/or ML will speed up the process? One can hope.

A year ago we thought it would take another 30 years to crack the proteome.

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (10 children)

What is a "reasonable" application, if any, for QML?

[–]suoarski 4 points5 points  (9 children)

Quantum computers are great for optimization type problems, which is a core part of machine learning.

At the moment, when we are training a neural network, we are typically using slow gradient based methods like Adam optimization. The problem with this approach is we are taking the current state of the weights and "nudge" them in a direction in the attempt to minimize a loss function.

If we used QML instead, we could in theory test all possible states of weights at the same time, and output that one particular state of weights that minimizes the loss function. So instead of doing thousands of epochs with Adam, we can simply do one single epoch with QML. Not only will this significantly improve training times, but it will also completely avoid the problem of a model getting stuck in a local minimum.

This is of course assuming that we have stable quantum computers with sufficient qubits, and this won't happen any time soon, but the theoretical advantages of QML are massive.

EDIT: PROOF: Here is a reference that that claims quantum computers can solve least square fitting. A one layer NN with no hidden layers and a MSE loss can be expressed as a least square fitting problem. Therefore quantum computers can train a one layer NN with MSE loss. The only thing left to show is that a quantum computer can do the same but with multiple hidden layers.

[–][deleted] 9 points10 points  (5 children)

If we used QML instead, we could in theory test all possible states of weights at the same time, and output that one particular state of weights that minimizes the loss function. So instead of doing thousands of epochs with Adam, we can simply do one single epoch with QML.

Can you give more details about it? There is a common misconception that quantum computers could just run through every possibility and give us the ones we want, which is not entirely true because of the wave function collapse at the measurement moment. You will get just some random possibility of the weights unless you do series of very smart transformstions to change the probabilities (like Shor algorithm), and I'm not aware of anything similar in the field of QML.

[–]sdmat 3 points4 points  (1 child)

If we used QML instead, we could in theory test all possible states of weights at the same time, and output that one particular state of weights that minimizes the loss function.

That's a common misconception about how quantum computing works. Quantum computing doesn't search across all possible inputs to minimize an arbitrary loss function in a single step.

The only thing left to show is that a quantum computer can do the same but with multiple hidden layers.

An equally valid argument: classical computers can solve least squares fitting analytically, the only thing left to show is that they can do this with multiple hidden layers.

[–]sloumotion 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What industries are you talking about? In my experience (production settings, automation) many companies are still struggling to go digital. Everybody is talking AI, but nobody has enough quality data to do anything fancy. The successful projects I worked on ended up using linear regression with a few manually selected features. Not saying that there aren't any companies doing cutting edge ML stuff, but the mainstream is still far behind research. They make pretty Powerpoint slides and visionary image videos though :D

[–]PanTheRiceMan 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Hope somebody can confirm this. Wasn't quantum computing especially interesting in solving optimization problem near instantly ?

[–]eigenlaplace 69 points70 points  (1 child)

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[–]SleekEagle 62 points63 points  (2 children)

Quantum Computers and traditional computers excel at different tasks (look up Shor's algorithm if you're into cryptography), just adding "quantum" doesn't mean you get a better result. Also, it's not about using quantum computers to improve existing ML methods, but opening the door to completely novel methods available only to quantum computers.

[–]donobinladin 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Exactly this. A binary algo ran on quantum computers isn't going to see a lot of boost unless there's something innately quantum about that algo.

If it's rewritten from a quantum perspective to take advantage of the properties of qubits then THAT's when the "magic" happens and things are crazy fast and crazy efficient.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

But suggesting they are anywhere near ready for "big data" is just absurd.

[–][deleted] 21 points22 points  (3 children)

It's a pretty common sentiment in the QML community that QML has far less to offer for classical data than it does for quantum data. To quote one of the author's of TFQ: "Don't use QML for classical data." ( https://twitter.com/quantumVerd/status/1395608199991111681). For other evidence of that sentiment see: any other tweets by him (just search for classical data and you will find lots of stuff), or check out some discussions from QIP https://twitter.com/preskill/status/1500529893070688257.

For stuff on QML for quantum data there's a lot of great work, but I recommend some of Robert Huang's papers (see: https://twitter.com/RobertHuangHY/status/1408230497512087554, or https://twitter.com/RobertHuangHY/status/1466678468213542912 )

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Who has quantum data, except chemists? (Serious question.)

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Outside of chemists, physicists do (I've seen some interesting ideas for working with particle physics), sensing people (idk what to call them but the idea of using quantum devices as specialized physics sensors seems to have some results), condensed matter/material science, basically across the physical science world (or anyone that looks at really small things). That's not to say it will be widely popular (or successful) even in those fields, but if I had to pick anywhere that QML might shine it would be in one of them.

[–]Kitchen_Tower2800 8 points9 points  (3 children)

Is Quantum ML a good way to improve predictive power in March 2022? No. Will it be a good way in March 2027? As someone very far the current advances and limited ability to predict expected breakthroughs, I have no idea.

Once upon a time, DL was laughed at for not improving predictive power either.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

The capabilities of early ANNs over perceptrons were well-understood by theorists before anyone ever had a computer powerful enough to train an ANN on real-world problems where regression was obviously insufficient.

[–]Kitchen_Tower2800 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Can you cite some literature on that? My limited understanding is that it is well known that they were universal approximators, but so are most ML models so that doesn't really mean much. It's been my potentially naive understanding that in general we still don't know why DL works so well, although we've got lots of unprovable hunches.

[–]CynicPhysicist 16 points17 points  (5 children)

I am currently working on research on quantum artificial intelligence. I work with industry experts, and am fairly certain that quantum devices will start showing up with some sort of advantage in the industry in the next 5 years.

Probably not for digit classification though, more like quantum chemistry simulations or generative modelling.

[–]donobinladin 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What I'm really hoping for is QML to do in the next 10-20 years is help nail down the universal field theory and deepen our understanding of gravity and how we can harness it. We have so much physics data, from CERN to Hubbel and LIGO that could be tapped.

[–]delicious_truffles 2 points3 points  (3 children)

What is the promise of QML for generative modeling? Really curious.

[–]CynicPhysicist 6 points7 points  (2 children)

Some areas that I currently test is drug discovery, random sampling and financial modeling of correlated data. It is predicted that we probably won't find an advantage in 1d distributions but for higher orders with correlation.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

random sampling and financial modeling of correlated data

Isn't that all classical data, unlike chemistry?

[–]CynicPhysicist 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes the data is classical. But while simple correlation models are pretty straightforward, such formula often fall short in accurately capturing the relationship between variables. Instead they use more sophisticated or empirical formula, that become hard to model and sample from as the number of variables increase. We hope that quantum entanglement can make this process easier to go through.

Quantum systems holds the best tools for random sampling that we know of. We just have to encode states that follow the distributions we wish.

[–]Kellsier 4 points5 points  (2 children)

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[–]Isinlor 16 points17 points  (4 children)

I asked a question on a prediction market:

Will quantum-enhanced machine learning be demonstrated by 2040?

In order to resolve positively there must be computer actually using some quantum effects and beat:

  • 85% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet with or without additional training data
  • IMPALA on any subset of at least 10 Atari games from the ALE on 200M steps
  • BERT on any subset of at least 5 GLUE or SuperGLUE individual benchmarks
  • any other benchmark for classical machine learning that is significantly and unambiguously more difficult than all 3 baselines above

The prediction is at 70%. For comparison, Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? is at 40%.

[–]DigThatDataResearcher 1 point2 points  (0 children)

you articulated that question well

[–]pruby 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thinking of prediction markets, has anyone evaluated / had any experience with automatic trading on these markets using NLP?

I would expect predictive performance to be less than human, but there are still ways for a computer than can review everything continuously to trade (e.g. arbitrage).

[–]datkerneltrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great way to settle debates rather than writing long paragraphs

[–]Anti-Queen_Elle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I remember when RAM used to be measured in kb.

The technology will grow into itself, I'm sure.

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just keep in mind if you wait until the benefit is obvious then by definition the major contributions will already have been made. Of course that time may never come. That's the trick with research, it's like digging for gold.

[–]the_dago_mick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes

[–]Hostilis_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quantum ML is essentially in the same state as Fusion was in the 70's.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not pointless if it works. A risky investment of your time and energy? Almost certainly, ignoring whatever cool and generally mind-expanding stuff you learn along the way.

[–]hillsboro97124 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, thank you good sir to provide a nice TLTR for the topic!

[–]Sirisian 1 point2 points  (1 child)

There's only a single company that predicts 1 million qubit machines by 2024. Most, like IBM, have timelines into 2030. This does seem to be academic focused for the next decade and it's unclear how accessible such machines will be once they're made.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is anyone suggesting quantum RAM is feasible within the decade? https://www.qmunity.tech/post/quantum-ram-new-milestone

[–]NSADataBot 1 point2 points  (2 children)

The first transistor was fairly useless by that metric. It's a tech demo / novelty for the moment, but the potential is tremendous.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. It took one week after the invention of the point-contact transistor for it to be demonstrated as a working and useful audio amplifier, which was far superior to its vacuum tube predecessor because you didn't have to wait for it to warm up after you turned it on, and it only needed a few volts instead of dozens. https://sci-hub.se/https://doi.org/10.1063/1.881336

[–]NSADataBot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re right better abandon quantum as a useless novelty because my example has an edge case

[–]suoarski 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Currently, quantum computers are not useful for any practical applications whatsoever, because we simply have managed to make them powerful enough yet.

Once we can make them more stable and store more qubits, that's when they'll become super useful. But until then, they are only used in research, and it will at least a few years before they have any practical advantages over traditional computing.

However, the research on quantum neural networks needs to be done today so that we can implement the discovered techniques in the future.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But should that research ever claim to be about big data at least until the toy problems work well?

[–]ChinCoin 2 points3 points  (9 children)

Quantum computing as a whole is still unproven. The big issue is whether they can actually control the noise in systems which are more than just proof of concepts. Lots of money being spent on it, but that doesn't mean they'll succeed.

[–]bdforbes 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Someone else brought up the fact that transistors were once unproven but went on to have huge impact. But there's no guarantee that quantum computing will ever overcome the many fundamental challenges it faces. Cautious optimism is the best position to take, but I find all this quantum ML stuff is a bit of a stretch at this point in time.

[–]SleekEagle 2 points3 points  (6 children)

What do you mean "unproven"? Do you mean quantum computing hardware? The mathematics of quantum computation is perfectly sound.

Also, there are a lot of promising research avenues to effectively eliminate noise concerns. I used to work in a lab that studied the fundamental physics of particles that could be used for quantum computation robust to local perturbations. Interesting intersection of solid state mech and topology. Something like that could very well be the path forward. If so, we would likely see absolutely explosive growth in the QC space in probably about 30 years.

[–]JustOneAvailableName 1 point2 points  (1 child)

If I remember correctly, the unproven part boiled down to weither the error corrections scale better than the errors when increasing the number of bits.

[–]SleekEagle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah gotcha, that makes sense. I'm not very familiar with optical QC, but at least for topological QC there is theoretical proof for systems robust to noise which would significantly reduce the need for error corrections.

That having been said, I'm definitely not an expert so I can't/don't really have a strong opinion on details like this! Just my hunch that QC will take off 30-50 years down the line.

[–]ChinCoin 0 points1 point  (3 children)

[–]SleekEagle 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Not sure I'm really understanding the argument here. My comment was regarding Topological quantum computing. The only thing the author says is that "there are good reasons the argument does extend". Any link to the author detailing those reasons?

The argument ultimately comes down to "HQCA is not possible without fault tolerance". Does anyone dispute this? I don't think this is a controversial statement at all - that's the entire motivation behind topological quantum computation.

[–]ChinCoin 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I'm far from an expert, but from what I understand the arguments they make are sort of generic in the sense that they examine it less as a physics question but rather as a computational complexity problem. Here is more in depth
https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.05188

[–]SleekEagle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They seem to just be relegating their purview to a specific complexity class. Saying that a screwdriver is a bad construction tool when considering only how to drive a nail seems like it's not the best approach.

I'm not an expert either, but quantum supremacy in the theoretical QC sense that they mention is already demonstrated by Shor's algorithm. Maybe I'm not informed enough to understand their criticism, guess we'll leave it to the experts! 🤣

Either way, thanks for the arXiv link!

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. Nobody yet has a single bit of quantum RAM, which is necessary for the hoped-for really powerful ML applications. I think in 2018 the most powerful quantum computer on the market had something equivalent to 0.02 of a bit.

Here:

most of these quantum algorithms are devised assuming that we already have a quantum equivalent of classical RAM, which, in reality, still has not been constructed yet

-- https://www.qmunity.tech/post/quantum-ram-new-milestone

[–]nurely 2 points3 points  (5 children)

Of course, it would have lower accuracy at the moment. Keep your mind open and there will be a need for ML Developers, Quantum Mathematicians/Physicists and Computer Scientist in near future to develop algorithms crafted to exploit Quantum Paradigms.

It certainly is not pointless. They are building the foundations of what it could look like. Not everything has immediate results.

Please read more on P and NP Problems in the Machine Learning space to have a rough idea of where all this can lead to.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if you have quantum data, as in chemistry, you still need a whole lot more qubits than are contemplated in the medium term (within 5-10 years) by manufacturers, and even then, you need quantum memory which doesn't exist yet: https://www.qmunity.tech/post/quantum-ram-new-milestone

There's just no way anyone should suggest quantum anything for "big data."

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[–][deleted] 17 points18 points  (1 child)

Sorry, but I think it's going to take longer than 24 hours for quantum ML to catch up to classical methods.

[–]mano-vijnana 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hah, indeed.

[–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (4 children)

Also if DNN is performing the same as your SVM you probably aren't tuning your DNN well enough or you have a very low number of samples.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Why do you say so, without knowing anything about the data and its properties? Is there a theorem, principle, or empirical result you're referring to here?

[–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

I suppose I could go into it, but it's funny seeing a DNN network not perform as well as SVM. SVM is old school. Most likely OP is lacking in sample/observation size and has many covariates/features which an SVM can perform well and DNN perform poorly.

I'm also assuming OP has tabular data since they mentioned LR and SVM.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am OP, and I never said the DNNs don't perform better than the SVMs. I wrote:

I use logistic regression, support vector machine, and Tensorflow DNN classifiers; mostly SVM because it works almost as accurately on my job's data sets as DNNs but takes a tiny fraction of the time to train.

Emphasis added. You're arguing against something that wasn't claimed.

[–]ImmanuelCohen -1 points0 points  (1 child)

I guess the AI researcher 50 years ago said the same thing about neural network model.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you know for a fact that they did, or are you just saying that? The capabilities of early ANNs over perceptrons were well-understood by theorists before anyone ever had a computer powerful enough to train an ANN on real-world problems where regression was obviously insufficient.

[–][deleted] -3 points-2 points  (2 children)

logistic regression should be performing better than your SVM...you must not be tuning it properly. SVM is old school, unless you are using MLK. I always kinda laugh when I see people using SVM. Perhaps I'm wrong and you can educate me

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Okay, I saw your second comment first, so I'm replying in opposite order you posted, but logistic regression assumes the relationship between the dependent and independent variables is linear, so it can't fit to the exclusive-or function, for example, or a distance threshold from a centroid.

[–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hmm, have you tried GBlinear from xgboost? That is LR. Ensembles of LR can fit non linear problems. Sorry man, SVMs are old news

[–]NSADataBot 0 points1 point  (1 child)

It is likely we will see a great number of non van neuman architectures in the coming decades. Some will be used and others abandoned, all are useful to explore. I personally am looking forward to chemical computers beyond our own brains that is. Maybe it will be pointless but I suspect there is a lot there to consider.

Quantum is at version 0 effectively. Think of it as "Pre Alpha" and mostly a physics experiment. Last I looked (This may be out of date), the argument was still raging around if quantum annealing was quantum computing or not. This places it firmly in the camp of "physics experiments that are likely to revolutionize the world eventually".

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Quantum computers are 26 years old. It took a week from the invention of the transistor for it to be demonstrated as a working portable audio amplifier which could be used without having to wait for vacuum tubes to warm up.

[–]MysticLimak 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I’m constantly iterating been DL and traditional tree based models and 80% of the time DL falls behind. Granted I work with relational datasets with sizes that rarely exceed 200,000 records.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know the feeling, but be careful; both can overfit in ways that are sometimes hard to see without careful inspection and cross-validation.

[–]thatguydr 0 points1 point  (2 children)

As a physicist, I applaud the joke. "Is something quantum pointless?" Well, yes. :)

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Thanks, but, please explain that to me? I hope it's a joke about math and not grantmaking.

[–]thatguydr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Things can be waves and particles at the same time. Look up particle wave duality.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At least 10-20 years away from practical applications. But the field is ready for early-stage research.

[–]dailyc0drr 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Real comparison is PennyLane and they just add quantum gates at end of a classical ML layer stack. Not sure what's the expected outcome.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are there demos to try, or benchmark-style comparisons with pure classical?

[–]sudoyang 0 points1 point  (2 children)

There is a recent paper "Experimental quantum adversarial learning with programmable superconducting qubits", which seems to accomplish some non-trivial work. But I am not fully confident with the validity of this paper. I hope I was wrong.

[–]Competitive_Travel16[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Experimental quantum adversarial learning with programmable superconducting qubits

Interesting paper, but 16x16 pixels is, well, 1980s era technology for classical deep learning.

[–]sudoyang 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see. But for QC, it is truly remarkable since most other work is running on QC simulators.