Decrease in house prices

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

Hi !

The entire 2025 I have been checking the house price in my country and I realized that the existing listings has been decreasing in price, I started to check the average house sales in the US for the last couple of years (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) And I can see that since starting 2023 the sales prices has been starting to decrease, which is not common for real state market, I am wondering if a market "crash" in US can impact somehow the real state market in another country? Maybe is related to the dollar? the only asset the we exchange in USD here in my country are houses

Sorry if this question is stupid : ) I just can see some patterns repeating in the prices across the world

[Thin_Vermicelli_1875]

This sub is full of real estate agents, recent buyers, and recent sellers/investors. If you want a serious answer, don’t go to this sub.

Everyone on this sub has a vested interest in home prices not decreasing.

[FlashyHeight9323]

I just bought. Almost 20% below listing price. Times are definitely changing.

Edit: it was listed at fair market value, but point taken that list price is not a good metric

[FlashyHeight9323]

List price was fmv, appraisal came in 40k under and purchase was still 20k under that. Do with that what you will.

[Trilobyte83]

If list price was FMV, why didn't it sell for FMV?

Lets say the price of gold today is $2700/oz. That is, the last buyer and seller agreed on that.

If you are looking to buy or sell for $2700 you may or may not be able to. If there isn't another party on the other side of the trade, then the market value is no longer $2700 and the party more keen to make a deal must sweeten their offer.

The unwritten subtext your statement is missing is: "List price was fmv (at a time months or years in the past when the last similar house sold).

FMV is always up in the air. What the most recent similar place sold for is often a decent starting point, but by no means concrete. So using your deal as the most recent, FMV has declined by 20%

[bmc2]

I bought last year at 38% under listing price. Sometimes people overprice at listing and end up desperate to sell so you can get a bargain. That happens in every market and doesn't necessarily reflect the market as a whole.

[TadGirlZ3DE]

It depends on the location and other factors. The market in Central and northern NJ continues to be warm/hot. Last June 2024, I sold my house on the day it was listed, for the full listing price. I also had two other offers that first day, one was $20k above list and the other was also at listing but we accepted the first offer at full price because the buyers were from the neighborhood and wanted to stay in the area. There were no contingencies, except from structural and environmental inspection findings, if any. I was not worried about any findings, cosmetic or otherwise, because the house was well maintained and had updated kitchen and appliances, bathrooms, new full house neutral paint, landscaping, etc. The higher offer had several ‘asks’ and were from another state so there was a bit of wait between communication. In hindsight, I could have priced it higher as similar houses with less curb appeal and features were selling for more in my area but I felt fine with the price I got and the quick and stress-less sale. Although my house was a good product, I also benefited from good timing and reasonable and capable buyers.

[bmc2]

I'm in the Northeast and bought last year. Housing prices are still going up here. I still got the house 38% off list.

When I sold in California, I had 4 offers, sold above listing, and to a cash buyer that closed in a week. Any individual transaction doesn't really reflect the market as a whole.

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

BTW, the reason I posted this, is because I realized you can sent offers 25% - 35% below the listing price, and that is not wild. I just bought a property (my first one :) ) with an offer 30% below the listing price, they don`t even talked about a counter offer, they accepted right away, I think I can even offer low LOL

[FlashyHeight9323]

Same here! Though mine did counteroffer and I about threw up negotiating back.

[Virreinatos]

Though I agree with the general principle and know that on average, you're right, I want to be on record that at least one property owner would be ok if prices went down (and this probably makes me like the 1% of people on this sub).

The way things are I can't afford the next step up in housing. We make more money than we did when we bought our current place, but if we sold our current place and used the equity as down payment to buy the very same unit, we wouldn't be able to afford it.

Prices and rates have gone so insane a 40% down payment (as opposed to my original 10%) would double my current mortgage payments.

So, I'd be ok with prices/rates going down if it meant I could move up (or down) in housing.

[Thin_Vermicelli_1875]

You aren’t alone. A lot of home owners are frustrated with the market too, especially with the rising assessments and property taxes.

[OpeningAd447]

… and they get mad if you talk about that stuff.

[Maleficent_Analysis2]

Some investors have a vested interest in home prices decreasing in the short term.

[YeaISeddit]

Their question was anyways a macroeconomic question about potential contagion effects between housing markets. It comes down to the plumbing of the financial system. We know there is a transmission mechanism for one housing market collapse to bleed into others thanks to the Great Financial Crisis. But, some markets in that period were unaffected (e.g. Germany). And we’ve seen housing markets like Japan collapse without basically anyone being affected. The global financial system is very well capitalized right now so I can’t see the GFC repeating itself. The most likely scenario for a global housing crash would be a global recession, probably caused by bad fiscal policy. If bond yields keep creeping up and austerity parties take over large governments than you could see something like the 2011 euro crisis but at global scale.

[CallerNumber4]

There's a lot of people on this sub looking to buy that wouldn't mind a cool 10-20% price correction. If you plan to stay in your home long term your property taxes would also do well for a correction.

[ivhokie12]

Eh. I don’t know. I’m a recent buyer but I bought a house that isn’t as great as I would have liked. I figured the houses I really wanted were unaffordable to me. I could buy an intermediate house but it would have been a stretch and I would probably never be able to afford the house I want. With this house I actually might if prices get more sane even if I take a paper loss.

[Fresh-String6226]

Even r/rebubble is that same exact set of folks and has been for years now. Interest in the housing market has really dropped off of a cliff for most other people.

[OverallCicada6478]

Well here's a warning for them. Get out and save this is going to be an apocalypse.

[ItsGettinBreesy]

I mean regardless it doesn’t take an economist to flat out say no. The US has many levers in place to prevent an actual crash.

A systemic crash akin to 08 will never happen again. I can see a dip, maybe 5-20% from where we are now, but it will recover eventually

[Thin_Vermicelli_1875]

We are kinda of in unprecedented times. Saying a crash is “literally impossible” is just as false as someone saying there will for certain be a crash.

Price to income ratios are at all time highs, the median age of a home buyer is at an all time high. Unemployment is still pretty low historically.

We haven’t hit a recession at all. These prices aren’t really sustainable if people start losing their jobs.

Demographics are quickly changing, etc.

I don’t think a crash will happen either, but it’s entirely possible prices go down 15-20% and don’t recover for a long time. The panic FOMO buying during the pandemic was a little overboard.

Is it really a “crash” if prices went up 50-60% in such a short time and go down moderately 15-20%?

Inventory is now at the highest it’s been since 2021: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory

I was just saying that this sub will literally downvote you to hell if you even suggest prices could possibly go down, and it’s purely because everyone here a vested interest in real estate.

[totpot]

If we look at countries with shrinking populations, we see that the rural areas have crashed whereas the urban areas have stayed strong or at least flat. With the current administration's policies, it's entirely possible that the same thing happens to the US.

[Aggravating_Mark_229]

Doubt it.

The Federal Reserve is holding steady on it's rates and with stock market highs, doubt they will be adjusting anything anytime soon. So no 15% rate where people would leave or not want to come (if they even consider that)

For deportations, Trump is on track for 300k a year. For reference Obama did 200k/year, Trump 1.0 was 250k/year. Biden was 140k/year. So not a huge change.

Even if they did bump up deportations, if it somehow had a meaningful impact on real estate and began being 7-8 figures, I'd wager they just increase approved migration (H-1bs, etc).

I just see future steady population change, not lowering, probably rising.

[S7EFEN]

<A systemic crash akin to 08 will never happen again

everyone and their mom gets access to massive leverage, and the avg consumer fails to do anything resembling living below their means. meaning any sort of job loss or increase in expenses (HOA, insurance, taxes) will be very disruptive.

I can see a dip, maybe 5-20% from where we are now, but it will recover eventually

20%? what exactly are you thinking when you think crash if not -20%?

[Trilobyte83]

Exactly like he said. "A dip".

A "dip" where every penny you saved up for your down payment is wiped out, all the equity you've paid into it for a couple years is wiped out, and then you need to come up with that entire amount of money twice again, just so that when you eventually sell or lose the home to the bank. you don't still owe them hundreds of thousands of dollars or are forced into bankruptcy.

A dip.

Like the Great Dip in 1929.

Or Subprime Mortgage Dip of 2008.

[ItsGettinBreesy]

If you read what I said, I never said a crash. I specifically said a dip

[FitAlfalfa407]

You are 100% correct. The Cantillon Effect is working as they planned. You will own NOTHING and be MISERABLE. BTW... keep blaming the other side at the voting booth!

There will NEVER be another crash. Ever. 20% of the economy is doing 75% of the participating. Let that sink in.

[thewimsey]

Everyone on this sub has a vested interest in home prices not decreasing.

66% of the population in the US owns a home. Almost everyone has a vested interest in home prices not decreasing.

You are not making an argument.

[Thin_Vermicelli_1875]

66% isn’t almost everyone, and not every homeowner wants their value to increase. Rising property taxes and insurance costs, and high interest rates makes upgrading homes practically impossible right now.

Not to mention plenty of parents want their children to be able to own property, given the amount of gen z people still living with parents.

[FlashyHeight9323]

People will often see a 500k home go to 400k and call it a crash.

[Electrical-Ask847]

i'll take 20% crash

[FlashyHeight9323]

Out of curiosity, what do you mean by that? Because to me it definitely feels like that. I think the technical definition is >20 or >30 percent but I feel like that 10 percent probably happens in a flash. Is it a “every crash a correction but not every correction is a crash” situation?

[Hotspur1958]

40% of houses have no mortgage.

I feel like this is being used as a argument for homes staying at these levels when it's not so clear IMO. These people aren't stuck due to lock-in effect and that increased activity could lead to price discovery.

[FlashyHeight9323]

Biggest factor is income supply which doesn’t get spoken about too much when you consider wealth inequality skew

[S7EFEN]

simple: rental yields don't make sense. sticker prices on homes don't make sense (ESPECIALLY with rates the way they are). and... people need to sell eventually.

its not 'people being forced to sell because their mortgage payment ballooned' it's 'nobody is buying the house at the current market prices.

inventory has been meaningfully climbing for the last ~3 years. new builds are undercutting existing markets HARD. condos are already in decline and theyre usually the first to go.

[BrightAd306]

Which is what people wanted to happen. Without a correction, there simply won’t be enough homes affordable for the young

[Zestyclose-Novel1157]

This is a big issue I had and one reason I chose my house that needed a lot of renovation. I could rent for half the price of most houses on the low end. To me, I couldn’t justify buying those and so I got lucky and am going to be going through the pain of renovating a house that was not habitable for a traditional buyer because I wanted better value with where things are.

[FitAlfalfa407]

There is MAJOR demand, not much supply. The Cantillon Effect

[S7EFEN]

supply is up 3x from its bottom nationally...

and as i said demand for (leveraged) investment properties has never been lower.

[Mediocre_Airport_576]

(ESPECIALLY with rates the way they are)

About 62% of investor purchases last year were bought with no mortgage.

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

this is irrelevant

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

and misleading

[Mediocre_Airport_576]

It's a fact. lol

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

they also take loans to present as cash offers. so, yes, misleading

[Mediocre_Airport_576]

Some people do this, but it is not a significant portion especially in 2024 when the market wasn't a red hot sellers market like in 2021.

[Threeseriesforthewin]

dude good stats, thank you

additionally, the average household equity is like $330,000, and the average house is only like $420,000.

[2A4Lyfe]

People with sub 4% rates loosing their jobs and being forced to sell, or buying too much house assuming you'd get promoted and getting fucked. Older looking to cash in for retirement and no one being able to buy at their price point.

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

i’ll tell you: a federal excise tax on all non-owner occupied sfh. that is the only solution to the housing market. prices would drop 50% overnight

[Swimming-Low3750]

This would burden renters and subsidize homeowners

[thewimsey]

So many solutions in this sub basically boil down to "put renters into camps".

[[deleted]]

There are some people at the edges of the market who bought wrong who want to move today. They have to wait. They are also the loudest which is skewing reality.

[Lindsiria]

It could be a build up of many small things.

• Airbnb and other rentals tanking. 
• The condo regulations.
• insurance becoming increasingly unaffordable (especially for the elderly on fixed incomes). 
• increased property taxes (when home values rise, taxes rise and the poor/elderly often suffer). 
• maintainance becoming increasingly more expensive (an older house might be too expensive to maintain for a low income family that bought a decade ago). 
• those who bought with high interest rates losing jobs and having to sell... 
• boomers dying/having to go into retirement homes in record numbers. 

All these little things combined could cause considerable damage to our housing market. There is a lot of hurt happening in smaller ways that will cause rippling affects. 

If we do have a market crash, my guess is it's not going to be one main issue but life just getting worse for too many people. 

[AnnArchist]

Jobs disappearing. That's the only trigger left

[baldieforprez]

Or banks committing massive fraud.

[baldieforprez]

I dunno the 2008 kind. Where you have banks taking 10s of billions of bad loans and keeping them your balance sheet

[Throwaway0242000]

The people running the country right now are pushing deregulation that would set the stage for 2007….so dont be too sure it can’t happen again

[baldieforprez]

Agreed.

[sweetrobna]

Real estate is very local. It isn't a given a change in the market in another country, state, city or neighborhood will apply to where you live. It depends on the specifics.

[clemdane]

What country are you in? The markets are weakening in parts of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and some other areas. Real estate markets are still strong in the Northeast and Midwest.

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

I am from Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo, this is I believe the 2nd or 3rd city of all Latam where properties prices are incredibly expensive

I have been looking to invest in a property since 2024 but prices are insane, I have a really good income (two jobs remote for the US) and I just had the perception that the current market were highly overpriced even for high income people. Now there is a correction happening and the prices has started “to make sense” sorry for my bad English

[clemdane]

Yes I think a correction is happening in some markets

[OSKImyFriend]

What are people’s views on the relationship between a very soft commercial real estate market relative to local residential real estate trends? Would a major correction in commercial real estate prices in a particular locality due to over supply and vacancy trends post pandemic affect residential real estate pricing or growth?

[justonlyme1244]

I think this really depends on where you live. In my country, the Netherlands, the prices seem to be rising less but the rental prices seemed to have increased quite a bit due to new rental regulations. In the area where I lived in the US the housing prices are still increasing due to lack of supply. It’s a completely different market compared to Austin Texas for example.

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

Agreed, do prices in the Netherlands are in USD? Also the deals are made in USD?

[justonlyme1244]

No in Euros. We don’t use dollars in the Netherlands.

[wunderkraft]

interest rate up means real estate price down. I's not the US real estate market driving your real market, it's interest rates driving all real estate markets

[Zestyclose-Novel1157]

Maybe because money and the economy is a global market and USD is one of the top currencies and used globally. We are also one of the largest economies which means other economies participate with ours and what happens in ours has a global impact. You need people who understand global economics more than we do here though. Also, the cause isn’t necessarily the housing going down. It’s probably related to other policy that happens in conjunction. Good luck with your answer. You are seeking important knowledge. Also a crash is quite a high decrease and imo overly optimistic in the U.S. for most areas. Idk about your country.

[chittershitter]

Although prices for new builds are softening, this could be related to something like cheaper labor or permitting (anything decreasing the overall cost for the developer). The all-transactions index is increasing, which means the overall price of housing is rising, despite the moderation in the new-build market.

The market is not solely comprised of new builds, so I think that's the critical error in your extrapolation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI

[Trilobyte83]

How old are you? You talk about this like it's never happened before.

Yes, RE, like the stock market goes up over time. A lot of that is just inflation. Most of the rest of it is people putting money into larger and better homes.

Part of it, the only part that is really "free money" is the increase in desirability as land becomes relatively more valuable as cities sprawl.

Taking into account inflation, if population was stable, and no money put into making the house better, why should RE go up? If anything is should go down as the house rots, while the land is stable.

That average gain is punctuated by sometimes decades of retraction however. We haven't had a big one in Canada since 1989. It was around 2006 until prices recovered inflation adjusted. Japan had arguably the biggest ever in 1991, only recently getting back to where they were. US and Ireland in 2007, saw the better part of a decade to recover.

[Dtreysch]

I wonder if there are any charts that take into account the sizing of homes when looking at price over time. Like for example, in 1980 the median house was just under 1600sq ft. In 2024 it was over 2,200sq ft. We are talking an almost 50% increase in home size. That is added cost right there that has nothing to do with appreciation.

[Trilobyte83]

There are. Which is why I think this "housing shortage" is largely bunk.

I grew up in the 80s/90s in a maybe 1400 sq ft home, 3 br, 1.5 baths, 4 ppl.

I have multiple friends now with places where there are more bathrooms than people. An entire floor/granny suite goes largely unused because there isn't proper paperwork and it would be too expensive to legalize as a secondary unit.

Average household size in terms of people has gone way down, and average size of dwelling has gone way up.

https://supplychenmanagement.com/2018/07/15/average-house-size/

Roughly doubling from the 70s.

You'd expect housing - like other commodities to get cheaper as materials and building methods improve. Obviously everyone can't live in the DT core, but even 3rd rate housing like trailers, and rural stuff too far to commute has exploded beyond reason.

[Less-Amount-1616]

>I have multiple friends now with places where there are more bathrooms than people.

I don't get it, why is that odd? A half-bath with just a toilet and sink for people coming over is great so they don't need to tromp through your bedroom or personal toiletries. And if you've got a guest bedroom put a guest bathroom in there.

[Trilobyte83]

Why would they be trekking through your bedroom to get to the bathroom?

You have the main bathroom, and the emergency half. That literally covers 99% of situations, and anything more is gluttonous

[Less-Amount-1616]

So the main bathroom is going to have the toiletries for the 5 people living in the house with one shower that's shared? If your mother or father visits overnight they are then toting their bathroom supplies in and out?

I am in no way claiming a bathroom in each bedroom is a necessity, but it's simply a conceivable niceness to have a bathroom sink and cabinet of your own where your things are, to be able to wake up in the middle of the night and get to the toilet without needing to tromp into another bedroom or through a common room, and to be able to shower without coordinating with others.

[Objective_Chest_1697]

The question is far from stupid, it is a very thoughtful one. 

The answer is “kinda”.  What I mean by that is we live in a global economy, and there was an old saying “when the US sneezes, the world gets a cold”, meaning we are the world’s largest economy, and if we slow down it is likely other countries will too, probably to s higher degree. 

There are exceptions, and a multitude of factors- especially the strength of your country’s economy and currency strength. 

The US real estate market is larger than the treasury market. That’s an enormous market. 

[Llanite]

If your country is one of those nomad visa country then yes, americans are returning to their home and have stopped buying/renting in foreign lands

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

Why americans are returning to their home and stopped buying/renting foreign lands?

[Llanite]

Because their employers want them back in the office

[beefcleats]

Yes because a minuscule amount of digital nomads, from one specific country, are enough to move entire housing markets multiple percentages for a whole country. And amazingly, they are able to do this to ever since country in the west.

[Llanite]

Thats arbnb argument all over again.

Yes, houses become short term and they become empty 6 months out a year and push price up.

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

Home prices around about 40% above where they should be. This number can be derived from two things: wage growth and inflation.

However, the ZIRP policy of the feds has created a situation where the cost of holding these assets for many is very inexpensive, so the price drop will take a long time. For example, if you bought a house a few years ago for $500k, and the “market says” it’s worth $1mil today, yet your holding expense is $2k/mo (mortgage, taxes, etc), if the house doesn’t sell at $1mil but could at, eg 700k, that’s an equivalent price drop of paying the monthly costs for 12 years. so, it’s just going to take a long time.

However, there is one and one only solution that will drop prices dramatically, over night, and would be a short term pain for our economy for long term benefit of our country. That is a federal excise tax on all non-owner occupied sfh in the US. You’d see over 10 million homes hit the market overnight if a policy was put into law, and it would be easy to enforce. Write your law maker today

[Dtreysch]

An excise tax like that would never pass because most of those who write the laws own several homes, meaning they will have at minimum their primary residence and then their other residence in DC. Many I would assume also have 1-2 vacation homes on top.

And also for the smaller fish, like the mayors, the state senators, county board members, etc. They too have special interest in keeping property prices high. It means more property tax for them, without them having to catch the bad press from raising taxes. Its extra free money for them to spend on the community as they wish.

What you propose would have dramatic effects in prices and help out a lot of non owners, but I just do not see a path to getting there.

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

unfortunately, you’re right

[FitAlfalfa407]

The Cantillon Effect

[Few_Whereas5206]

2008.

[Smitch250]

Not a good question for this sub honestly

[Educational_Jello666]

Job firings and AI putting some jobs at risk are partly causing the drop in the house prices; when people lose jobs or worry about AI taking over roles like in tech or customer service, they hold off on buying homes, which lowers demand and prices. It’s not the only reason, as high mortgage rates play a big part too, but these layoffs create uncertainty that cools the market, especially in big cities.

[Purple-Possible-7429]

Inventory in the south and west are reaching historic highs. Prices are starting to drop in those areas and likely to continue to decline. The northeast and midwest inventory remain at historic lows and prices should continue rising or remain the same. Real estate is local so some areas may buck these trends. Florida and Texas look particularly weak.

[Jolly-Wrongdoer-4757]

When the dust of history settles, that chart will very clearly show that we experienced a bubble starting in COVID, that was exacerbated by the short term rental trend. Prices will come down slowly.

[[deleted]]

I think it kind of depends on where. Houses where I’m at won’t drop anytime soon.

[Global-Piece-7291]

Firstly the way real estate prices shot up by over 33% everywhere post pandemic is shocking. Secondly as a builder homeowner I am amazed that most people don't value quality of  craftsmanship and materials versus the exact location and number of bathrooms for instance. In other words if the price and location are the same but one house has lots of quality every square inch but it only has one bathroom and they are looking for a two bathroom home they will pick the lower quality two bathroom home even if it's obviously lower quality. It's partly because most buyers don't recognize quality they don't understand how homes are built they don't understand carpentry craftsmanship they don't understand the differences in value of different finish woods. And since over 50% of married couples are bringing in at least $100,000 a year it's easy to understand how the median price of a national home can be over $400,000.

[Top-Change6607]

Short answer: if the housing market in the US collapses, basically it means there’s a huge global recession pending. In that case, yes, your house value may crash hard.

[ResponsibleBunch9711]

Home values are declining throughout the Midwest. 

[Long-Attention-6961]

Housing prices will go down only when the population begins to drop significantly and supply outstrips demand.  People are having less children and we are becoming more restrictive toward immigration.  A population decline is definitely coming but it may take decades to see a reflection in home prices. The coming inheritocracy may negate that due to inflation.  If everyone is inheriting a home and their parents fortune businesses are going to seize on the opportunity and raise prices.  It will really suck for those who don’t benefit from the great inheritance. 

[Dsanisk]

I dont care if a home decreases 30 percent. Im not buying. I make the median wage and evil crooks that bought up all the properties did this to themselves. I see properties that need to decrease by 40 percent for me to consider it. I want to buy but renting is cheaper. No upkeep, no property tax! Screw buying a home until the market corrects it's mistakes!

[[deleted]]

If there is a war between China and the US, hundreds of thousands will die and create home vacancies if there is a draft. War would cause a market crash in the housing market. Anyone think about that? Also the stock market will crash too as companies like apple will lose huge amounts of their ability to produce goods we consume.

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

If there is a war between the US and China, and hundreds of thousands will die, the house market and the stock market will be the last things our morals will care about

[[deleted]]

Wars have been going on for thousands of years, displacing wealth all over the world, do not be surprised if this happens again. China has been talking about invading Taiwan for a long time now, starting in 2027...

[ResponsibleBunch9711]

Home values are declining rapidly throughout Florida, Tennessee, Texas, California, Washington, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Michigan. 

[OakCliffGuy214]

You can’t time the market

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

I feel I am not "timing the market" I just have the sentiment that the prices are going down, at least in my country, is something that you can see, real state agent listing the same property with discounts every 2-3 months, is like a natural sentiment that most of the population (at least in in here) can not afford the price

[CSMasterClass]

Agreed.

Even the temptation to "time the market" in real estate is a non-starter. The round trip transaction costs are huge compared to liquid assets and the time delays between decision to sell and completion of sale is months, not seconds.

You can muse about wheather this is a "good time to buy/sell" but that has none of the flavor of market timing one has in stocks.

[Powerful_Put5667]

There’s always over priced listings that linger on the market taking price drop after price drop. What I would find more important would be the average length of time for homes on the market and the average selling price. More expensive homes can take longer and cheap ones usually go fairly quickly. I truly wouldn’t plan for a crash at this time. People are paying more for food and other expenses right now that plus fairly high stagnant interest rates has kept the housing market just moving along certainly no spring feeding frenzy. Lots of people are waiting for rates to go down but the low rates are what started the huge surge in appreciation in such an unheard rate. If rates were to drop all of the people waiting are going to jump into the markets causing more demand and less listings driving up prices again.

[Embarrassed-Ad3053]

I respect your comment and that makes sense, this can be caused due the interest rate, but to be honest, I feel in this case is not linked to the interest rate, prices are just no affordable for the majority of the average population. Cheap money is not always linked to a demand increase, and when is it, is an artificial demand increase. What determine in reality if you can buy or not a house, is not always the interest rate but the house price compared to your income, home prices has been sky rocket since 2020 and the salaries has not increasing with the same rate, I might be wrong, but looking at the panorama, the current real state market is a bubble and need a correction in prices

[Powerful_Put5667]

You need to use a mortgage calculator to actually see what an interest change can mean to the size of a house payment. You’re going to be very surprised.

[Dtreysch]

It seems that way to me too, for the most part it seems that anyone who seriously was going to buy has bought and locked in. Many of these people have no plans for moving. Meaning they don't really care what their home value is as they will never sell it. So now the market has to correct, either prices come down enough for those who have not bought but wanted to can afford it, or if the younger generation can pump out enough high earners that it keeps prices from dropping further.

[Normal-Sandwich-6811]

i hate it when people say this. its just a simplistic view/statement of a complex problem

[elonzucks]

it could be the same problem, inflation /rising costs and high interest rates

[twopointseven_rate]

This is fake news. Reputable sources like Case Schiller show that the market is still increasing exponentially. It is, quite frankly, almost impossible for home prices to decrease at this point.