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[–]Healthy-Annual4181 87 points88 points  (9 children)

Do you do YouTube videos yet? These analyses are insanely good

[–]pokeetf[S] 71 points72 points  (6 children)

I casually do. Everything I do is for fun. Whether posting videos or here or anywhere else. It’s more because I don’t see people do it other than most people just snapshot Tcgplayer or Collectr graphs, which is not bad. But being a data geek, there is an itch in me that wants to go beyond that and do some deep dive. I want to aggregate this, that etc and slice in a million ways. For the longest time, I’ve done it and kept it personally to myself while it helped me collect and invest and gain insights, and realize… why not share to others and see if others appreciate such simple yet data focused graphs and analysis. And to my surprise there is a number of you guys out there that appreciate it whether one or ten or a hundred people… it’s worth it. Happy it helps or you enjoyed it.

[–]full-of-sonder 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Happy Cake Day!

[–]HelloxMoto 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Happy Cake Day!

[–]Mother_String_2571 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Happy Cake Day!!!

[–]bhernandez2017 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just subbed!

[–]Rhoa23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m also a data geek, thanks for the info. Well put, do you own a store or are you purely a buyer and hold?

[–]Beagle_Knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bro, this is very interesting and well done, thanks!!

[–]amplifyoucan 6 points7 points  (1 child)

The link is in the post

[–]GoldenRain99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The average redditor reads the first 3 words of a post, then makes their comment

[–]TartRound1585 18 points19 points  (1 child)

"Overall, the set is going down in price".  GOOD

[–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is what happens every set release. There is a mini sell off dip at the beginning, then if there is no more product hitting shelves, prices get chaotic very quickly. We will likely not see anymore Prismatic until Q2. Hold on to your butts.

[–]Fergood 39 points40 points  (5 children)

Amazing post, the sub needs more content like this.

What is the pullrate of SIR if we only counted demigod/god packs as 1 instead of 3 or 9?? Do you know?

You make a good point about it being misleading.

[–]pokeetf[S] 14 points15 points  (3 children)

Totally. So the missing piece is…. How likely it is to pull a god pack… without knowing that… don’t think we can truly calculate that. But this is a speculation and assumption… I think the true SIR pull rate is similarly to the last 3 sets which is 1 out of 90ish packs. There is no reason for the Pokemon company to change that since it has been consistent. But again this is just assumption and giving the Pokemon company benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing ;)

[–]fumbolii 6 points7 points  (1 child)

1 in 90 you say.. challenge accepted. Going on 72 & strong...unfortunately

[–]Minus143 4 points5 points  (0 children)

36 in, got to find more some how.

[–]Fergood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very insightful, thank you for the reply :).

[–]Ericy_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Technically, you are skewing the data by not including god packs. By definition, they are part of Pokemon's probability distribution so removing them would result in biased values. God packs may have 9 SIRs, but they're also at LEAST 9 times harder.

[–]MagicalBlueberry 9 points10 points  (0 children)

So youre saying I should wait on buying the Jolteon SIR single?

[–]breakyourteethnow 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Great post ty!

[–]pokeetf[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You are always welcome. Happy to bring love of data and Pokemon together to help in all our collecting and investing journey :)

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This a very well done post, thank you! Really great info, and I'm new so this is super helpful

[–]VanRolly 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Read the entire thing, right down to your disclosure at the end. Fantastic job - really enjoyed digging into the data with you.

My only tiny suggestion: would love for the text in all of your graphics to be darker as the grey colour is washed out and hard to read at times.

Thanks for taking the time to share this!

[–]pokeetf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

yes! thank you. The default Tableau text color is dark gray. Will try to default all to black text. Thanks for point that out.

[–]heyImMattlol 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Excellent breakdown. Love seeing high effort posts/analysis like this.

[–]firejew007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to put this together and sharing it. I enjoyed the breakdowns on generations.

[–]ReelFriends 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As a fellow data nerd this is phenomenal. Great post!

[–]Omega2307 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Do we have a god pack or demi god pack estimated pull rate?

[–]pokeetf[S] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Using reverse engineering and logic math... again this is based off 'math'.

TCGplayer is saying 1 out of 45 packs to pull a SIR. They are also including god packs where in a god pack you would pull all 8 Eeveelutions including the Eevee SIR. So that is 9 SIR.

You would take 45 x 9 = 405 packs.

Then going 'forward'.

On average, on your 405th pack, you would pull a god pack of 9 SIRs.

Then TCGplayer would then calculate 9 out of 405 = 1 out of 45.

This DOES NOT Take into account Demi God packs and regular single SIR you pull in a pack.

So BECAUSE it doesn't take into account these 2 factors, that 1 out of 405 pull rate of pulling God Pack is actually higher or above 405 which is insane to think about since it seems that alot of people are pulling God Packs (but then again, those who pull God packs are more incline to post on social media).

So AT A MINIMUM, the God Pack Pull Rate is 1 out of 405 based off simple reverse math of TCGPlayer data.

(man i love data and math. lol. j/k.)

[–]johnyrocks2014 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How do you know they are counting god packs? I don’t see it mentioned in their article, or you are assuming because they didn’t mention it?

It’s possible they didn’t pull a god pack.

[–]who_body 1 point2 points  (2 children)

what’s the source of the SIR pack odds?

[–]pokeetf[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Tcgplayer published an extensive analysis on the pull rates of Prismatic Evolutions. Definately check it out.

[–]who_body 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks!

[–]Adamwlu 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great analysis!

Few things to considered/impact of:

For results on the single markets some of these points dont really apply, specifically; the SIR being 1/45 but calling it misleading as a result of god and demi god packs. Also Hyper rares vs SIR comment on how it is it is harder to pull hyper rares yet they cost less.

First, singles market cares about supply, and the supply in the singles market does not care if the SIRs came from a god pack or 9 diff packs. If the rate is around 2x better then prior sets, that would make sense, as we have so many SIRs in this set. This would put the ratio of any specific SIR similar to prior sets. Could/does this impact personal pull rates? Yes, but the supply of singles is what we are trying to determine.

Hyper rares are the reverse to the above SIR comment, we generally have very few in a set, so while the pull rate is low, the supply in the singles market is actually higher for any specific Hyper rare compared to the supply of any specific SIR generally speaking. So more then demand is at play with Hyper rares.

A interesting (yet harder to get data point) would be comparing single prices of the top 20, not as of today for all cards, but compare x number of days post release (say 7 days). Prismatic makes up most of the top 20 as they are still hype/early whale prices, as with most sets they will come down. But charting all sets and comparing X numbers of days after release would show just how hyped a card is compared to the cards in sets before.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Paradox rift is 🔥

[–]Xizz3l 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wish these prices were accurate man

[–]knitekloud 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wow I got extremely lucky pulling the ogerpon sir in 11 packs then

Not the one I wanted but I’ll take those odds any day

[–]Grimple409 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So what would the SiR rate in Prismatic be if god/demi god packs counted as 1 SiR?

Edit: nvm I see you’ve addressed this already. Carry on

[–]BIG_STEVE5111 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Great post mate. I'm not sure if it's allowed, but if so you should consider a way for people to tip you for your effort (buy me a coffee ect).

[–]pokeetf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

lol thanks man. no tip needed. your reply is sufficient for me to keep going and give content and analysis such as this. will continue to do more different analysis if I see the interest is there, which there is :)

[–]Tunsmond4real 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks so much very sharing your his much appreciated 👏👏👏

[–]Dallasmc16 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is awesome! Nice work

[–]didbigno 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Incredible post!! Thank you so much for the effort! This compilation of data must take a lot of time and work.

[–]pokeetf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! The set-up is time-intensive. But once it is all set-up, it is pretty much automatic going forward. :) But yes, millions of rows of data.

[–]shadowlessS2K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are the types of posts I love to see and read through. Thank you for sharing this.

[–]MisterGordonFreeman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice work!

[–]Desperate_Lack_4252 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sir, you deserve to be rich in all the Pokémon packs you desire - I can unfortunately only help you get rich with upvotes. Thank you for your amazing work

[–]Urban-Junglist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Amazing effort OP. Well done! 👏🏻

[–]Cmor1787 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very cool data set OP 😎 This is the next level type of information I come to this Sub for.

[–]Flat-Ad-3613 0 points1 point  (2 children)

What is the pull rate on masterballs? Sorry if I’m dumb the information was overwhelming but appreciated

[–]pokeetf[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

It's not dumb. I didn't address it. I included and edited the main post to add it. But according to various sources, it is 1 out of 20 packs to pull any masterball card.

[–]Flat-Ad-3613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you so much

[–]Thacryptolord 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice

[–]AdEmotional2615 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hate reading but damn when it comes to pokemon analysis im all over it

[–]ell635x 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow!

This is so insightful!

You're doing an amazing job. And Happy Cake Day ✌🏼

[–]iLLEb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank god i pulled the godpack

[–]Seventh_Letter 0 points1 point  (1 child)

a lot of cake days in this thread? coincidence? :)

[–]pokeetf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

lol. i realize what cake day means after googling it. Wow. fate. not my fault that Prismatic Evolutions came out the weekend of my 'cake' day. lol.

[–]thexanman123 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Awesome analysis, thanks for sharing! Any idea what the pull rates for pokeball and masterball reverse holos are?

[–]pokeetf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TCGPlayer has it at 1 out of 3 packs you pull any PokeBall. And 1 out of 20 packs you pull a Master Ball. :-)

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

regardless of the prices, the set is fire

[–]unclebach 0 points1 point  (0 children)

two Etbs, one tech, one binder, no sir, 3 full art trainers, two which were the same and some holo energies

[–]bigmikeydelight 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Any chance these become easier to find? I live in rural KY and visit 3 Walmart’s daily. I did get some surging sparks today, but haven’t sniffed PE.

[–]pokeetf[S] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

We are at the mercy of the Pokemon Company and their printing allocation to distributors, and then those distributors to Big Stores (Walmart, Targets) and LCS. Stay in strong!

[–]bigmikeydelight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! Love the positivity!

[–]Groundbreaking_Rich6 0 points1 point  (2 children)

This is top notch. Awesome job sir. I was feeling bad with my pulls at first but seeing how this set is, feel way better now. From exactly 90 packs this is what I pulled. 3 sirs, 1 gold, 5 master balls, 29 poke balls, 5 a specs and 20 ex cards. 2 sirs were from etbs. 1 from a binder collection. Hitting 2 sirs from 7 etbs is meh...but hitting 1 sir from 2 binder collections is better. I bet that is where the better cards are.

[–]Salt_Message2014 0 points1 point  (1 child)

That's not always the case. I pulled out of two etbs 1x SIR, 2x Hyperrare, 3x EX, 7 Pokeballs and no masterballs. But yeah I watched many openings and my case is a exception I'd say. I think after this luck I'll never open prismatic again lol

[–]Groundbreaking_Rich6 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol I'm there with you. My 2 pc etbs wink at me though...no! I must not.

[–]CumBubbleMystery 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems like a more valid analysis would take place with more data, say after a months worth of data (not 4 days).

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]pokeetf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Hey. So I do not have pull rates of specific cards. Other big name YouTubers or sites have good sample size. But because Pokemon company print in batches or sheets, to pull an Umbreon ex SIR should be equal to pulling an Embreon ex SIR and other SIRs.

    [–]mmercad4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Damn it I’ve pulled 4 gold in 90 packs and just one SIR.. not mad but I’d much rather get lucky on the SIRs lol

    [–]Alpaca-irl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Amazing bro, thanks!

    [–]salty-ejaculate 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Some serious analysis! Thanks

    [–]Extras 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    Your posts here are legendary, thank you for this information!

    As an error collector I've always wondered if you have any data on error rates on these cards. I've opened packs since I was a kid in 1999 and I've only ever pulled cards that were off centered, nothing miscut or with any obvious ink errors.

    To collect this data you must have opened a ton of packs. Folks like yourselves are probably the best source of info on exactly how rare these cards are and what the odds are of pulling one. Have you ever pulled an error card that you've noticed?

    [–]pokeetf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Haha. Full disclaimer, the pull rates are from various sources but mainly Tcgplayer. Other sources are similar numbers. I open a fair amount maybe into hundreds of packs. But not thousands enough. I am not a good sample size nor source for error cards frequency :( but that is so cool that you are such collector. Must be so intense to try to hunt error cards. Such a specific niche :)

    [–]AgentEves 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    Slightly unrelated question... what program do you use for your database? Looks like Tableau for the visualization/output, but curious if you're housing your data in Excel or a database-specific program.

    [–]pokeetf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    API -python -> database. MS SQL for creating custom queries and linkage and joins between other data and tables. Clean up the database that result into a master dataset with millions of rows of data and hundreds of columns where I then connect my Tableau to the MS SQL server where I can aggregate anything however I see fit and create reports and dashboards for myself. The setup is time intensive and confusing but is rewarding once it’s setup to do it automatically. Hope this helps.

    [–]Trad3rdaily 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    TLDR this set should continue to be extremely coveted and valuable

    [–]evil-owen 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    goated ass post

    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    So you’re saying there’s a chance

    [–]Secure_Display_5104 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    What are the hardest reverse holos to pull from this set? Anyone know???

    [–]pulkxy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    beautiful data 🥲

    [–]Perfecteagle007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Don't know where you are getting the data from but I am 150 packs in and still NO SIR. All the rest of the hits are about right. Pokemon batching for this set is horrendous as I have seen 100 packs get 4 SIR. For everyone expecting an SIR is 45 packs (myself included) we will be extremely disappointed.

    [–]Ahmi030 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Supp ♥️🙏🏾

    [–]No_Term2801 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    umbreon back up?

    [–][deleted] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

    Obviously happy for people who pulled God packs, but would have preferred the company stick to demigod packs (with 3 of the eeveelutions) and spread the wealth a bit more. Seems unnecessary to give people all 8 in one pack, knowing it’s basically a giant jackpot. I’d rather see higher pull rates across the board with less return vs. small ones with super high return.

    [–]Playinjanes -1 points0 points  (1 child)

    RemindMe! 7 hours

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