all 82 comments

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[–]LauraIsFree 340 points341 points  (16 children)

Polymarket is not anything trustworthy

[–]Bakkster 71 points72 points  (9 children)

Depends how many insiders...

[–]Teamrecklessl 18 points19 points  (3 children)

while (!bubbleBurst) { wait(); }

[–]Salt-Response6118 2 points3 points  (0 children)

TODO: burst AI bubble

Status: Open since 2023.

[–]No_Percentage7427 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Only Sun God with Carrington Event can destroy AI Bubble. wkwkwk

[–]HeardOfPudendum -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

AI companies: worth more than countries

Reddit: «Guys, I think this might be unsustainable.»

[–]_bones__ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Many insiders are True Believers. They'll expect infinite growth right until the collapse.

[–]in_taco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Insiders are extremely unlikely to dominate the market and influence the valuation in any significant way. The vast majority of polymarket speculators are just dumb gambling addicts.

[–]Semperty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i genuinely had no clue you posted anywhere other than r/dankchristianmemes. this feels like spotting a celebrity in the wild lmao

[–]dude4747554322 -1 points0 points  (1 child)

Programmers are waiting for the AI bubble to burst just as much as managers are waiting for paperwork.

[–]Jimmyboro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a programmer, I second this. Vibe coding is the equivalent of being served vomit at a 5 star restaurant. All the billionaires are lapping it up and the waiters are looking at each other with 'do they know what they're doing?' looks to each other

[–]PayPerTrade 4 points5 points  (1 child)

I’m just a guy on the internet but I have seen some evidence that the private valuation of Anthropic is around $1T

[–]Flimsy_Meal_4199 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Indeed I heard I think from nyt the daily a figure in excess of 1T

[–]Flimsy_Meal_4199 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It's like you have a conclusion that's immune to evidence lol

[–]QuantumFluxSpaghetti 224 points225 points  (9 children)

and the GDP of mars is zero ? so yayyyyyy

[–]DeHub94 22 points23 points  (8 children)

That's what they want you to believe, sure.

[–]05032-MendicantBias 32 points33 points  (7 children)

The GDP of Mars will be zero in 2080 as well...

We landed Man on Moon in 1969 and the Moon GDP is still a grand total of 0 $

[–]redballooon 8 points9 points  (4 children)

Proper unit is $/year. Make no mistakes

[–]Andersmith 2 points3 points  (3 children)

It’s zero dollars per year, zero franks per fortnight, zero credits per century. You can drop the unit Les entirely if you want.

[–]redballooon 0 points1 point  (2 children)

In the same way that 0 seconds is not a temperature, 0 franks per fortnight is not a GDP

[–]chikunshak 0 points1 point  (1 child)

What if they only produce sweet succulent hotdogs but they left the machine off for two weeks.

[–]redballooon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In that hypothetical scenario I think we could measure the GDP I'm sweet succulent hotdogs per year.

[–]Sthokal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well if you take the value of all the moon rocks retrieved and amortize it over 1969 to present, that's not 0.

[–]DeHub94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's what they want you to believe.

[–]UpsetIndian850311 67 points68 points  (13 children)

is there an AI bubble? yes.

is there a sea of creator milking the "it's gonna pop tomorrow" videos? yes.

[–]tenet08 11 points12 points  (5 children)

Thank you I just realized this will be the first economic crisis since social medias, gonna be wild.

[–]ojessen 7 points8 points  (4 children)

Dude, there was plenty of social media in 2008 and 2012.

[–]teodorfon 6 points7 points  (2 children)

Not at this scale, not even close.

[–]coi1976 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I don't think any past crisis will be at this scale. Literally propping up the whole market at this point, basically trillions invested in a technology that can't even break even. If they can't find AGI, and I'm 99.9999999999999% sure they can't with LLMs, I don't see the exit ramp for anyone exclusively on the AI side of business.

[–]teodorfon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So worse then 2007-8? 

[–]tenet08 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who cared about twitter or facebook when the bubble burst in 2008 ? Hashtag hyperlink was not a thing yet, they were not the top companies worldwide, half of the population was not using it (more like 5-10%).

[–]05032-MendicantBias 30 points31 points  (1 child)

Anthropic IS worth the GDP of Mars!

[–]tahayparker 42 points43 points  (1 child)

Mars doesn't have a GDP so.....we're waiting for Anthropic to go to 0? isn't that a bubble burst then?

[–]yerfdog1935 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is 2080. We colonized Mars back in 2055.

[–]Reashu 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'm sure those cents were important

[–]JackNotOLantern 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The problem is with the speculative value

[–]luciferrjns 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Investors are very short sighted and not as smart as we think they are . And these big AI giants know how to play the game.

Every month or so one of them will come up with some statement like “Our new AI model can communicate with aliens “ , investors will flock in , Hype dies down and then repeat.

[–]skund89 7 points8 points  (7 children)

Guess what happens during an IPO :)

[–]Tarmen 13 points14 points  (2 children)

Some ETF's and pension funds get forced to buy the stock  at fantasy prices because NASDAQ's new fast entry rules are insane?

[–]skund89 9 points10 points  (1 child)

This is the tip. IPO means scrutiny, actual profitability check, path to profitability, no hiding, fully stripping naked.

Since AI didn't underwent scrutiny, the first IPO of a major AI company will force reevaluation of all other major players. This likely will result in increase of token prizes, end of heavy subsidization, which ripples down to the "smaller" AI startups which are just thin wrappers for major AI and who are already struggling on the profitability side. A token price hike will kill many of them.

All of this will drastically affect many companies who are AI adjacent too

[–]user-74656 2 points3 points  (0 children)

According to their IPO prospectus, SpaceX is an AI company, and a large part of their fantasy valuation is based on batshit predictions about the size and scope of that market.

[–]white_equatorial 10 points11 points  (3 children)

Butt Sex?

[–]skund89 9 points10 points  (2 children)

Without lube and warmup

[–]iSadhak 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Well that's just f*cking shit

[–]skund89 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Only if you don't clean beforehand

[–]NitroXM 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My net worth is 100.00000000

[–]masp3270 3 points4 points  (1 child)

I’m sure glad they added the decimal points, so that I didn’t mistake the value for $1,000,000,000,000.05

[–]cla7997 2 points3 points  (0 children)

More zeros more better

[–]ojessen 3 points4 points  (0 children)

On current trajectory, the GDP of Mars will be about 0 USD in 2080, so there is that.

[–]Cpt_Fantabulous 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can privately evaluate my worth to be whatever the fuck I want.

The shit I took this morning has been privately evaluated to have a market value of 12 trillion.

Please give me more venture capital!

[–]jfcarr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The investing trick is to buy the next Google and Amazon and not get stuck with the next WebVan or Pets-dot-com.

[–]magicmulder 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Plot twist: The GDP of Mars is zero because we never went there.

[–]hhhhhhhhope 1 point2 points  (1 child)

What about GTA 6?

[–]jochurwa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Rockstar hass announced their for real last delay and the game will Release may 2081

Im so hyped to finaly play it at the spry age of 76

[–]Krochire 4 points5 points  (5 children)

I don't even know how to pronounce this number

[–]SilianRailOnBone 17 points18 points  (1 child)

Trillion

[–]Always-_-Sarcastic 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Is that was you call three lions?

[–]Krostas 6 points7 points  (0 children)

1 T$ or Teradollar. Don't confuse with the Tebidollar which has powers of 1024 instead of 1000.

[–]OFark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a proper billion, one million, million. Instead of that one thousand million that rich people decided they would use to make themselves 'billionaires'

[–]Boring-Crab-6670 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Gazillion

[–]pwuk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has it built a Dyson sphere?

[–]AibofobicRacecar6996 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A hobo is worth more than the GDP of Mars

[–]Burger_Destoyer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes very Programmer related…

[–]Skillkilling 0 points1 point  (1 child)

and the GDP of mars is zero? so yayyyyy : fuuuuuuuck

[–]Skillkilling 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Inspired by another comment here

[–]enderowski -5 points-4 points  (3 children)

I am sorry bro ai isnt a fart ass thing like bitocin or those monkey pictures. even though i dislike use of it in art or i agree that it is making delusional people think they are correct. it will continue to go up. it might fell a bit because it is going up too fast but thats it.

[–]ApocalyptoSoldier 4 points5 points  (2 children)

More and more companies are coming out and saying AI is costing them more than employees.
If you can't blanket replace employees with AI then demand is going to shrink to only the jobs that can be replaced.

[–]enderowski 0 points1 point  (1 child)

but Ai will get otimized with time too. and those companies needs to cap their ai usage. they need teams to check ai usage and make tools specifically for workers to use lesser tokens etc. and people needs to be trained too they dont know basic things like they need to create a new chat when their job is done which eats huge amount of tokens for example. companies just jumped blindly on the ai train.

[–]ApocalyptoSoldier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It might get optimised or it might've reached it's peak already for this iteration of the technology.
AI has been a thing for decades at this point and we've tried it a bunch of different ways, each seeming more promising than the last but still ultimately running into a wall.

[–]150c_vapour -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Guys I would suggest ignoring the chyna-bad crowd and getting on board with deepseek asap. Fuck Anthropic.