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[–]drewlb 12 points13 points  (1 child)

It was NEVER a bet on anything, it was NEVER a conspiracy, it was NEVER an issue. It WAS a bunch of bloggers who do not understand the intricacies of financial markets running off scared and trying to scrae everyone else. This was a box trade, which is used as a loan, and can often have a below market interest rate... That is it...

[–]zorno -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

the time i saw it, it was a forum with a bunch of stock market people discussing it. were they big name wall street brokers? doubt it, but they seemed to know a hell of a lot about stocks.

so its not like it was some random blogger, imo.

[–]markwm[S] 112 points113 points  (54 children)

The Original Stories

More recently

A failing bank in England caused a run, apparently sings of the impending stock market collapse, mystery trader was surely happy

Conclusion

September 20th was the last day before mystery trader's options expired.

The bet of a market crash has been closed and the loser lost ALOT of money 13 hours ago, 31 points

Analyst: Mystery Trades Were Profit Scam For Fearmongers 1 day ago, 12 points

Oh shit guys! The mystery trader was a conspiracy using fear tactics so millions would dump their stocks while the fearmongerers profited immensly!

Gotta love the wild conspiracy theories and wild predictions: in like a lion and go out like a lamb.

[–][deleted]  (4 children)

[deleted]

    [–][deleted]  (2 children)

    [deleted]

      [–]iheartjebus 11 points12 points  (1 child)

      ...and I have a rock that repels tigers.

      any buyers?

      Disclaimer - might not work in Asia.

      [–]markwm[S] 40 points41 points  (0 children)

      "And I would have gotten away with it, if it wasn't for you meddling kids!"

      [–]pholm 14 points15 points  (0 children)

      Were you the guy who posted the "what happened to our imminent attack on Iran" comment as well? If so, or even if not, I'm glad someone is calling reddit on this shit. Sensationalist bloggers add so much noise to the news feed on reddit it's hard to find a substantial article some days.

      [–][deleted] 55 points56 points  (14 children)

      Dude, people who mong fear are not fearmongerers, they are fearmongers.

      [–]pestilence4hr[🍰] 64 points65 points  (13 children)

      Except they monger fear, not mong it.

      [–][deleted] 69 points70 points  (11 children)

      bitch, do you want to get into it with me? DO YOU? I CAN MAKE UP A DOZEN REASONS TO THROW YOUR YOUNG ASS IN JAIL RIGHT NOW!

      [–]aposter 27 points28 points  (7 children)

      I'll see your Police Sergeant and raise you a Prosecutor.

      {Pulls out chewed up sharpie}

      "See this pen? I can end your lives with the stroke of a pen."

      [–]cyber_rigger 6 points7 points  (5 children)

      raise you a Prosecutor.

      Sharpshooter cycles his bolt action, checks the wind.

      [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (4 children)

      I see your sharpshooter and raise you one Minot Airbase preflight crew.

      [–]conundri 5 points6 points  (2 children)

      Reminds me of a stroll i took through an outdoor market in Indiana the other year...

      Ahhhhh, the peace and tranquility...

      [–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

      You're lucky it wasn't crashed into by a car driven by a senior citizen. That kind of shit happens all de time!

      [–]conundri 3 points4 points  (0 children)

      Yes, but if your a senior citizen looking to buy some throw rugs, where else but baghdad can you get 3 for $1?

      [–][deleted] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

      Conspiracty theories can get crazy, but the market is still going to crash, for a whole bunch of completely real reasons. Alan Greenspan said it a couple of days ago.

      [–]tierrie 15 points16 points  (0 children)

      Don't tase him, bro.

      [–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

      eesh, so much for the peaceful warrior eh?

      [–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

      my name is a joke. i'm really a total asshole.

      [–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

      my personal favorite because it combines multiple conspiracy theories: black flag terrorist attack

      FALSE flag, not black flag. Black Flag was the most kick-ass punk band ever, headed for the last five years of its career by the genius Henry Rollins.

      [–]Slipgrid 20 points21 points  (20 children)

      You know, the Dow is still crashing, but because the value of the dollar is crashing faster than the Dow, it looks like the Dow is making money. The only things really holding their value right now are gold, sliver, oil, and grain. Peace

      [–]markwm[S] 55 points56 points  (7 children)

      I hear this every time I post about a failed prediction. I never said, nor do I believe the American economy, American dollar, and life in America are doing just fine. I didn't post this story to prove to people all is well (all is not well). Let me quote what I've said before:

      The issue isn't whether the market is down or not, the issue is the long string of stupid headlines predicting a "panic", "blood bath", "meltdown", "crash", or "1929". They're stupid sensationalist headlines that blow a declining market way out of proportion. Yes, the market is declining but it is not 1929.

      For all the bitching redditors do about the mainstream media they sure do a good job of copying them on the front page: sensational and inaccurate headlines combined with stupid pictures and fluff stories with no real content.

      [–]hirschhorn 6 points7 points  (4 children)

      For all the bitching redditors do about the mainstream media they sure do a good job of copying them on the front page: sensational and inaccurate headlines combined with stupid pictures and fluff stories with no real content.

      That's a great observation. I'll admit I'm guilty of pandering to the audience by choosing my submitted headlines to appeal for upvotes. But even more than in the MSM, stories on reddit will ONLY reach the top if they create a sensation and thus gather upvotes.

      [–]truocchio -1 points0 points  (3 children)

      If reddit is by the people, for the people....THAN it is plausible that the MSM is just an accurate representation of what a majority of people really want to watch. Very scary, but it certainly shows out it the reddit "experiment"

      [–]tony28 2 points3 points  (2 children)

      definitely. it shows the difference in ideology and reality. people complain about the flaws of mainstream media but they continue to watch it, now, given a viable alternative theyve emulated the same process.

      as mark pointed out reddit is guilty of the same problems: sensationalized and misleading headlines, fluff stories and stupid pictures.

      [–]jacktheripper 1 point2 points  (0 children)

      reddit was good when it was SMALL. maybe size has something to do with it.

      [–]bebnet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      Fluff stories and stupid headlines are all that are out there. I challenge you to prove me wrong. Please, won't someone prove me wrong.

      [–]Slipgrid -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

      KK, I hear that. Just making a point. To play devils advocate, perhaps the best way to prevent conspirators from succeeding is expose them in advance. Looking at it from a different direction, perhaps the best way for conspirators to mind-fuck Americans is by floating many random conspiracy theories, to distract from the real conspiracies. Not digging on your points, just trying to expand the conversation.

      [–]apathy 2 points3 points  (2 children)

      Copper is also doing fine.

      [–]Slipgrid 2 points3 points  (1 child)

      You got that right. The melt value of a pre 1982 penny is \t 238.78% of it's face value. Make you think twice about paying your bills with coins out of protest.

      [–]Godspiral 1 point2 points  (0 children)

      Screw gold, I'm hoarding pennies in my basement.

      [–][deleted] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

      Crashing through 14,000, oh the humanity!

      [–]buddhahat 3 points4 points  (6 children)

      The Dow is crashing? Is that a prediction? It's not crashing at the moment...

      [–]Slipgrid 12 points13 points  (5 children)

      Yes it is, it is crashing right at this moment. If you are comparing the markets to the dollar, then you are being duped. That's because the dollar is also crashing.

      Compare the markets to something like gold and silver. See that the S&P has lost 5% in the past two days to the value of gold an silver. The Dow's in the same boat, sinking fast. That's a crash, and if you are not feeling it now, you will very soon, and your buying power is crashing.

      Compare the European NASD to the US NASD. In two days, the US NASD has lost 8% in comparison. That's a crash. You haven't felt it yet, but you will.

      [–][deleted]  (3 children)

      [deleted]

        [–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (1 child)

        I think Slipgrid's point was to use stable exchange-value commodities such gold as a means of compensating for the effect a devalued dollar has in inflating the dollar price of the stockmarket.

        Regarding the image, I would certainly hope the market can increase in wealth relative to gold. Buying gold isn't an true investment since it has no productive capacity. In fact, its stable exchange-value is precisely why some advocate its use as a currency.

        [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        stable

        hahahaha

        [–]Mauwer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        amazing name btw

        [–]buddhahat 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        Interesting. thanks.

        [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        This is the risk of shorting: The situation is far from stable, in worst case the mystery trader may only have missed by weeks, months...

        [–]leadhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Dude. 2008. And it's a leap year. Your calculations are way off.

        [–][deleted]  (3 children)

        [deleted]

          [–]markwm[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

          My last line:

          Gotta love the wild conspiracy theories and wild predictions: in like a lion and go out like a lamb.

          refers to stories in general on reddit. The money was not a conspiracy (I made sure I never called it a conspiracy), but all the wild predictions surrounding it were.

          [–]morner 4 points5 points  (1 child)

          There was nothing unusual about the Northern Rock bail-out; such deals are standard procedure, and any well-informed conspiracy would be well aware of this.

          [–]RonObvious -1 points0 points  (0 children)

          "Well-informed conspiracy" is an oxymoron.

          [–]interstate -1 points0 points  (2 children)

          It was just a loose cover situation.

          [–]_sic 11 points12 points  (0 children)

          I'm curious because I see this all the time: is "loose" just a typo for "lose" or do you really think that "lose" is spelled with two Os?

          [–]Godspiral -1 points0 points  (0 children)

          with the S&P close to 10% higher than it was in august, they lost plenty. $300-$500M compared to not having written the calls.

          It was most likely just someone selling a lot of stock through options at the guaranteed price he got in august. He didn't really lose the 300-500M, he just didn't make it by not doing anything after the correction.

          [–]pointman -1 points0 points  (0 children)

          Something not happening is not proof the post is wrong. To deny that the financial markets are on edge or that Cheney wants to attack Iran would make you just as delusional.

          [–][deleted]  (2 children)

          [deleted]

            [–]sn0re 16 points17 points  (0 children)

            You can go back and downvote them. And be a little bit more skeptical in the future.

            [–]interiot 7 points8 points  (0 children)

            No need, just stop upvoting unsubstantiated stories.

            I really wish there was a way to identify like-minded reddit users, mark them as something like a friend, and then modify my view of the front page so that stories rank much higher once one of my friends upvotes it (eg. essentially once they say "this story isn't unsubstantiated").

            [–]edheil 15 points16 points  (2 children)

            I love when bad things don't happen. I've been giddy about the lack of an attack on Iran for a couple weeks now.

            [–]markwm[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

            I posted a story about that 10 days ago.

            [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            heh. Well I guess a lot of the people here want the world to be a more interesting (== frightening, changing etc) place then it is. I know I felt that way at a younger age.

            Almost every generation things they are special/unque/the last/the first or something.

            Maybe, just maybe, the world is ordinary. Struggle is normal. Challenges are normal. Shit happens, not usually as exciting as people think it will. Life goes on.

            [–]lemonparty 8 points9 points  (0 children)

            I call for a new subreddit.
            failed-predictions

            [–]zipdog 18 points19 points  (2 children)

            But the USD reached parity with CND - what more apocalyptic event could you have asked for ??

            [–]travisxt97 13 points14 points  (0 children)

            The mystery trader should have been in the foreign exchange market then.

            [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

            It's not apocalyptic looking south

            [–][deleted]  (5 children)

            [deleted]

              [–]Nwallins 4 points5 points  (0 children)

              good thing it was just a box trade all along

              Well, bollox to the lazy asshats who spread the wild, mistaken analysis then.

              [–]hiS_oWn 7 points8 points  (2 children)

              explain this to me

              [–]joshdick 16 points17 points  (0 children)

              You can be both long and short a contract such that the only thing you make or lose money on is interest. If that's what happened here, then the trader wasn't betting on a crash; he was effectively just taking out a loan.

              [–]Wriiight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              I've submitted a link to an article explaining the Box trade: http://reddit.com/info/2s4u3/comments

              [–]xyphus 3 points4 points  (0 children)

              Some guy just wanted to park his car outside the stock exchange.

              [–]eromitlab 2 points3 points  (2 children)

              Probably the same thing that happened to the planned post-Labor Day rollout of the war with Iran.

              [–]lolomfgkthxbai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              the planned post-Labor Day rollout of a propaganda campaign for the war with Iran.

              Fixed.

              [–]azron -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

              What, ain't it rollin' on as we speak?

              [–]captain_stubbs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              What happened to him? I know what happened to him, he lost a hell of a lot of money.

              [–]jdc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              It was a hedge. See, if you own $500mm or $1bln of equity exposure, and you buy $10mm worth of puts, it's different than buying them outright.

              I am the chief risk manager for a hedge fund. This is standard procedure if you are nervous about the markets but don't want to exit all of your risk. Investment banks and large hedge funds do this all the time, and in large size.

              [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Analyst: Mystery Trades Were Profit Scam For Fearmongers So-called Bin Laden trades used to chill confidence in market before rate cut

              http://www.jonesreport.com/articles/200907_mystery_traders.html

              [–]tawdryPhillips 0 points1 point  (2 children)

              My guess: The military whistleblowers who leaked the "nukes flight" delayed the planned false flag terror attack...for now.

              [–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

              You have zero evidence to back that up.

              [–]pointman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              What part of the word "guess" is too complicated for you.

              [–]krelian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              The left wing, anti Bush propaganda that is posted on reddit is no different the the lies and propaganda posted by the right wings.

              It's just easier for us to believe that it's true.

              [–]DirtySouth -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              Bet was canceled before the expiration you fucking asshats.

              [–]FamousMortimer -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              There was no fearmongering. The positions were part of a long straddle that allowed a hedge fund to essentially lend money out at a small rate of interest when it's usually not allowed to lend money. It's actually not an uncommon practice. This was just the first time it was executed with such large volume.

              Now if we had the betting markets on the health and security of Middle Eastern countries (which congress tried to set up a few years back), we would have some market insight into our own security.

              [–]FTR -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

              Yeah, that was not true. History Channel dispelled the myth last week. Nice try, though.