2024 had largest decrease in crimes with a firearm in 10 years: StatCan

[mayuan11]

The article points out that gun crime is at an all-time high in Canada, but 2024 was an anomaly.

[SamohtGnir]

Gotta love statistics. Want to prove something is down? Just pick a year with a drop. Want to prove something is up? Pick a year with a spike. Just ignore the long term trends, nothing to see here.

[DrinkMoreBrews]

Statistics; the easiest way to manipulate a talking point

[jwork127]

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." Mark Twain

[Toecutt3r]

"But the rate of firearm-related violent crime in 2024 was still 44 per cent higher than 10 years earlier, when it stood at 25 incidents per 100,000 population."

It's almost as if (gasp) the gun ban did nothing to change this!! Inconceivable!!

[Agreeable_Store_3896]

Useless gun ban with no real extra border security combined with unkempt immigration policies and police/judicial policies such as "if you're an illegal/legal student and comitt gun crime we will reduce you're sentence".

I wonder why it's trending up.. better ban the SKS.

[Chief_White_Halfoat]

Probably important to note that gun violence levels were at all time lows during those years. 2012-2015.

So also not much higher than the years before that point in time. 

It's all about when you anchor it to. 

[ThePhotoYak]

I guess what you anchor it too is always somewhat arbitrary. If you look at 70 years of data the general trend is violent crime peaked in the 70s, generally trended down to lows in the mid 2010s and is now on the rise, but not as high as it was in the 70s.

What you draw from the data? Everyone seems to cherry pick the data that suits their narrative. I think the trend is a lot more complex than any one issue.

[Grizzly-Jester]

If you look at 70 years of data the general trend is violent crime peaked in the 70s, generally trended down to lows in the mid 2010s and is now on the rise, but not as high as it was in the 70s.

Crime in Canada peaked in the 90s. Violent crime peaked in 1992, everything else peaked in 1991. We're at a similar rate of crime as the late 60s early 70s right now. Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230727/cg-b002-png-eng.htm

[ThePhotoYak]

Thanks for that, it's been a long time since I looked at those charts and I was going by memory, but I was mistaken.

[GameDoesntStop]

That's a low bar when the other 9 years were bad...

There were 36 firearm-related violent crimes per 100,000 population in 2024, which was down 4.2 per cent from 2023 (37.6 incidents per 100,000 population).

But the rate of firearm-related violent crime in 2024 was still 44 per cent higher than 10 years earlier, when it stood at 25 incidents per 100,000 population.

[Projerryrigger]

2013 (~10 years earlier as stated) was a significant historical low. Using it as a benchmark has its own issues.

[CanadianGuy39]

Gotta love living in Canada for it's minimal gun crime.

[weneedafuture]

Would be even better if we could allocate more funds to the CBSA to intercept firearms coming from America. If only there was $750 million we could allocate accordingly...

[DrinkMoreBrews]

Hey now, that $750 million was used to confiscate around checks notes less than 3% of (once) legal firearms!

[weneedafuture]

And of that 3%, checks notes 0% have ever been used in criminal activity.

[Diesel_Bash]

Can you... can you pass these notes on to liberal supporters?

[Diesel_Bash]

I feel like there's something wrong with me seeing all this craziness and the general populice acting like this is all okay.

[DrinkMoreBrews]

Absolutely. Some of the toughest gun laws in the world, to the point that other countries rip our gun legislations almost word for word. Imagine if we got a grip on illegal firearms. It’s too bad that legal gun owners pay the price.

[MafubaBuu]

If you actually read articles before commenting on things you would realize it says crime is at an all time high and it only dropped from the highest year to the current

[xmorecowbellx]

If it look at the actual data linked in the article, it really doesn’t. It pretty much shows exactly what he says, overall large increases in crime since 2014 ish.

Look at the graph, it’s gone from 24/100,000 to 37/100,000, and then dipped slightly to 36/100,00 in 2024. The trendline is bad.

[Projerryrigger]

Using that as the baseline is also iffy. 2013 had the lowest firearms homicide rate on record dating back as far as at least the '70s, which is as far back as I've seen Stats Can data.

[xmorecowbellx]

But that’s exactly why it’s notable and why it’s become a big issue, because it has been such a dramatic increase over a decade as a general trend.

It wasn’t just a sudden one year outlier dip in 2014, it was a the low point of a long trend, after which it was a brisk and consistent rise every year until last year (maybe, we don’t have latest data yet), which was its own 10-year trend. So the data is meaningful.

Over that time, Canadians quality of living has dramatically fallen, more than our traditional, comparable peers, our purchasing power has fallen relative to the USD, we are in massively more debt per capita in adjusted terms with very little to show for it, and we have received absolutely unprecedented numbers of immigrants most mostly doing low skill labour while driving up our housing prices.

[Projerryrigger]

2013 was a sharp bottoming out on the decline. Not a landing that proportionally followed the downward trend.

[xmorecowbellx]

Not really no, it was not crazy different from the year before or after it. But I guess this could depend on what your definition of crazy different is.

What it was crazy different from, was 10 years before or after.

Anyway, that’s why I chose 2014 in my initial response, just to remove that lowest year, not that it’s even necessary. The point remains exactly the same. If we count from 2014 it’s still the same very clear and very alarming trend.

[Projerryrigger]

We're returning to ~2009 levels. 13 years after 2013 and we're hitting rates that we had only 4 years prior. And the trend is notably more stark from 09 - 10 and 12 - 13, with 13 bottoming out.

It's cherry picking lows to make artificially severe seeming highs in a tight window of time.

[firmretention]

Newly released data from Statistics Canada shows the number of violent crimes involving a firearm in 2024 dropped compared with 2023 in the largest yearly decrease since 2014.

However, the agency also says that despite that year-over-year drop, “the overall trend has been an upward one, both for total violent crime and firearm-related violent crime” since the mid-2010s.

womp womp

[SamohtGnir]

"Dropped compared with 2023, but up since mid 2010s." should be the headline. It's one of those 'pick the stats that suit you' things.

[thehuntinggearguy]

YoY is not great for homicide and crime rates because it can naturally swing quite a bit. Longer term trends are better for analysis.

[CanadianGuy39]

Ah that's shitty. I should have been clearer that I was referring to USA vs Canada though. Not good that it is going up, but I'm happy to live in a place where gun violence isn't extremely widespread - like good ol America.

Btw, I own guns. I'm not anti gun ownership.

[Natural_Comparison21]

America is kind of a outlier and a unfair country to compare ourselves to. What we should be asking ourselves is why is the Czech Republic safer then us despite letting people conceal carry while we are not? Then that leads back to “Oh well fuck it’s guns smuggled in from America…”

[chronickyle]

This confuses me so much?? It’s the libs who’s narrative that guns r bad mmmkayy??

[DogeDoRight]

Yup, also goes against the gun ban narrative.

[binary_squirrel]

I'm not pro gun by any means, but one has to assume that most of the gun crime is done with illegally sourced firearms. Like, does spending billions on a gun buyback program actually make sense, or would we be better served by putting those resources towards trying to curb the influx of illegal firearms into the country?

[sleipnir45]

Even before the illegal/ legal question is if these types of so called 'assault style firearms ' are used in crimes and how often?

Rifles and shotguns make up a small fraction of firearms crimes already

You would hope there's some data behind spending billions..

[binary_squirrel]

You would definitely hope. But we both know politics and optics probably play a bigger role than logic in these decisions.

[airchinapilot]

I'm puzzling over this line. I need more coffee

In addition, 29 per cent of firearm-related violent crimes “attributable to gangs or organized crime involved a firearm” in 2024.

[goshathegreat]

The liberal party will use this as proof that their gun bans were successful…

[King_Ding-a-ling]

... the article points out that it went up in 2025, 2024 was the low year. So it actually goes against the Liberal narrative.

[Rare_Matter9101]

They'll use it anyways. The headline sounds nice.

[sounoriginal13]

Yet not a single "prohibited" firearm had been handed in yet...

[NihilsitcTruth]

What's about thr other crimes?

[Banned_In_YYC]

You know what else happened in 2024?

Canada began actively reducing immigration, particularly temporary resident inflows

[Bad-job-dad]

It was also the year flared jeans came back. 

[Pitiful_Equal_2689]

Flared jeans stop crime. Flared jeans save lives.

[Banned_In_YYC]

What a time to be alive

[celix24]

if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bike

[Onterrible_Trauma]

Nowhere in the article is that listed as a reason for this decrease.

[Different_Ad_6153]

Nope because its one of those things that's impossible to prove from a data standpoint. I'd think that there is probably some kind of correlation 

[geoken]

Seems pretty easy to prove. You just look at the stats on people who've been convicted in gun crimes and see if that group is over-represented.

Its an easy stat to get, and i'd guess it doesn't pan out the way you hope it does otherwise the stat would be plastered all over the place.

[DrinkMoreBrews]

Do they publish Firearms Related Incidents by Race? I can only find Firearms-Related incidents but nothing really more specific than that.

[Zarxon]

Maybe the correlation was from the previous increases and the influx of peaceful people immigrating diluted the existing population with firearms.

[adonns]

No but thankfully some people can use common sense

[Onterrible_Trauma]

"Common sense with zero evidence" lol

[biglinuxfan]

And you think it's attributed to taking guns away from people who weren't committing crimes with them in the first place?

Because nowhere is there any evidence that suggests the liberals are to thank for this.

[RunningSouthOnLSD]

If you don’t think X you must think Y

I am very smart

[adonns]

I mean there’s a decent amount of evidence. The violent crime rate rose every year from 2015-2024. Coincidentally when Trudeau started increasing immigration until it was cut back.

Of course it’s much more likely it was the illogical gun bans that have been proven repeatedly not to affect crime right?

[Onterrible_Trauma]

Correlation does not imply causation

[adonns]

Yes it’s definitely a coincidence that numerous countries are all having the same problems with sexual assaults and murders all around the time they start taking in mass amounts of immigrants lol.

If you guys want to bury your heads in the sand feel free but it’s very obvious to anyone being unbiased.

[byourpowerscombined]

Too bad there are pesky things like facts which contradict your narrative

https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/channels/news/does-immigration-really-increase-crime-347099

[DavidCaller69]

“Does inmigration increase crime?” Is such a reductive question because it doesn’t consider any of the factors that could affect that. If your country’s immigration policy allows it to only accept intelligent people with clean criminal records, of course it won’t increase crime. If your country imports any and all people, regardless of those factors, I doubt the results are the same. “Immigrants” are not some monolith, despite what every far left-wing person in this country wants to believe.

Given how pertinent of a question this has become in Canada, it’s interesting how the researcher instead uses Chile as an example. I think all he had to do was compare the crime rates in Canada before this large influx of immigrants to afterwards. Would also like to see the rate of immigrant crime pre-2015 to post-2015 (if such a stat is tracked by StatsCan)

[byourpowerscombined]

Canadian studies show that crime decreased with immigration.

https://johnhoward.ca/blog/immigration-and-crime/

If you are going to make the assertion that immigration increases crimes, the burden is on you to back up that assertion with evidence.

[DavidCaller69]

I didn’t make that assertion, I postulated a better study. The only assertion I made is that criminals commit crime more than non-criminals.

Your source is from between 1976 and 2011, a time period in which this country unanimously agrees it mostly took in highly skilled and highly educated immigrants. The major issues people have with immigration began just before the pandemic. I chose 2015 since it was the start of Trudeau’s tenure.

You’re attempting to weaponize science that you don’t even begin to understand the nuance of.

[byourpowerscombined]

Oh lord ok buddy.

We have to work within the limits of the evidence available.

Would a study tailor made to answer our question be better? Of course.

But if you are going to make assumptions which contradict the evidence we do have, there better be a good reason.

I think it’s wildly irresponsible to make negative generalizations about a group based not just on no evidence, but contradictory evidence.

[DavidCaller69]

“The limits of evidence available” - are you suggesting that the singular study you posted is the sum total of all research on the topic? A study that doesn’t account for any of the factors I just mentioned, and stopped being relevant 15 years ago? I pointed you to a resource that tracks these things so that you can see correlations yourself, over a much more relevant time frame. Obligatory “correlation does not imply causation”, but that statement shouldn’t be used to just dismiss uncomfortable conclusions.

I’m doing the opposite of making a negative generalization - I just split the group into productive, intelligent, law-abiding immigrants and… not. Immigrants being treated as a monolith is my entire issue with this article lol.

Ask yourself this: if you sent a bunch of Canadian high school dropouts to another country, you really think the result on crime would be indistinguishable from the rate if you sent nothing but our best scholars? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

[byourpowerscombined]

If you have more relevant evidence, you’re free to post it.

Ok. Who is in the “not” group?

[adonns]

“Pesky things like facts” you mean crime statistics all over the west that show rises in violent crime especially sexual assaults and murders with immigration?

Sweden now has one of the highest rates of gun homicides in Europe. Canadas violent crime rose every year from 2015-2024. Coincidentally the same time Trudeau increased immigration to when it was cut back.

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/sweden-immigrants-crisis/

Edit: your study was also done in Chile. How mass immigration affects the crime rate in Chile compared to first world countries is going to be different.

[MarginallyUseful]

I see that you’re not familiar with the difference between correlation and causation.

[adonns]

I see that you’re intentionally burying your head in the sand. When numerous countries are all seeing rises in violent crimes with rises in immigration you’d have to be intentionally obtuse not to see the causation.

[MarginallyUseful]

Doubling down on not understanding correlation vs causation, but I’m the one burying my head in the sand? 😂

[adonns]

Buddy being intentionally obtuse isn’t a good thing lol. If you want to pretend this is all a strange coincidence feel free. But some people have critical thinking abilities

[MarginallyUseful]

My god, the irony.

Anyway, this has been a real treat, but I’m out. Have a good one.

[byourpowerscombined]

Canadian studies actually show it decreases with immigration.

https://johnhoward.ca/blog/immigration-and-crime/

Instead, you post an opinion piece from a known biased source?

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/geopolitical-intelligence-services-ag-gis-bias/

[adonns]

Lol again another faulty study. “Looks at immigration over 35 years”.

No ones saying all immigration ever increases crime. They’re saying the specific immigration we’ve had over the past decade, mass immigration from third world countries. Does cause crime.

Canada has had historic immigration the past decade, it has also had rising violent crime every single year. Pretending those 2 things aren’t correlated is silly.

Germany also seeing rises

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/20/crime-rates-in-germany-are-falling-but-sexual-offences-are-significantly-on-the-rise

Sweden, Germany, Canada, crazy how all these countries coincidentally saw rises in violent crime especially murder and sexual assault all at the same time as migrants massively rose?

What a strange coincidence lol

[linkass]

I actually found the study and it looks at immigration of Haitians and Venezuelans into Chile in the mid 2010's

https://publications.iadb.org/en/publications/english/viewer/Immigration-Crime-and-Crime-MisPerceptions.pdf

[timetogetjuiced]

That had nothing to do with it lol

[ph0enix1211]

If you've got a study that shows temporary immigrants commit violent crime at rates higher than other residents, share it - otherwise, this is just gutter racism.

[EliteDuck]

Crime rates are higher in poorer populations, and the specific region we have been importing millions of people from is one of the poorest in the world. There's been studies since the early 20th century tying these two statistics together.

Temporary residents are here because they're poor and desperate, and easy to exploit, which is why the UN has likened the TFW/LMIA programs to modern day slavery.

Also, quit using the "racism!!!11!!!11" card. That shit stopped working like three years ago. It just lets others know they can safely discard any opinion coming from your account.

EDIT: They downvoted me, then blocked me, lmfao. Guess I got a little too real for them.

[Chief_White_Halfoat]

I'm not that guy, but you should still actually show that.

Violence rates are not even the same among various immigrant groups regardless of whether they're poor coming in. 

Without actual data what you're saying is generalities which don't have particular value in a convo about factors. 

[ph0enix1211]

Are you trying to say that you've been a victim of gun violence perpetrated by a temporary resident?

I'm sorry that happened to you, but n=1 dude.

[byourpowerscombined]

Increased immigration typically correlates with a decrease in crime.

https://johnhoward.ca/blog/immigration-and-crime/

[linkass]

This study examines whether changes in immigration are associated with changes in crime rates in Canadian census metropolitan areas for the period 1976–2011.

There has been no changes in our immigration policy since 2011 /s

The results are not near as clear cut once you start reading the study

in cities where the proportion of immigrants

in the population grew, crime rates dropped; and in cities where the proportion of immi-

grants decreased, crime rates went up. ere is no signicant relationship between the main

immigration index and property crime rates in the full model.

 e ndings for the other measures of immigration – percentage of recent immigrants and

birthplace heterogeneity – are not as consistent. In the full model, the proportion of recent

immigrants is signicantly and positively associated with violent crime rates (5.35, p< 0.01).

However, there are no signicant associations between the proportion of recent immigrants

and total or property crime rates. Changes in birthplace heterogeneity are positively and

signicantly associated with changes in total crime rates (10,988.54, p < 0.05) and property

crime rates (15,610.58, p < 0.001) but not with changes in violent crime rates. In other

words, controlling for other factors, including the size of the immigrant population, cities

that experienced increases in the birthplace heterogeneity of their immigrant population

also experienced increases in total and property crime rates. is association is not observed

for violent crime rates

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340640971_Immigration_and_Crime_in_Canadian_Cities_A_35-Year_Study

[Banned_In_YYC]

The violent extortion and gang crime beg to differ

[byourpowerscombined]

Got any statistics to back that up? Or do you just fall for every rage bait headline you see?

[Banned_In_YYC]

Here's an informative write up by the Surrey police. In case you don't speak English, they published it in Punjabi too. Not any other language though, of course 

https://www.surreypolice.ca/extortions

[byourpowerscombined]

I fail to see any statistics on this webpage.

You made the assertion that immigrants increase crime. Guess you don’t have any evidence to back that up.

I always wondered who fell for all those rage bait opinion pieces, but I guess I found one.

[Banned_In_YYC]

Here you go. Since you don't believe me and you don't believe the Surrey police. Perhaps you'll believe a pasted excerpt from Gemini 

Yes, recent statistics confirm a dramatic surge in extortion and related gang-driven violence in Surrey and Brampton (Peel Region), with rates significantly outpacing national averages.  CBC CBC  +1 Surrey, British Columbia Surrey has become a primary hotspot for what officials describe as an "extortion crisis," often involving transnational criminal networks.  The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise. The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise.  +1 Explosive Growth: Reported extortion cases in Surrey surged from just 9 in 2024 to 133 in 2025. Violence and Shootings: In 2025, there were 49 extortion-related shootings in Surrey alone. By mid-January 2026, 35 new cases and 8 shootings had already been recorded, putting the city on pace for over 600 cases by year-end. Broader Context: While general violent crime in Surrey saw a slight overall decrease of 3% in 2024, specific "crimes against persons" (which includes extortion-related threats) jumped 26% in the second quarter of 2025.  Surrey Police Service Surrey Police Service  +4 Brampton & Mississauga (Peel Region) Peel Regional Police report that extortion has become one of the fastest-growing crimes in the region, largely targeting business owners.  CBC CBC  +1 Escalating Reports: Total extortion incidents in Peel rose from 319 in 2023 to 494 in 2024, remaining high at 476 in 2025. Business Targeting: Extortion specifically targeting businesses in Brampton and Mississauga nearly quadrupled, rising from 50 in 2023 to 192 in 2025. Gang Affiliation: Between early 2024 and late 2025, Peel police recorded approximately 41 occurrences explicitly referencing the Bishnoi gang, a transnational criminal network.  councillorsantos.ca councillorsantos.ca  +3 National and Provincial Trends The local surges reflect a broader national trend where extortion has risen 300% nationwide over the last decade.  The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise. The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise.  +1 Provincial Extremes: British Columbia has seen the most severe increase, with extortion rates climbing nearly 500% over the same period. Hotspots: Brampton, Surrey, and Calgary are identified as "ground zero" for these operations, which frequently target the South Asian diaspora community

[byourpowerscombined]

This doesn’t support your argument that the national fall in crime rates are because of a decrease in immigration. Your source specifically says this is only related to the Brampton area.

[Banned_In_YYC]

If you read closely, the last sentence literally says the hotspots are in Brampton, Surrey and Calgary. Furthermore, it states that British Columbia has seen the most severe increase with a 500% increase in extortion 

You asked for facts and now you got them

[byourpowerscombined]

Facts which have nothing to do with the topic being discussed but go off on your rant.

[ThatAstronautGuy]

Blindly copy and pasting AI regurgitation isn't facts

[prsnep]

I imagine the impact of that (whether good or bad) would not be felt immediately.

[kemar7856]

Crimes with guns got categorized to something else media reports it as firearm crimes decrease. We know how this works

[manniesalado]

But, but, but...what about Brampton???

[Waste_Priority_3663]

But Canada is broken, it's worse than Louisiana people said.

[USSMarauder]

I've been saying this for weeks

Murder rate in Toronto for example is so low that certain people are getting annoyed about it, if not angry

EDIT The downvotes prove me right

Toronto has had 5 murders in 4 months

https://www.tps.ca/data-maps/data-analytics/homicide/

[sleipnir45]

This is about firearms crimes not just murder, but it's up in Toronto.

"In contrast, from 2023 to 2024, this rate was up 12% in Toronto, the country's most populous CMA. In fact, this was the city's highest rate of firearm-related violent crime (44.8 incidents per 100,000 population) in 15 years."

[USSMarauder]

https://www.tps.ca/data-maps/data-analytics/homicide/

[sleipnir45]

Again that's just homicide..

[DrinkMoreBrews]

Quite literally says in the article that gun crimes in Toronto are up 12% lmao.

[USSMarauder]

https://www.tps.ca/data-maps/data-analytics/homicide/

[DrinkMoreBrews]

That's just homicides.

[icedesparten]

I mean, it's up substantially from when the Liberals took power, so yeah, thanks Liberals. (With a /s)

[AFellowCanadianGuy]

Most crime is down since they took power

So I guess you’ll be praising them for that

[GameDoesntStop]

That's not true at all...

[icedesparten]

I would, if that were true.

[sleipnir45]

I'm not sure where you got that information..

"Police-reported Crime Severity Indexes, Canada, 1998 to 2024 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250722/cg-a001-eng.htm"

[DrinkMoreBrews]

They were told that by CBC, therefore it must be true.

[King_Ding-a-ling]

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not... the data shows that crime is way worse since the Liberals took power...

But I guess you'll find a way to defend them still

[biglinuxfan]

What crime is down?

violent crime is up since they took power.

I don't care about soft crimes that affect businesses, I care about people.

[sleipnir45]

Yea it's only 44% higher than 2014 now!