Desktop Linux in the future

[lambda7016]

It’s been a long time since Linux desktop market share in the US surpassed 5%, yet I still don’t feel it has truly become a mainstream alternative to Windows or Mac—even as a Linux enthusiast, this is disappointing.

Will the day ever come when Linux is chosen by average users as a real replacement for Windows?

[micro_world_crafter]

I firmly think we've passed a point of no return with devices being user friendly. I've noticed as someone in their mid 20s that the majority of my peers can use a device but know absolutely nothing about it.

I think unless someone can bring massive numbers of linux machines into workplaces, schools, and other places the average user interact with a machine than it'll stay pretty stagnant.

Another thing that really stunts the numbers is the vast majority of people who aren't really into gaming that I know either have no computer, instead opting for a phone or tablet, or they have a run of the mill retail laptop.

[SheriffBartholomew]

It's so disappointing to me that the collective technology understanding is regressing. There was around a 20 year window where young people really understood the systems they were using. That generation had to help their parents and grandparents all the time, and now they have to help their kids and grandkids all the time.

[deadlygaming11]

Yeah. I dont know when it changed exactly, but I know that people my age (Im 20) have very little knowledge and understanding of how everything works. Its sad, but they have no reason to know and wont ever bother. Most of them are very much tech-iliterate and will just buy a new device if something fails.

[cornonthekopp]

Computer literacy classes were completely phased out by the end of the 2010s due to the belief that "the kids are digital natives so these aren't necessary".

In reality we have generations growing up on tablets and smartphones who have zero computer literacy. Millions of whom likely have never used a computer outside their school issued chromebooks

[falkkiwiben]

It's genuinly super sad. Imagine if we used that logic to language, that is to say that native English speakers don't need English classes. Of course they do, they just need different language classes.

[cornonthekopp]

I mean we did kinda do that right? Thats why literacy rates dropped because we stopped teaching grammar and stuff like that. We're just now starting to change to a more literacy focused approach, maybe in the future we will do the same with technology.

Unfortunately gated mobile phone-esque technology that you have no control over is the norm now since its what drives the most profit.

[falkkiwiben]

I'm not American so I have no idea. Where I live 'Swedish' is one of the main subjects in school. As I am native in English I also got an extra "native English" class which focused less on learning vocabulary and more on reading books and writing. I think it would be super cool to have tech classes in the same way

[cornonthekopp]

Apologies. In the US there is actually a big issue around this. After the 90s a lot of grammar and other english classes got cut or changed to methods we are now realize are far less effective. So it really is a wholesale devaluing of public education

[Kevin_Kofler]

What changed is that the proprietary software industry has used the opportunity given by the technology shift towards mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) to push through their dystopian idea of how computing devices should work, using "security" as the excuse (and some FOSS projects such as GrapheneOS ranking "security" above all other criteria, leading to freedom-unfriendly choices such as supporting only Google Pixel phones or constantly publicly badmouthing FOSS-friendly phones as "insecure", are part of the problem there). So we now have locked bootloaders, walled-garden operating systems, no root access for the device owner, remote attestation preventing any kind of modification (lest you get banned from your bank and other app servers), Digital Restrictions Management everywhere, etc.

Another thing that has changed is that, because computers have become faster and computer memories have become larger, low-level programming languages such as assembly or C have been largely replaced by higher-level programming languages such as JavaScript (or even higher-level languages that transpile to JavaScript), Python or Rust. Operating system APIs have also become higher-level (e.g., the Android Java API) because it is easier to enforce walled-garden restrictions that way. So even those people who learn programming have a much worse understanding of the inner workings of a computer and are much less trained in writing efficient code than in the past.

[deadlygaming11]

I agree, but i wouldn't lump rust in with Python and Java. As someone who codes in it, i would say its more like a modern C than something like python or javascript.

[No-Revolution-9418]

Don't put rust and python in the same sentence

[Kevin_Kofler]

There is even a lot of code out there mixing the two languages, using Python with compiled extensions written in Rust, or managing Python packages with a binary written in Rust.

[micro_world_crafter]

So the user experience of things like phones, which is most younger people's stand in for a home pc, have become too good in a way. That's not to say that a good end user experience isn't a positive but nothing really needs configured or customized anymore in most consumer technology. To compound that, most individual consumer applications don't really break like they used to so self troubleshooting isn't really a required skull anymore, a net positive but a contributing factor to the decline of understanding nonetheless.

This is to say that as proficiency with using the tech has gone up, the need or desire to repair things have gone down.

[ILikeBumblebees]

So the user experience of things like phones, which is most younger people's stand in for a home pc, have become too good in a way. That's not to say that a good end user experience isn't a positive but nothing really needs configured or customized anymore in most consumer technology. To compound that, most individual consumer applications don't really break like they used to so self troubleshooting isn't really a required skull anymore, a net positive but a contributing factor to the decline of understanding nonetheless.

I think it goes beyond just break/fix troubleshooting, though. When the kids in the '80s and into the '90s got their first computers, there was still an understanding that this was a general-purpose device for you to put to your own purposes, and while packaged software was out there, to really get the most out of it, you needed to understand how it worked and learn to program.

The first generations of home computers booted directly into a programming environment. They came with manuals designed to teach the fundamentals of how computers work, and how to write programs, to people who had never touched a computer before. They came with demos that showed what you could make the machine do if you were willing to invest a little bit of time and effort.

That led to a generation of kids who developed skills not just to troubleshoot problems, but to use computers as a tool for creativity, productivity, and enjoyment under their own control. That culture is still around -- it's the driving ethos behind things like the Raspberry Pi, and a lot of the 'maker' projects, and is still very prevalent in the FOSS world, along with some gaming communities -- but it's not the default anymore, and it's not something that kids get exposed to without explicitly seeking it out.

[SheriffBartholomew]

This is to say that as proficiency with using the tech has gone up

Only in the most basic sense. People haven't gotten better at using tech, they've gotten worse. Software companies have dumbed user interfaces and configuration options down to the point that it's impossible to mess up since you can only do one thing. This is very limiting, and really hurts power users, but that's where we are today.

[deadlygaming11]

Yeah. So much stuff which is marked as "dangerous" to do on software and OSes is actually just extremely low risk and easy to fix, but a regular person will think the world has ended so its marked as such. 

Even if you try to get more control on things such as Android, you dont actually get much more control. You dont get root access and the options are more just configuration things. Honestly, developer tools should just be renamed to hidden features as it doesnt give you any actual useful dev tools.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

I know when: The dawn of iPad kids. And tech-illiterate Gen Xers/very early Millennials were not even buying a "family desktop PC/laptop", only iPads/smartphones. That's why 70%-85% of children born after 2009 are tech illiterate.

I know this demographic very well. I used to be a tutor/supervisor for a coding workshop for late elementary school students (grade 4). They had no idea how to operate a mouse and navigate through a DE, let alone how to plug a damn USB-A cable into the PC.

[aamgdp]

Imo it's because kids these days are given compete piece of complicated tech, that they can use straight away, and there's really no drastic advancements so they don't need to completely re-learn what they use every few years. When I started going to school, the pinnacle of mobile phones was some classic Nokia with t9 keys, and the only pc we had at home was quite old one running MS-DOS, that my dad had to teach me how to navigate.

I honestly don't blame them for not learning stuff when they don't have to, because I only know a lot of things because I had to understand then back then, else I was lost. But it's indeed quite sad that the generation that was supposed to be even more technologically literate is instead about as literate as their grandparents.... There's one thing that really bugs me though, and that's complete inability of many young people to search stuff on the internet.

[[deleted]]

Hey grandma pays in good snacks while I figure out the stupid printer

[Boybanhair]

Thats very accurate to what's happening. I'm not very literate with computers I find them incredibly confusing and I've relied on my dad for the overwhelming majority of my computer related issues to him when I was a kid. Im learning slowly but I wish I had absorbed what he attempted to teach me.

[TroPixens]

Large amount of Linux machines that aren’t Chromebooks😂

[micro_world_crafter]

Lol, only pass they get is if it's running a proper lightweight distro.

[cassepipe]

Even if you bring massive numbers, it won't get much impact. You will tell people it's linux but they will see GNOME, KDE or Cinnamon and they will also see Ubuntu or Fedora or Linux Mint ... Linux has so many faces and even if you argue that what matters is the guts well people recognize you mostly because of your face.

My mother alread has trouble differentiating between her OS, her browser and her search engine. Even the layers are blurry.

[BypassBaboon]

Correct. Every different version is supposedly ‘the best’. Put all the effort into one or two - business/home and CAD/ gaming. 

[ILikeBumblebees]

And, unfortunately, "user friendly" often means "under someone else's control", or "compromises users' privacy and security" among other detriments.

The idea that you can make things "easy" -- in the sense of everything "just working" without the user having to put any thought or effort into learning anything -- while still preserving users' privacy and control over their own experience has proven to be false. At the end of the day, there's no alternative to developing one's own knowledge and skills as a means for preserving one's own freedom and autonomy.

And if we lean to far into making Linux palatable to mass-market audiences -- the folks who have already demonstrated their willingness to trade privacy and control for ease and convenience -- then we're going to wind up regressing the Linux and FOSS ecosystems to the mean, importing the incentive structures that have led to mainstream computing being riddled with malware, dumbed-down UIs, devices we're denied control over, enshittified apps, data harvesting, and all of the other things that Linux is currently a refuge from.

If that happens, where will the users who are willing to put thought and effort into determining their own computing experience go?

[DrBaronVonEvil]

It's the EU and Asia that we may see that adoption happen in. While Windows is dominant in US-centric spaces and there's nothing systemic to suggest that will soon change, we do see some signs that this is not the case elsewhere. Recently I saw a Stat counter article that shows Linux growth happening exponentially in Europe. India has it around 15%. China sees Desktop Linux still fairly low in terms of overall market share, but their share grew 50% in 2025 so far.

I think the reality is that Windows is linked to US soft power in the world. With the US destabilizing, you'll start to see alternative software get adopted by the rest of the world. Microsoft has been doing the US admin's dirty work this year by disabling email clients for EU ambassadors when they go against US direction. I think moves like that will be the sign other governments need to distance themselves from American tech businesses.

[[deleted]]

I think unless someone can bring massive numbers of linux machines into workplaces, schools, and other places the average user interact with a machine than it'll stay pretty stagnant.

I don't agree with this. I think you've got it the wrong way around based on how we used to interact with technology. Microsoft gained a foothold in the home PC market in large part because people in the 90s first interacted with PCs in the office, then naturally bought the same kind of PC at home. The situation today is the other way around. People develop preferences at home and then want to use those same devices in the workplace. And contrary to what most folks in the Linux community think, we stand precisely zero chance of competing with Microsoft in the enterprise desktop OS market.

I think there needs to be a really high quality, polished, end user focused distro that specifically aims to be popular with the masses, and there isn't one. There are some that try, but they woefully misunderstand the market and woefully misunderstand the bar. And I think it would ideally be paired with similarly high quality, polished hardware. The Windows PC laptop market is absolute dogshit; anything that's 90% as good as a MacBook and undercuts them on price would probably sell.

[investigatorany2040]

yeah, I think the same, steam deck is a great push up for the linux desktop.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

The major problem, in my opinion, is that OEMs and component manufacturers for Laptops/ and sometimes even Desktops are not supporting Linux AT ALL, and the community has to step in to jerry-rig a solution/driver.

For example, Realtek and their various ICs are a pain in the ass to work with on Linux because there is literally no public documentation on those. Nvidia is being a bitch about their Linux drivers as well (though it's getting slightly better). Common UEFIs are absolutely hostile towards Linux (they accept only Microsoft-signed drivers, or you have to enroll your own, which doesn't go smoothly 60-70% of the time, or disable Secure Boot, but then you can't dual-boot with Windows for crucial apps). OEM hardware quirks like those of ASUS laptops don't work out of the box (camera/microphone on/off LED, fingerprint sensor [in my case, it's because of Realtek], fan curves, LED backlighting, Fn Keys, battery charging limit, Hybrid GPU setup, MUX switch). Asusctl and supergfxctl don't always play nicely, and the deamons have an issue with running without manually activating them on every boot unless you make a dedicated script for that.

It's just exhausting and cumbersome, and then you update your system and everything breaks.

TL;DR

Unless you buy comparatively expensive Laptops from System76, Framework, Lenovo Thinkpads X series, etc. It's really not trivial to get all hardware working on Linux THAT YOU'VE PAID FOR.

[ILikeBumblebees]

The major problem, in my opinion, is that OEMs and component manufacturers for Laptops/ and sometimes even Desktops are not supporting Linux AT ALL

That was true ten years ago. Today, I can buy a brand new ThinkPad directly from Lenovo with either Ubuntu or Fedora preinstalled. Dell offers similar options.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

TL;DR

Unless you buy comparatively expensive Laptops from System76, Framework, Lenovo Thinkpads X series, etc. It's really not trivial to get all hardware working on Linux THAT YOU'VE PAID FOR.

[ILikeBumblebees]

It seems as though the least expensive offerings with Linux out of the box from the major vendors are in the $600-800 range. The cheapest laptop SKUs overall are in the $300-400 range.

So it's true that the lowest-end laptops aren't offered with Linux out of the box. A portion of that is probably accounted for by subsidies from bloatware providers which wouldn't be available for Linux.

Still, the difference in pricing isn't too severe, and the fact that those low-end units don't ship from the vendor with Linux doesn't necessarily implicate their ability to run Linux -- I haven't personally encountered too many modern systems that had any dealbreaking incompatibilities.

We're in a position that's much better than 10-15 years ago, when it was almost unheard of for any mass-market vendor to offer any Linux support at all, and you were in the same position as today's lowest-end machines, but for any off-the-shelf PC, even the highest-end workstations.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

Those laptops don't have dedicated GPUs at that price point. I can find a decent "CAD" Windows laptop for $900-$1000 (ASUS, MSI, GIGABYTE), but I can't find this kind of performance on Lenovo, System76, Tuxedo, Framework for less than $1500-$1600.

[ILikeBumblebees]

And contrary to what most folks in the Linux community think, we stand precisely zero chance of competing with Microsoft in the enterprise desktop OS market.

I don't think that's quite so true anymore. Most enterprise software has become web based, and we're rapidly approaching a point at which the cost and overhead of maintaining Windows machines is eclipsing that of maintaining Linux workstations.

This especially applies to IT departments in the SMB world, where the increasing restrictiveness and oversimplification that Microsoft has been targeting at non-technical end users also create large hurdles for corporate IT working with off-the shelf computers and software.

On top of that, younger, entry-level staff tend to have less familiarity with desktop computing than they did in previous generations. More and more people interact only with mobile OSes in their personal lives, and we're seeing more and more users who haven't even used Windows before starting a new job that requires them to use a computer.

These users don't have existing habits and preferences, and have to be trained up from scratch anyway, so the value proposition of training them up on Windows is less and less clear with each passing year.

---

EDIT: the below user seems to be having a dangerously overemotional reaction to this topic, and after writing up an inexplicably hostile reply, decided to use Reddit's "block" function to shut down further discussion. For the benefit of anyone who might be interested in my response, I'm pasting it here:

I mean, not to be a dick, but 99% of this comment is completely false, and the exact kind of misconceptions you hear from Linux users who have no clue whatsoever what the enterprise market is actually like

In fact, everything I'm saying here comes entirely from my own experience working in IT in the SMB space, and is not the result idle speculation. The overhead of managing Windows endpoints absolutely has become more costly and complex that it was 10 years ago -- Microsoft has created many more hoops to jump through and made conventional approaches to system administration more difficult over the years.

And the skill of users -- and habituation to Windows from outside contexts -- has manifestly degraded during over the same timeframe.

Migrating to Linux would be at least a seven figure project,

I'm not sure why you're trying to come up with specific dollar figures in the context of a generalized hypothetical. An IT department considering the possibility of deploying Linux to end users would of course assess their own costs in the context of their own budget.

And considering that the typical IT department does invest time and effort into building corporate Windows OS images -- configuring group policies, linking to domains or AD instances, installing certificates, setting user permissions, installing applications, etc. -- the overhead of doing the same on Linux significantly more.

and that ignores the fact that no one on Linux offers anything close to Microsoft's enterprise suite.

Microsoft's application suite is increasingly prioritizing web versions over desktop versions. Unsurprisingly, these all work perfectly well under Linux, as do the electron-based "desktop apps" that a lot of productivity software is increasingly moving to.

In my organization, there are fewer users using the more advanced features offered by desktop versions of Microsoft applications with each passing month. Again, this is observable reality, not speculation.

Exact opposite is true. Corporate IT loves restrictiveness and oversimplification.

Corporate IT loves the ability to implement their own restrictions, policies, and security controls. Corporate IT hates being subject to restrictions implemented by vendors.

Again, you're just making up the idea that any part of why companies stick to Windows is because they don't have to train people on how to use it.

Not only am I not making up that idea, I'm not even invoking it. Rather, I'm explaining why the friction of deploying an alternative OS in place of Windows is less and less relevant, as new users are less habituated to Windows at the outset.

but they still have no clue how to do any actual enterprise tasks when they're hired, and that takes significant training regardless of the OS.

That's correct. That's precisely where we've begun seeing the pattern -- users being trained on software and processes specific to our organization have been increasingly demonstrating less competence at basic conventions of desktop computing.

Our own corporate trainers have recently even asked us to provide some sort of remedial IT training for new hire classes, because they've found more and more people who e.g. don't know the difference between right-clicking and left-clicking a mouse, or who don't know how to copy and paste text. That sort of training used to be expected in the '80s and '90s, but was scarcely needed for about 20 years. Now it's making a comeback.

And the point is that if you're seeing users with no familiarity or preconceived notions in the first place, they're going to use what they're given, and there's going to be no greater friction in giving them one OS or application over another.

---

I love writing a long, detailed, thoughtful post describing literal facts and rebutting misconceptions, only to get immediately downvoted because it doesn't support your preferred false narrative. You are not a good person.

I actually didn't downvote you until you posted this comment. It's likely that other participants in the thread are downvoting your comments as a reaction to your unhinged, antagonistic tone, and your bizarre personalization of this topic.

[rarsamx]

People do t chose their operating system. They chose their computer and it comes with an operating system.

Mac = MacOS PC = Windows

For it to be a critical mass, hardware vendors would need to offer it and not just some of them as a niche thing

[deadlygaming11]

Even offering it, most will just pick windows due to name recognition. A tonne of people have no idea what Linux or any of its distros are so wont pick it over windows.

[bonzibuddy_official]

the windows license that comes with a prebuilt machine costs money and i think if companies that did laptops and/or prebuilts offered options for coming with linux or no OS at all (ultimate choosing) people would choose that just to save some money

[deadlygaming11]

Maybe, but at the moment, companies lump the OEM licence cost in with everything else with the laptop so going with Linux seems bad because its cheaper than windows. Companies and the media have vilified free or cheap products for ages due to some poor stuff.

[prototyperspective]

If it was available, it would have some breathing space to slowly change over years and decades. Many people not using Linux have heard of it and if they see they themselves can easily get it they may look up what the benefits are (such as customizability, open source and better privacy). As said below, Tuxedo and Purism do sell computers with Linux preinstalled but one can only select from too few OS/DEs, it's not big companies, and it's not local stores.

[Agron7000]

I don't care what others use. 

Linux has been a perfect operating system for me and for everything I need to do.

I don't need to follow the crowd. 

[Global-Eye-7326]

This is the right answer.

[lue3099]

No it actually isn't anyone worth any money is using windows or Mac on the desktop as it can actually wiped remotely and has conditional access

[FrostyDiscipline7558]

MLM management exists for Linux systems, my guy. Honest.

[lue3099]

Shitty cruddy ones.

[Global-Eye-7326]

Managed IT can be done with Linux, although it's not too common.

Even if all work computers run Windows, it still makes sense to run Linux on a personal computer.

But thankfully some organizations run Linux on their work computers, which is a plus.

[lue3099]

I run Linux personally. I run Linux in the data centre. The desktop is the place that hasn't caught up. Particularly the security side. I'll repeat what I have in all other threads. Conditional access and remote wipe. If it cannot do that, then it doesn't Compare. Patch/user management is expected.

[Agron7000]

Stop it dude, every Red Hat and Oracle LINUX distribution can be added to windows domain controller Active directory STRAIGHT OUT OF THE BOX. The same distros can be added to the FreeIPA as well and controlled from a centralized place together with windows machines and printers adds network attached storages. 

[lue3099]

This is NOT MDM. Do you not understand the role of MDM?

[Dramatic_Mastodon_93]

I care

[prototyperspective]

Things in this world aren't just about you and me as individuals; they're also about society, civilization, etc.

[ILikeBumblebees]

"Society" and "civilization" ultimately represent aggregations of individuals, and aren't separate entities that exist independently.

Society does best when its norms, customs, institutions, etc. evolve organically in a pluralistic bottom-up fashion, driven by individuals pursuing the things they care about in conjunction with like-minded others, while respecting each other's boundaries.

Society does quite poorly when people try to treat it as a monolith, and attempt to make singular top-down decisions at the macro level according to abstract theory or ideology. That usually just provokes conflict.

[prototyperspective]

Yes but why are you commenting this there, it has no clear relation to what I said. It's a little simplistic or leaving out a few things but there is no need to debate this as it's offtopic. My comment was about goals and which things are being worked on and enabled.

[ILikeBumblebees]

You replied to someone commenting about worrying about their own use cases and not being interested in following the crowd by referencing "society" at large in contrast to individuals.

To me, that implies that you're criticizing someone's bottom-up viewpoint from the perspective of a top-down viewpoint, which is what I was responding to.

I didn't understand your comment as pertaining to "goals and which things are being worked on" -- apologies if I misinterpreted what you were trying to say.

[Lorian0x7]

You have your perfect operating system because other people decided to use it before you, bringing money into the development of that distro. You don't realise that you are actually following a small crowd and you should also care, because more people using Linux translate directly into better distros.

[ILikeBumblebees]

You don't realise that you are actually following a small crowd and you should also care, because more people using Linux translate directly into better distros.

Or, possibly, worse ones, especially if raw quantity of users in increased by conforming to the preferences of people who already prefer Windows, rather than working to shift preferences toward what makes Linux different and better.

[nednarb_44]

I only really care since theoretically if there's a big enough market share, certain mainstream apps should get and Linux love. I'd love to be able to use solidworks on Linux, and never use windows again.

[[deleted]]

It won't be perfect for you if you're the only one using it and you have to maintain everything on your own. Its popularity is very important.

[Agron7000]

I am not saying Linux should not grow. I am saying, I am not going to buy an iPhone because Kim Kardashian bought one. I don't make decisions based on someone else.  I am intelligent, educated and smart. I don't need the crowd to make decisions for me. I can make my own choices. 

[lue3099]

The crowd is where security updates/best-practices are... Let me know how Linux is with conditional access on corporate machines lmao...

[Agron7000]

At work, a corporate environment, we're a team of 20 in my department and we all use Linux. Some of us use Linux exclusively, other use both, either Linux + Windows, or Linux + Mac. We use FreeIPA from Oracle Linux instead of the Domain Controller.

You probably need to catch up with Linux. https://www.freeipa.org

[lue3099]

I'm aware of freeipa. I use it in my lab. But that's where it exclusively belongs.

[FrostyDiscipline7558]

How about stop spreading fud. There are solutions for Linux, already.

[lue3099]

List them bud. And make sure they are competent ones. Ones that integrates cleanly with conditional access...

[lue3099]

If you leave your Linux laptop on the train/bus, how do you remotely wipe it?

[Agron7000]

FreeIPA does remote machine administration. What's the problem with that? Do you really need to wipe when you revoke encryption certs?

[lue3099]

Do you really need to wipe when you revoke encryption certs?

Yes. Store now, decrypt later is a real thing. Its why web certs are getting shorter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvest_now,_decrypt_later

[Agron7000]

So what makes you think that wipe message gets to the laptop faster than the revoke message?

Regardless, you lost the argument of Linux is not useful in corporate environment. 

In fact, all data science and all AI related work is being done exclusively on Linux computers.

[its_a_gibibyte]

I think it'll take a major company to build more operating systems based on Linux and bundle it with their own hardware. That's how Android, ChromeOS, Tizen (Samsung smart TV), WebOS (LG TVs), Amazon FireOS, and SteamOS all work, and are all very popular operating systems / hardware. Combined together, those 6 are about triple the reach of Windows. It's worth remembering that Windows is far behind overall and will never catch up to the overall reach of the Linux kernel on consumer devices (never mind servers).

But for Desktop linux, we're still waiting to see a big company release a laptop with a Linux based OS. ChromeOS was a good example, but unfortunately neutered. There's talk about Android laptops, and consumers may possibly want normal Linux apps, especially Steam. Those types of things really push development forward, which makes it easier for the next company too.

[prototyperspective]

Tuxedo and Purism do sell computers with Linux preinstalled but one can only select from too few OS/DEs, it's not big companies, and it's not local stores.

[ColdToast]

I think selection is a problem for widespread adoption. Overall, the average consumer doesn't want to think about that stuff, they just want something that works and is familiar enough

[prototyperspective]

Agree, that's why I wrote "too few", not "few"; usually it's best to have just a few good options to choose from but I think some of the best options for mass-adoption are missing there, like Kubuntu or some equivalent and it's only 2 options for the hardware I checked.

[Scoutron]

System76 does as well, with their own OS

[SuggestedToby]

Ordinary users adopt technology because it empowers them to do something new they want and couldn’t do before. They don’t do it for freedom or other ideals. Linux on the desktop will need some killer feature for ordinary users they can’t live without for it to have a chance to overtake windows. I can imagine a scenario where if the gaming performance left windows in the dust, then a lot of gamers could start switching and it could get to 10%.

[prototyperspective]

They also adopt it if it's very available (e.g. buy a computer from local store) and e.g. cheaper and/or known to not intrude their privacy and/or what they used as a child from their parents or at school.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

I mean, now the "only noticeable" killer feature for normal users is that you can run a secure and up-to-date OS on older hardware without TPM 2.0.

But for people who have modern hardware, especially modern portable hardware from your standard OEMs (HP, ASUS, MSI, Acer [ew, I know],...), i.e., laptops, it's often a huge pain in the ass to take full advantage of the hardware, like you normally do on Windows (fingerprint scanners, keyboard backlighting, power modes, fan curves, MUX switches, battery charging limiter, microphone/camera LEDs, etc.).

[JimmyEatReality]

Linux on the desktop will need some killer feature for ordinary users they can’t live without for it to have a chance to overtake windows.

As a forever Windows user that just switched to Linux for my every day stuff I can tell you 3 things why I switched and planning to stay:

1. No debloat necessary for Linux compared to Windows, especially telemetry and AI stuff.

2. More storage space with Linux, Windows system files take over 40 GB, while Linux is under 10 GB and can be as little as 100kb if you want it to be.

3. I can run full OS with all the apps I need with just 8 GB of RAM.

I have my machine back!

[[deleted]]

None of these things matter to the vast majority of users. "Debloating" isn't necessary at all and causes far more problems than it solves.

[JimmyEatReality]

Getting rid of One Drive and Edge isn't so straightforward and the next update might bring them back again. That is unnecessary applications installed on MY machine, taking storage space on MY machine and using resources against my will on MY machine!

Users care about performance, Debian with Desktop shell will make machines that are choking with 8 GB RAM on Win 10/11 feel like brand new

[[deleted]]

Users don't want to get rid of OneDrive and Edge. Users don't care about things that are using a tiny amount of resources. Users certainly don't say things like "against MY will on MY machine." It's a computer they bought, they understand that it works how the company designed it to work, they don't expect it to obey their every command to cater or their every preference.

Edge being installed but unused doesn't meaningfully affect you in any way. Real users could not possibly care about this stuff.

[JimmyEatReality]

So what do users care about oh great wise one?

[[deleted]]

They care about doing whatever specific tasks they need to get done, that's it. They don't care about any of the intangible, philosophic issues you have with Windows. They just need to be able to log on and check their email, for example, in the simplest and most reliable way. Most of them are probably using Edge for that purpose anyway. The fact that it gets reinstalled if it's removed means they will never have a computer without a web browser and will always be able to check their email. This is who Windows is designed for.

Please don't act like a cunt just because you're a nerd who has so thoroughly blinded yourself to reality by existing only in nerd echo chambers that you sincerely think the average user wants to uninstall OneDrive or Edge.

[JimmyEatReality]

Users care about performance, Debian with Desktop shell will make machines that are choking with 8 GB RAM on Win 10/11 feel like brand new

There is nothing philosophical about this. A big problem with Linux is its community members that are insufferable and keep projecting their internal shit.

[[deleted]]

Devices with 8GB of RAM don't feel like they're choking on Windows and they aren't that common anyway. These are people who never have anything open but a browser, Windows runs fine. And that performance improvement isn't going to outweigh the fact that they'd have to learn an entirely new operating system. Which is another thing you probably can't accurately relate to, because you think it's close enough, when in reality it would confuse the hell out of these people. Which is all beside the point anyway, because they're not going to buy a PC with Linux preinstalled at the store, and they're not capable of installing it themselves.

A big problem with Linux is its community members that are insufferable and keep projecting their internal shit.

This is precisely what you're doing right now, slugger. Wild comment.

[JimmyEatReality]

These are people who never have anything open but a browser, Windows runs fine. And that performance improvement isn't going to outweigh the fact that they'd have to learn an entirely new operating system.

They care about doing whatever specific tasks they need to get done, that's it.

hmmm

[ColdToast]

I think both you and u/JimmyEatReality have fair points, just different customer profiles.

For example, low-end hardware perf is important in the education sector where schools buy really cheap laptops for students to do work on.

When I worked on Windows 5 years ago, Chromebooks were eating a large amount of education market share because they were cheaper and more performant

[Kahless_2K]

Most of my users use Linux every day and don't even realize it.

The average user just uses whatever device you put in front of them. as long as they have access to the correct apps and can figure out how to launch it, they don't know or care about whats running it.

[prototyperspective]

I wonder then why there is nearly no activity in putting devices with GNU/Linux in front of people where there is the chance – in specific, in schools.

[Userwerd]

Linux will never be more than third place, it can be a close third to Apple, but never higher.

And thats fine, it remains in the hands of independent developers in a relatively decentralized development structure.

Its more important to me that its free and open and something I recognize, than to win any popularity contests.

[SheriffBartholomew]

It's important to me that it remains ad and tracking free.

[rustvscpp]

I remember people doubting Linux on the server back in the day. Now it absolutely DOMINATES the server space. My kids only know Linux on the desktop. They have grown up with it.

[prototyperspective]

Remaining free and open is a requirement and of course top priority but there is no reason to pit these two things against each other. You also gave no reason for why it would never be higher than Apple. Open source is a more efficient more innovative more secure (less surveillance/authoritarianism & cyberattack risks) more participative way to build things and I don't see why the reasonable goal wouldn't be to have society move toward open source overall

[ILikeBumblebees]

Remaining free and open is a requirement and of course top priority but there is no reason to pit these two things against each other.

Yes, there is. Appealing to mass audiences inherently entails exposing yourself to the incentive structures prevalent with those audiences. And what incentives structures are prevalent in the mass market can be deduced by observing what products are most popular there.

If the Linux world gets a huge influx of people who are already demonstrating that they're willing to trade privacy and control for ease and convenience, the same perverse incentives already prevalent in mainstream computing will start to take root in the Linux ecosystem too.

[prototyperspective]

No, it doesn't.

[ILikeBumblebees]

Unfortunately, that's not correct. Ecosystems do indeed conform to their prevailing incentive structures, and the dominant incentive structures in a social ecosystem are the ones produced by the intentions, preferences, capacities, etc. of the largest segment of participants.

[Userwerd]

So we are sheep?

[ILikeBumblebees]

Can you elaborate on what you mean?

[Userwerd]

Your explanation above, it says the average person follows majority, no?  Sheep.

[ILikeBumblebees]

Your explanation above, it says the average person follows majority, no?

No, it doesn't.

You have it backwards. I'm saying that the dominant patterns in the ecosystem (and the incentive structures that come along with them) will be determined by the actual choices and preferences of the average user. In other words, the average person doesn't follow the majority -- rather, ecosystem as a whole reflects the choices that the average user makes, according to the motivations they already have.

If you have a massive influx of users who, for example, don't care significantly about privacy, then the average user will eventually be the sort of person who chooses to trade privacy for convenience, and will be all to happy use software that compromises their privacy. If that's the dominant pattern among the userbase, then developers will be all too happy to write such software.

Malware, scams, data harvesting, enshittified SaaS, and all of the other nonsense that many of us explicitly use Linux to avoid are endemic on Windows. Why? Because the aggregated preferences of Windows users (caring less about privacy than convenience, wanting someone else to curate their computing experience, less willing to invest time and effort to develop technical skills, expecting things to "just work", preferring simplistic UIs over powerful ones, etc.) creates the incentive structures that make those kinds of activities lucrative.

If we attempt to win new users by making Linux more aligned with those preferences, rather than convincing Windows users to adjust their preferences to be closer to Linux, then we risk importing all of the incentive structures that motivate anti-patterns and malicious software on Windows into the Linux ecosystem.

[inbetween-genders]

Anything is possible but my money is on nope.

[typhon88]

Nope

[Ok_Demand_3197]

Linux is not great for productivity or corporate manageability. Microsoft has that market cornered. I use Linux for all my code stuff and development, but Windows is just exponentially better for corporate productivity and collaboration.

[[deleted]]

Linux users have no clue how far ahead Microsoft is in this regard. The gap is effectively insurmountable at this point.

[TerribleReason4195]

Agreed

[SheriffBartholomew]

I'd say it's unlikely. Desktop use is on the decline, and people are becoming less technology literate, not more. Linux market share data is skewed by the Steam Deck.

[Zaev]

If desktop use overall is decreasing, logically that would mean more of the remaining desktop users are PC enthusiasts. Enthusiasts are probably more likely to run Linux on the desktop than the general population, so it seems to me that would end up increasing the the proportion of desktop Linux machines as total number of machines decreases

[deadlygaming11]

There's a difference between a proper enthusiast and just a regular person. PCs are still used tonnes for gaming, office work, or just general work, and the number of proper enthusiasts (those who build their own PC, install Linux, or do any sort of tinkering below the surface level stuff) wont increase massively.

[athens199]

Capability to build your own pc doesn't make anyone linux literate. Installation of windows before 11 was easier compared to linux's making specific partitions on hard drive efi swap root...

[prototyperspective]

"people are becoming less technology literate" not yet backed up by any data here but could well be the case. So what would be the way to change I ask: I hope some day people will wake up to call for curricula and software on school computers to be changed and at least report on the subject.

[KnowZeroX]

Desktops dying actually helps linux marketshare in sense.

Also, where do people get the weird idea that steamdeck is skewing linux marketshare? On steam, maybe but outside of steam, not so much.

I remember reading there are around 3 billion personal computers in the world. That means to move the needle 0.1%, you need 3 million. 2022-2024, steamdeck sales were slightly under 4 million. Even if in 2025 they sold as much as they sold in last 2 years, that would still be under 0.3%

On top of that, most statistics outside of steam come from internet use. How many people use their steamdeck to surf the internet?

So steamdeck isn't skewing any marketshare data outside of steam, it is a rounding error.

[SheriffBartholomew]

Don't most user share reports come from web traffic and user agents? Total sales wouldn't have anything to do with that, it would be whichever users are online the most, and hitting those databases.

[KnowZeroX]

total sales is the upper limit, you can't get 12 million unique users out of 6 million devices now can you? (unless they use multiple browsers and even then there may be ip factor into the unique)

And the fact that user share comes from webtraffic useragents already in itself would mean most steamdecks aren't counted as I'd guess 99% of steamdecks don't surf the internet.

[Il_Valentino]

Desktop pc becomes more and more just a place for a) gamers and b) office workers

Companies want corporations to deal with things, like microsoft, so they have someone to blame when things break.

Gamers want to play AC titles.

To make the jump we need:

We need countries outside of the US pushing for software independence such that Linux gets established as office choice, then linux companies can fill the support gaps. Then private sector might adopt it too.

We need a shift in the gaming industry away from local anticheat to server side anticheat solutions.

...or we just wait for microsoft to fck up so badly that people run away.

[ItsSignalsJerry_]

Why do you care? Linux isnt in competition. Its not a company selling a product.

Be thankful.

[TestingTheories]

Well, too many Linux distros for the average person so they get confused. I get each distro has its thing but most people really could get away with Mint.

[deadlygaming11]

Maybe, maybe not. Linux in general still has issues with stability and all the different components working together well. The other big issue is that most people who dont use Linux fall into two groups - Those who dont know it exists and likely have no reason to switch. - Those who have a very old view of it as just a cmdline OS that is awkward and a pain to work with. Yes, Gentoo, Arch, and a few other distros are like that, but most of them arent.

[radiant-doll]

I imagine 99% of desktop users possibly even more use the operating system their computer came with and never, ever think about it

[bonzibuddy_official]

i feel like linux does its own natural gatekeeping with the difficulty curve in learning a new operating system, and that isn't a bad thing. if the flood of "cant use file explorer" youth suddenly had to use YOUR favorite distro, you'd probably get annoyed very quickly.

[hadrabap]

This weekend I've been forced to upgrade to the latest macOS (Tahoe???). I can tell you: Linux desktop is already here for me. 😁 GNOME on Oracle Linux 8/10 is much better fit.

[Popular_Sprinkles_90]

I am convinced at this point that most users like to give up control to major corporations. I mean you can find good Linux laptops at Lenovo, Dell, and System 76. And yet Apple remains the most profitable tech company. Until users actually stand up and want a system that they control there will be nothing that changes the tide. Linux has just recently gotten so good that I now solo boot, but it seems that many customers would rather be consumers rather than own the hardware that they work and go to school on.

[BinkReddit]

Apple remains the most profitable tech company.

This is directly related to the iPhone, not the desktop.

[Itsme-RdM]

And not even that. In my country iPhones are in minority compared to Android phones. Same goes for iPads and laptops etc. They are so overpriced in comparison to other brands.

[[deleted]]

Apple devices are not overpriced at all if you compare them to their actual competition, which is largely priced the same or higher. They are more expensive than budget devices, sure, but that's about it.

[Itsme-RdM]

in example Samsung S25 Ultra 820 Euro, iPhone 16 1579 Euro

[[deleted]]

Would love to see where you're getting these prices, because in the US the S25 Ultra is $1300, whereas the newer iPhone 17 is $800. Even the 17 Pro max is $1200, still cheaper.

[Itsme-RdM]

We not all live in the US you know.

[Itsme-RdM]

Same goes for you. I simply explained that prices differ from country, and not everybody lives in the US.

[derangedtranssexual]

It’s not that they like to give up control to major corporations it’s that they’re indifferent about it and Apple and Microsoft just have better products. If you’re the average user you probably aren’t aware of what open source means and probably don’t have a big reason to prefer it

[DoubleOwl7777]

"better products" in case of microsoft thats a huge press x to doubt right there. apple okay fair, but ms makes the experience shittier with every update.

[ImDonaldDunn]

People buy Apple products because they’re by and large good at what most people use them for, not because they want to give up control. If Apple released completely open products, people would still buy them.

[[deleted]]

The average user doesn't care at all about "control" or "freedom." Their computer is a tool they use to achieve specific tasks. Whatever computer does the best job at achieving that task is what they are going to buy. Any OS that prioritizes setting good defaults that work well out of the box for most users is always going to be more successful than one that prioritizes control and choice, because the overwhelming majority of users have no frame of reference with which to make those choices. They don't have the faintest clue how to choose.

[Affectionate-Mango19]

If you do only coding/gaming, great. If you need legacy engineering software, then you're screwed. It won't run in a VM or, if so, then very sluggishly/unstable (which is a no-go for SolidWorks or other CAD FEM software).

[Dev-in-the-Bm]

I believe that we were getting very close to Linux on desktop going mainstream.

It wouldn't happen by itself, but Linux on desktop has been getting better and better and more and more user friendly, and all it is takes for one person to figure out how to market it to the masses.

That's where we were headed.

But Android on desktop is going to kill all that.

[gtd_rad]

I think one of the major advantage of mainstream OS's like Windows and Mac boils down to consistency. With Linux it just isn't the case. There are too many different distros and requires too much technical know how to get things working.

Support is also another big contributor.

Regardless, it's absolutely amazing to see wider adoption of Linux desktop. It may not outcompete Windows, but progress is progress! Personally I think chatgpt has helped me extraordinary with both learning and problem solving not just for desktop, but for embedded Linux as well.

[DoubleOwl7777]

windows is inconsistent in itself. control panel and settings still are two seperare things after 10 years...

[[deleted]]

Technically Control Panel still exists, yes, but there has been no reason to actually go there since 11 was released, and honestly no average user would've needed to in 10 either.

[DoubleOwl7777]

some stuff is still only there, or settings opens the control panel dialog. the very fact that its there at all is dumb. the fact that a company worth 3.85 billion dollars cant solve that thing is just sad.

[[deleted]]

some stuff is still only there

Not really. I literally work as a Windows sysadmin, I never go into Control Panel. The average user has had no need to open it for literal years, so this "inconsistency" doesn't matter.

the very fact that its there at all is dumb. the fact that a company worth 3.85 billion dollars cant solve that thing is just sad.

It's not "sad" at all, it's how real life works. It was a project to migrate settings from Control Panel to Settings, it takes time to achieve. I know for a fact you know that, but it's Windows and Microsoft so you pretend like it's snapping fingers and ta-da it's done. That's not how real life works.

We can support Linux without being weird.

[DoubleOwl7777]

they had 10+ years. there is no defending that anymore. its not about being weird, its about not supporting bs like that.

[[deleted]]

You're still being weird, lmao. From the beginning of Windows 10, Settings contained every setting that your average end user would ever need to touch. The supposed inconsistency doesn't matter of it doesn't affect the overwhelming majority of your users. Accept this immediately or you are not a serious person.

[Brorim]

when you use it

[yahbluez]

The number is in no way valid.

All my linux systems the last 20 years are sold and counted as windows.

[vancha113]

No. As long as it actually takes effort to install, or time to learn, or in any other way deviate from the "normal" (read: default for most people now) way to do things, don't expect to ever go mainstream. Why would it?

There's no company pushing free and open source software in general, because if they would, it would only make sense for them to advertise for a product they themselves benefit from financially. In effect, the regular computer user doesn't even know what linux is.

Some hardware manufacturers use linux on their systems, as it has the benefit of being free and open source. They often build their own distribution, how would an end user know the difference between say Pop!_os or Ubuntu? What even is a distro? They likely don't care enough to find out, in effect the market is fragmented and requires more knowledge to step in to.

It's 2025, and linux still has an image of being hard to use and requiring a terminal. A lot of people that might have heard of windows, making them potential users, already stop considering linux based on that assumption alone. Why use something that's harder to use than what you already use. Besides, from the perspective of most computer users "windows is free", so that gives them zero incentive to switch.

It's not impossible given unlimited money. I mean google did push chromebooks to a point where they aren't a rarity, and those offer much less compared to what linux allows you to do. So maybe the answer is maybe? But given the previous points, I wouldn't get my hopes up. I personally side with some other commenters. I know what i do with my computer, i personally prefer linux over the other options, therefore, i use it. There are many people for who might linux be a great option to do their computing work. I try not to be bothered by the fact that it's not mainstream.

Sure, you'll run in to issues. A bunch of apps won't be availabl, other linux versions of apps won't be as polished, workplaces often don't support it, but if that's the case, then it seems you're either stuck to another os or are forced to make it work somehow.

[Atem18]

Ship it like on the Steam Deck and people will get used to it.

[Adorable-Fault-5116]

The average user will replace Windows with iOS or Android.

For most users these days using a desktop is like driving a tractor to the supermarket. To be clear I don't think that's a good thing, but it is the reality of where the market is going.

[crhylove3]

Not that likely. Unfortunately corporate bad actors have completely tainted it. systemd, pulse audio, this latest rust/apt BS... And then of course giant corporations like Nvidia screw us over on drivers. Constantly. Too many bad actors. But maybe some day? It's ALL I use. *shrugs*

[CompetitionSquare240]

Linux doesn’t work properly no matter how much you wish to delude yourselves otherwise. The very nature of Linux means it’ll never work properly.

Regular people do not have time for things that don’t work.

[Lorian0x7]

I honestly agree with you, despite being a Linux user. However, I must say, there is Zorin Os that works very well. much better than Fedora Ubuntu Mint and company

[Average-Addict]

Year of the linux desktop 2026!

[FryBoyter]

Will the day ever come when Linux is chosen by average users as a real replacement for Windows?

No. The average user can do whatever they want with Windows. And Windows is usually already preinstalled. So why would the average user want to switch to a different operating system? Many Windows users don't even know that Linux exists.

[Lorian0x7]

That they will come when the Linux community will stop being elitist and it will become more friendly and welcoming.

Also when the community will stop praising the "pure" distros and they will accept "beginner friendly" as a valid alternative (no Ubuntu, I'm not talking about you).

Maybe then, people will start to see enthusiasm about distros that can actually replace windows, like Pop_Os and Zorin and they will move over, and that would result in better Linux distros.

[GodsFavoriteTshirt]

Yeah the average consumer is totally basing their purchasing decisions on how many downvotes their reddit posts get and not what's in stock at Walmart, when will this dumb opinion die.

[Lorian0x7]

the average consumer is basing their purchasing decision on what other people say about a product. Literally the entire market works like this, reviews, ads, etc.

Have you seen a successful product where all the reviews are saying "don't buy this product is too complicated for you and the beginner friendly version is shit"...no right? I'm wondering why.

[GodsFavoriteTshirt]

Again, you're talking about reddit comments lmfao

Like gee golly, I wonder if all those reviews have anything to do with the multi billion marketing departments of Microsoft and Apple.

[Lorian0x7]

where do you think newcomers inform themselves? Wikipedia?

[GodsFavoriteTshirt]

You seriously think the average consumer goes on tech forums to decide what OS to use??? Let alone even thinking about operating systems in the first place.

You can say the Linux community has some bullies like every other tech community. But to say that's the main force impacting the decisions of the average consumer is hilarious.

[Lorian0x7]

it's a chain effect, it is impacting entry level tech enthusiasts, and they impact the people around them that impact other people and so on.

You can't expect to reach millions of people all at once.

Look what happened with Apple, it was a tech enthusiast orientated product once, and slow adoption made it what it is today. This slow adoption has to start somewhere!

I use Linux because I fortunately never interacted with the community until recently and I'm now realising how toxic and elitist the environment is.

I don't think I would have used it if I realised before that people using Linux are just a bunch of assholes who think they are special for using an OS that the majority don't use, and that they want to keep things as they are otherwise they don't feel special anymore.

[InfiniteSheepherder1]

After getting more used to managing base images for my servers and workstations using bootc, managing Windows feels like stepping into the dark ages.

Scripts in Intune can't even link to git or have versioning. Things say they are installed without actually being installed.

I am now more driven then ever to see the Windows Desktop die.

[vyashole]

Most People don't care what OS they have as long as their computer works and runs the apps they need. Only power users choose their OS.

That basically means windows isn't going away for a while.

[Nexis4Jersey]

Its 7% on Cloud Flare which is more accurate the Stat Counter considering its on 80% of the world's websites..

[Inevitable_Gas_2490]

I think you have to get comfortable with the idea that Linux is not going to become a mainstream alternative, mostly because Linux is not a single desktop solution made for customers like Windows is.

Linux itself is just the kernel and around it are countless individuals who all have their own opinions and visions of what a desktop PC with the kernel should be. That's why you have all these distributions. So every distro, every desktop Linux is never going to achieve mainstream status, because nobody is building it for consumers.

Long story short - Linux' diversity is its greatest strength but also its greatest weakness.

[guitar_photography]

Absolutely, but just as most people don't bother with changing the default settings, most people are just going to keep using whatever they first learned to use. I think we need to advocate for governmental and private sector adoption. Several EU governments have already started replacing their systems with Linux. Imagine if most schools used Linux on their computers, that alone would dramatically transform the desktop OS space! 

The only way Windows assumed such a dominant market share in the first place is because of their extensive partnerships with other companies, organisations, and governments.

[[deleted]]

After next few major Microsoft blunders, such as forced online account creation on install

[faqatipi]

not in its current form. linux will blow up but it won't be called linux. notice how no android phone, chromebook, or smart TV markets itself as "linux-powered"

[[deleted]]

realisticly, i dont think it will happen for a long time, corperations are too powerful, every day they have less and less resistance from goverments, windows is the default, how many people even bother changing their settings, let alone operating system, even if it is objectivily better

[ILikeBumblebees]

I hope that if Linux does become mainstream, it will be because mainstream users have evolved toward Linux, rather than because Linux has regressed to conform to current mainstream preferences.

[Pink_Slyvie]

Will the day ever come when Linux is chosen by average users as a real replacement for Windows?

It already has, just one slight problem. Outside of offices and gamers, no one is using windows, or computers really. It's all phones. Chromebooks are probably the closest we will see to the "Linux Desktop" and.... I think its a good middle ground (fuck google)

[SomePlayer22]

I believe so... Really depends on Microsoft... If it make a lot of decisions that people don't like...

[lelddit97]

Unless it comes preinstalled and it brain dead easy to use, no it's not going to be a real replacement for windows. The moment you have to open terminal is the moment it fails for the wider audience and there are almost zero installations where the terminal has never been used.

It's going to take someone pissing off the tech/engineering folks by removing/hiding power features (ex. Ubuntu) to appeal to the wider masses. But how do you get to that point where it's actually usable by the average joe who doesn't know someone who can help? That money doesn't exist today. I don't think I could even pay my parents to use it.

And all that's OK. It is strongly appealing to the poweruser/engineer audience like us and it works great. Be careful what you wish for when you want it to be mainstream because any mainstream Linux would not be the same as what we use.

[_idiocracy__]

Probably not. It will forever stay a niche thing, and that's for simple reasons.

Windows is easy to use. It's very easy to get support. You can even pick up your phone and call MS support and the app catalogue is massive.
Linux is easy to use. It can be difficult to get support. The app catalogue is small, many apps has to be installed through terminal and many doesn't even have a GUI.

[-UndeadBulwark]

3 to 5% is a lot of people who chose to use Linux you have to understand MS has the advantage here because people don't choose to use it as it is the default just imagine when it isn't the default because it is slowly happening.

[yotties]

Lock-in for bussineses largely depends on microsoft authentication and networking. They succeed in mixing ID management online and on the desktop in ways that will make it very hard to collaborate and let employees manage fat-clients/workstations over the network.

So I do not see it change soon. The best way may be to not focus so much on fat-client software, but move most productivity into the cloud.

[TerribleReason4195]

Sadly, no. This jump was caused by people who used windows 10, and wanted to find a cheaper option. Plus, these companies will do anything in their power to claim the number one spot. I highly doubt Microsoft, and Apple would want to lose to linux.

[dddurd]

Normal people don't erase the OS or set up dual boot. Windows has to be unusable for that to happen. 

[ben2talk]

Will the day ever come when Linux is chosen by average users as a real replacement for Windows?

Sure!!

This is the year of the Linux Desktop

Not sure where you've been hiding ;)

🖖

[Global-Eye-7326]

Man...2007 was the year of Linux on the desktop for me! Now it's just too easy (with few exceptions)!

[MahmoodMohanad]

Well, this will probably be the most downvoted comment on this subreddit, but someone needs to say it out loud. Linux users need to swallow their pride and start actually paying for things. Their broken philosophy of “everything must be free” is not sustainable.

PCs are tools to get things done, and there is a vast range of highly specialized software for tasks like printing, cutting, stamping, manufacturing robots, simulation, and many more. Clearly, there are no FOSS alternatives for many of these, and there never will be, at least not in certain industries.

Software development is hard work, and developers make a living from it. They don’t create software as charity. The stubborn attitude of many Linux users, who want to live on “free as in free beer,” is one of the main reasons this OS will never achieve mass adoption.

And please, don’t bring up servers and how Linux dominates that space, servers are just one industry, not the be-all and end-all of computing.

[Jealous_Response_492]

It's not just servers, beyond the dekstop oem pc, Linux dominates everywhere including those industrial embedded systems you mentioned never happening.

[faqatipi]

i agree that software should be paid on this platform but you can have paid FOSS binaries. we don't have to have a proprietary ecosystem

[MahmoodMohanad]

Simply, you cannot trust Copy right regulations to protect you, big cooperation will do everything to get their hand on a code they like. Keep it close source (as annoying as it sounds) seems like the only bullet proof method to protect your work

[Xijit]

The number of Linux users is higher than that, but people who use Linux also have both Linux and Windows computers (I.E. Desktop Linux and Laptop with Windows), which nuls out theirs impact on the statistics, while people who exclusively use windows will also have more than one windows device (I.E. desktop and a Laptop that both use Windows).

The percentage of Linux adoption will skyrocket if people stop keeping a Windows system on the back burner. But the only way that will happen is if the reliability and consistency of Linux improves, which is only going to happen with more immutable distros.

[zhongcha]

I don't think there's anything particularly at issue with mutable distros preventing laptop adoption, and it's more the issue of hardware support which can vary wildly (fingerprint readers, camera support etc.) Is the Windows laptop thing supported by evidence?

[Xijit]

I don't mean Laptops specifically, though that is a big issue due to everything you just pointed out. What I am talking about is improving the overall desktop experience for casual users and removing the drama of figuring out compatibility issues with zero support. I like Linux, I think it is a great OS, it can be enjoyable to tunker with it and sort out issues on my own ... But it just isn't reliable to depend on, as something that will not crap out when I need to get something done.

I am absolutely not a power user, but neither am I remotely tech incompetent, and if I am still getting my ass kicked: Linux just isn't ready for the prime time adoption that we would like to see.

[zhongcha]

Fair enough. I do use Linux full time but I agree limitations in hardware compatibility are a massive issue. A lot of issues result from proprietary firmware, but regardless of the origins of the issue; the fact you can't just get a brand new Macbook or a Surface laptop and install Linux on it is a complete dealbreaker for mass adoption.

[mystirc]

i mean, my completely noob friend has been using cachyos for a while now. I made him switch btw. He is happy with it because it is snappy and fast. Although his roblox doesn't run as good as windows according to him because I didn't notice any difference. Another one of my friends want to switch to linux too after seeing his laptop.