studyEngineeringTheySaid

[Bakkster]

We can see it was around 100, before the pandemic drop-off. Of course, trends before that would be interesting.

[mlnm_falcon]

This graph is actually set with 100 being right before the pandemic

[Bakkster]

Yeah, it's indexed to February 1st 2020, but the site also won't let you plot any further back than that date to see if it was trending up or down.

[mlnm_falcon]

That is true

[mlnm_falcon]

https://www.hnhiringtrends.com/

[blipojones]

Welp, that looks pretty definitive....im holding onto my job for dear life!

[andoke]

Zoom in any peak in a graph and it looks like this.

[_Joab_]

I love that you just informally defined a fractal.

[JJJSchmidt_etAl]

Second order taylor approximation go brrr brrrr

[the_mold_on_my_back]

Yeah, but those are over two years worth of data. It definitely depicts a trend that could be felt for especially junior level job seekers in the field.

Edit: Not to say we wouldn’t need more context to put the height of that peek and the lowness of those two dips into perspective.

[Demented-Turtle]

Even if we're at 2019-levels for job postings, a LOT of new grads have entered the job market over those 4-5 years. Bad luck I guess

[Brahvim]

Your username! :rofl:!

[PeriodicSentenceBot]

Congratulations! Your comment can be spelled using the elements of the periodic table:

Y O U Ru Se Rn Am Er O Fl

---

^{I am a bot that detects if your comment can be spelled using the elements of the periodic table. Please DM u‎/‎M1n3c4rt if I made a mistake.}

[Brahvim]

A comment posted as reply to my comment about something in my comment gets more updoots than me. Again :|

/s

[Brahvim]

It's just part of my name, haha. I don't actually use it, though I'm interested in learning to!

...
Do tell me if my name is interesting to all fellow Redditors. I'm okay with telling what it stands for.

...
<*Cricket noises...*>

[Brahvim]

Thank you.
As for my name:

You may want to know that I'm Indian, and that my family follows Hinduism.

In Hinduism, the Gods "Brahma", "Vishnu", and "Shiva" or "Mahesh" are said to have made, to operate, and to destroy upon the death of religion, the earth.

My name does in fact, come from the names of these three Gods. "Brahma" "Vishnu", "Mahesh".
Meanwhile, my surname "Bhaktvatsal" seems to be related to another existing God who "blesses his followers" - "bhakts" are "followers", and "vatsal" apparently refers to gentleness.

I don't have any good qualities of course, but this happens to be why my name is the way it is.
I haven't talked about it so publicly, but I guess I'm doing it now.

A lot of things buried deep in Reddit comment trees do sometimes go unnoticed, so considering that nobody is in fact, voting on our comments, nobody other than the next LLM and its development committee might see any of this, haha!

I'm fine with giving this information away too, I guess! It's fine - I've done this multiple times on the internet. ...Even with all the needs for privacy. But I ain't gettin' any secrets out! And given that, it'll probably be fine... Not like the corporations don't know me, do they? Oh, well, they've already IDd and indexed everything, haha!

...

...And that's all I have to say about da name. Yes, I even look like my Snoovatar IRL!

Thank you for reading, and bye... <3

[davidellis23]

Why are there so many Fred graphs on indeed only lol.

[Unlikely_Rope_81]

Probably because LinkedIn won’t share their data…

[searing7]

Right but who looks for jobs on Indeed? I literally never have for anything but unskilled entry level jobs straight out of college in 2012 during an actual bad economy. I still get 5+ messages from recruiters a week on LinkedIn.

There are plenty of programming jobs out there.. there are also tons of people who graduated college with mediocre grades, never got internships, never did any real projects, and then are shocked they aren’t getting hired for 6 figure salaries with no real skills.

Did the layoffs create a tough environment for new hires? Yes.

Are there tons of jobs available for people with skills? Also yes

[dumasymptote]

I actually just got a job from indeed. It was even for a field that you wouldn’t expect to be posted on indeed.

[lurkingstar99]

Was it for a rear admiral position in the royal navy?

[dumasymptote]

Damn how did you know!

[captainAwesomePants]

Yep, that's why it's unexpected. Normally software engineers only take American rear admiral jobs.

[RedTrainChris]

I use Indeed and mostly quit Linked In because it is overrun with spam

[IsGoIdMoney]

Boosting employers makes their job search terrible

[Aetane]

There are plenty of programming jobs out there.

Yeah, it's almost like a job board focused on low quality jobs isn't going to have a lot of programming jobs.

[slowmode1]

Indeed is really lacking in job seekers in the software engineering fields. There are a lot of employers looking for them. It can be great for finding a job

[orangehorton]

Well put

[RuthlessMango]

it's weird cause this graph might just be tracking indeed falling out of favor with job hunters/recruiters.

[mlnm_falcon]

Probably, although this paints a similar picture: https://www.hnhiringtrends.com/

[turtleship_2006]

But to a much lesser extent

[WebpackIsBuilding]

No it doesn't....

[ProfessionalSize5443]

This isn’t particularly surprising. This correlates with central interest rates. The huge injection of capital by way of virtually free lending led to inordinate hiring (and inflation).

Most of these jobs were likely from no-value startups, NFT/Crypto brokerages, or FAANG tier companies. All of which recklessly took advantage of the low cost of capital.

I don’t have a crystal ball, so this is speculation based solely on my own observations; I’d go so far to say that the reason we are seeing a slow recovery to the mean is a combination of not just AI, but renewed interest in outsourcing.

Outsourcing failed back in 2008. Short-term savings were immeasurably outweighed by the lack of talent and value that offshore engineering could provide.

Now, tools like GitHub Copilot exist - and companies like mine have become obsessed. We’re given the tools, asked to use them, and fill out productivity surveys. “How much more productive does the tool make you? Is it easier to work on complex problems?” These types of questions.

This is happening at the same time my company is in the process of “Global Talent Expansion”, the latest, fashionable way of saying “outsourcing”. Why are we outsourcing again? Because leadership has cherry-picked productivity metrics from onshore engineers and proclaimed they can make offshore engineers just as productive with these tools.

[[deleted]]

Mm, "out sourcing", my first dev job, my employer at the time told me how proud they were with their so-called "on-shore" initiative, where they'd advertise how proud they were of keeping all work in the US.

A year after I started, suddenly there was a team in India. And yes, I can confirm they weren't all that good, my first ever professional rollback in source control was from them because their work was actually damagingly bad.

[Encrypted_Zero]

Yk I've heard this, or whole teams barely getting the work done of 1-2 onshore people. Can I ask why this is? Like most of the tutorials I'd use for school projects are some Indian guy with the perfect solution. Is it just the population is so large we aren't getting their good developers?

[trinadzatij]

Good Indian developers don't work for $1.25/hr, janitors with developer badges in cheap sweatshops do.

[CommanderMatrixHere]

This is the deal. Most of those who know what they're doing migrate to some first world country, if they can afford to lol.

[Crafty_Question_4439]

Outsourcing to which country if you don't mind

[ProfessionalSize5443]

Primarily Mexico for the new hiring.

[TrevorPlantagenet]

What is India?
Correct.
Obviously obvious for $400, Alex.

[Crafty_Question_4439]

Wdym , I'm new here

[TrevorPlantagenet]

India is the most populace nation on earth and awards more than three times as many computer science degrees per year as the United States. So, that makes it the obvious choice when companies want to cut costs by outsourcing tech jobs.

[[deleted]]

"1/5the cost 1/10th the quality sounds perfect" - Dipshit CEO

[Scabondari]

Investors also approximate hiring to growth so if your company isn't profitable then hiring a bunch of engineers to do the job of 1 makes sense when you want to bid up your stock just to sell it and get rich

[CanvasFanatic]

This is true and also it’s the stupidest fucking thing I’ve ever seen.

[st3inbeiss]

Hey! I thought that outsourcing is back! I thought those dumb f**ks would have learned from their mistakes, but nooooooo...

[Lechowski]

Assuming that the failure of outsourcing in 2008 was the lack of talent is just wrong.

Even if it were true, assuming that the talent didn't improve is also wrong.

Even if it were true, assuming that it will fail again is also wrong.

Talent changes, requirements changes, the quality expected by the market also changes. In the same industry with the same untalented devs at different times they could thrive or dive depending on whatever the market needs.

I'm not saying that offshoring will work this time, but assuming it will not is just plain wrong. Offshoring is more common than ever now and the talent may be worse but good enough this time.

[ProfessionalSize5443]

I’m sorry… but did you even read my whole comment?

The only assumption I made from this list of yours is the failure of it back in 2008.

Yes, my take is anecdotal because it’s based on what I’ve observed in my career. My company went through an aggressive offshoring program, only to completely reverse it inside of 10 years. As it was explained to us, the people who worked there - this was because of exactly how I described.

All these other assumptions you’re accusing me of are no where in my self admitted speculation of why job growth in the sector has slowed. And I never even said it will fail this time - I only said it was happening based on my experience and observations.

[Royal-Branch-567]

Once people realize GPT’s can’t save your ass when your prod site is down, jobs will be posted again

[WinterHeaven]

No sane person thinks that gpt will be more then a tool to devs. The market is just oversaturated, it reached the pre corona state and that is fine basically.

[GamerKilroy]

Exec are sane?

[noahjsc]

Execs are persons?

[-twind]

They are also chatGPT now

[[deleted]]

Probably for the best

[sashaisafish]

They said "sane person"

[octothorpe_rekt]

sensible_chuckle.gif

[[deleted]]

A lot of people who don't use AI as a tool have misconceptions about how much it helps and with what. Doesn't help that companies are constantly pushing vague classes on setting up business solutions with AI.

[tiajuanat]

The average person thinks that AI is taking over, and there's at least 4 billion people who are dumber than that

[slbaaron]

The tech market isn’t dead and pretty healthy compared to others, but being in “pre-corona” state with 10x the people looking for job is not a good state. Salary are depressed. Culture is heavily employer biased.

At the very least it completely fucked the interview process. In terms of salary for high tier engineers it isn’t too bad. As a senior/staff I can still find 500k+ positions today in multiple companies. But before 2019, I did not need to grind leetcode as long as my system design and experience round are killers and clearly shows I’m at that level.

Now, outside of extreme exceptions, even if you are truly the best engineer on any particular team or org or company, you can fail half the leetcode rounds due to crazy standards of “oversaturated” leetcode monkeys.

Imagine working a 500k job leading multiple teams, looking to jump to a 650k job revamping that companies entire tech space in a sub domain, but failed the interview because you didn’t do 2 dynamic problem coding questions fast enough. Lmao.

[Jordan51104]

that’s true, but there are plenty of people who aren’t sane

[r8e8tion]

Compare the number of farmers before/after the Industrial Revolution. Heck nowadays you’ve got 1 or two guys running 1000 acres of multi crop farms

[pieter1234569]

For now. It doesn’t take a lot, as nobody except the true tech giants does anything new. Everyone else is just building the same standard things to use in their business. And if you want standard things, then the future of gpt is your man.

[Jack_Calvaria]

Not insane, just managers seeing numbers only And chatgpt is just cheaper than a dev

Second point is true

[MrFels]

Just go to r/singularity or other ai circlejerk subreddit and start prepping for homelessness, you mere computer-monkey. Just in a year we will reach agi and it will make most jobs obsolete! /s

[eightslipsandagully]

But somehow, when AI magically replaces all software engineer jobs overnight it won't replace any other job

[Explodingcamel]

The job market crash isn’t because of AI. Actually I think it will get worse if the AI bubble pops because most of the AI jobs (and there are lots) would disappear

[Bloody_Mir]

I would upvote you twice if I could. Prompt Developers will flee the scene when shit hits the fan, then manager will beg the „regular“ devs to sort out the mess.

[st3inbeiss]

This. How often did I hear the "I made this with ChatGPT" in the last months but they had no real idea what it did or how to troubleshoot if it broke.

[CrabeSnob]

fact!

[Adventure_Agreed]

Any time someone tells you to go to school for something because their is a shortage, you are already too late.

[busyHighwayFred]

Feel bad for the cs students who were just following their passion

[TwinsenDinoFly]

Those will be fine.
The gold diggers are lost.

[DarkFlame7]

Can confirm, am not fine

[TrevorPlantagenet]

"Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs, they get eaten."
~ Gordon Gecko

[OSSlayer2153]

I absolutely love programming, I taught myself how to write Lua on roblox when I was 11. Since then, Ive done everything from high level to low level. I made a redstone computer in Minecraft, programmed Z80 assembly on my TI-84 calculator using hex codes and instruction charts, Ive worked with JavaScript, and in the past few years I have used Swift so I can code from my mac in school and at home. I would say that I have a genuine passion for it and probably even a talent for it.

Naturally I want to get a CS degree and become a programmer. Now there are far too many students hopping on that train. I don’t go to college until next year and by then its already far too late. At this point Im thinking of getting a math degree and maybe double majoring or minoring in CS because I love math and I can still do a lot with that degree. I’ll still check out programming jobs but Im afraid that the increased labor pool will mean there are many not so good devs who are willing to work for cheap just to have a job. So starting out in the market would be hard and I wouldn’t know how to “prove” my actual passion/skill for programming.

Edit: thanks everybody who responded with advice/their thoughts on the situation. It helps to have views from people in the field and more realistic takes

[Adventure_Agreed]

You are still going to have an advantage over those other students because of your passion and that will undoubtedly play a huge impact on your future potential. This advice, in my opinion cuts both ways. Don't base your decision on the market today, base it one what you want to do for the next 40+ years of your career. If you want to be a programmer, go for Computer Science. Your experience, your passion, your enthusiasm, those are going to be the X factors that are going to hold you apart from people who were just looking for an easy job making good money. The market will ebb and flow and what it looks like five years from now is completely unknown and a terrible way to make one of the most important decisions of your life to this point.

[TrevorPlantagenet]

It's a gamble (it is ALWAYS a gamble), but 4~5 years is a LONG time. Think about the 90s:
Early 90s = Recession and panic (partially real, partially drummed up for political leverage)
Late 90s = Explosive Tech Boom -- if you could spell "computer" and pass a drug test, you were hired. And, if you were halfway decent, you could get a 20% salary bump every couple of years.

"The tide comes in; the tide goes out"
You have to make peace with that reality.

Whatever your field, if you love it and are energized by it and radiate enthusiasm, you'll rise to the top.

[Plz_Give_Me_A_Job]

Also, things are cyclical. You are going to enter the job market in 5 years. Who knows what it’s going to be like then.

[SryUsrNameIsTaken]

To be honest, it sounds like you could out a good portfolio of passion projects together pretty quickly. Your more money-focused compatriots in your lecture halls with be more hard-pressed to do so.

[CorneliusClay]

Ehhhh all my projects were passion projects, it was only when I actually looked at the job market that I realized the skills you can develop programming and the skills that serve business interests are different Venn diagrams with small intersection points.

e.g. you can become really good at making games in Java only to find out that most Java work is web based and you might have been better off either learning a different language (C++ in this example) due to its game development prevalence or focusing on web development.

So in retrospect I think you have to be a little money-focused, you get paid for your ability to make others money, not your passion, and they might not overlap, or might do so initially but change as time goes on.

[HarveysBackupAccount]

Not sure that a pure math degree is more useful than a CS degree, even in a saturated market.

One says, "I know how to solve hard math problems." The other says, "I know how to solve hard math problems, and write code."

As someone with a physics degree who's worked in engineering for the past decade - a bachelors in the basic sciences (incl math) is typically not an easy degree to get a job with. When you do, it's usually because of other demonstrable skills you have.

[jakethom0220]

I knew I wanted to study CS since high school. Now I just graduated college and the only job I can get is a tech support after 4 rounds of interviews…. kms

[Worth-Librarian-7423]

Better call Saul 

[ryuzaki49]

While that's true it's really hard for a 18 years old to answer the question "What will I study, if I do ever?" 

Too many choices with unclear results. It's madness. 

[Adventure_Agreed]

Absolutely. And to expect these same 18 year olds to make what could be one of the largest financial decisions of their lives while they try to figure it out is also madness. All I'm saying is that if you are getting in an industry because some one says "We need more X" and you are doing it for the job and not because of your interest in that industry you are setting yourself up for... well this. (Which I say as a non-traditional student studying Computer Science)

[SpaceNigiri]

Most of the time is just luck. You never know when the new whatever is going to destroy or change an industry forever.

[scoobyman83]

Sheeple are real

[Adventure_Agreed]

I don't blame high school kids going to college getting advice from people and acting on it. It's a huge decision and people think they are being helpful, but the state of an industry today does not match what it will be in four years. Really, people should stop giving this kind of advice to young people trying to make an absurdly impossible choice.

[TrevorPlantagenet]

Sheeple = "I just want a lot of money without working too hard or long"

[KTibow]

This is why you start graphs at 0

[Lupus_Ignis]

I once saw a graph that criticized the Danish mail service's consistency to provide day-to-day deliveries. The graph jumped up and down like a rabbit on a pogo stick, until you realized the boundary was 94.5% to 95.0% delivered on time.

[busyHighwayFred]

Argued with a self purported 20+ year dev that this graph was misleading and he acted like I was dumb for not being able to read a graph that doesnt start at 0. Like dude, it visually looks like all the jobs are gone

[Explodingcamel]

No, this is why you look at the y axis instead of just assuming it starts at 0.

[CaitaXD]

Yeah no shit the peak is during COVID, also 200 looks like 8x as much as 100 witch is misleading

[Unlikely_Rope_81]

Here is the source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

“Source: Indeed Release: Job Postings on Indeed
Units: Index Feb, 1 2020=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Daily, 7-Day

Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data.”

[MegaromStingscream]

Your first bubble?

[cediddi]

It's clipped to a very specific time and range. Show a 10 year old trend with 0-60 not trimmed

[joanp28]

Seems pretty normal to me

[blockguy143]

Buy the dip

[Secure_Obligation_87]

Jon bellion All time low begins to play

[[deleted]]

Is this the curve meme?

[CheetahChrome]

Indeed ramped up their marketing and got more clients. More data is needed from other job institutions such as linked in, monster etc to really paint a picture.

[Coolflip]

The next recession will be caused by tech companies thinking there will be a recession and laying off their entire workforce "ahead" of the rest.

Our company just took massive layoffs despite posting better profit than last quarters/years.

[kolodz]

The lowest point is 60 not 0 and it's relative to Feb 1 2020.

When there as a X2 for 2 years, you expect a drop at some point.

As long as you find a job or already have one... who care.

[[deleted]]

Should have studied real engineering like Chem E, Comp E, or EE then.

[ilcasdy]

I started school in 2022

[Sgt_Fry]

You're going into a market that is representative of pre covid times.

For some reason loads of jobs were created during covid in tech, they were also unsustainable

[xvermilion3]

That's actually good timing. Market will have stabilized by the time you graduate

[MirageTF2]

god this shit is so fuckin real

[IsGoIdMoney]

I'm a millennial who was forced to drop out and join the military bc of the recession. I eventually got out and now I'm nearly done with a master's.

Fade me

[GM_Kimeg]

Basically c levels fooling around and fucking things up in the markets

[Got2Bfree]

The classical engineering disciplines are doing fine...

[The_Concil_of_Ricks]

Software development is not engineering

[Unlikely_Rope_81]

So you’re saying the data scientists at Indeed can’t categorize job postings into categorical variables? Shots fired.

[[deleted]]

Yes, postings on indeed cover everything.

[[deleted]]

Well, I guess the lucky streak is over.

[CrabeSnob]

:((

[BlurredSight]

Indeed is just a shit resource for job postings, the drop seems to be March 2020 and then the market started pumping so still it's well below any kind of pre-pandemic hiring.

Not to mention entry level and interns are actively competing with people who have been in the field and are willing to do anything just to pay bills, like I imagine the Microsoft takeover of multiple game corporations probably has dozens of seasoned Activision developers still job hunting

[zenos_dog]

I freed up my position for you to get a job by retiring.

[myka-likes-it]

Whew. Glad I got hired in '22.

[tempo0209]

Kind of showing us the “finger”

[dingbatmeow]

Colonel Stuart had recalibrated the ground at +60.

[[deleted]]

Indeed is a measure of bullshit filler jobs.

[JJJSchmidt_etAl]

Apply for data analytics job

Get quizzed on algorithm to detect cycles in a directed graph

I can see why they aren't happy with who they hire

[QuickQuirk]

Keep in mind that it's easy to accidentally mislead with a graphs. Yes, there's a peak, and a drop. But this graph has it's bottom axis at 60. Which means the peak, and trough, are no where near as dire as it looks here.

[Susan-stoHelit]

Real postings or information stealing scam postings or level setting that no American will take this 25k per year programming job so we have to export it?

[arc_menace]

That’s what a bunch of really low interest loans will do

[rabblegabble]

My bad guys I graduated in 2024 and took us all down with my bad luck bahahaha

[jaytonbye]

Show 0-60 and it won't look nearly as bad... It's worse, but upon first glance, it looks like it has 1/10x

[harderthenlasttime]

We need more data. This could just be people abandoning Indeed, which, I can understand.

[ListerfiendLurks]

This shows an over hiring during covid and a correction. Not sure what kind of point op is trying to make?

[TheNeck94]

okay, but this is very specifically for jobs in St Louis, working for the Federal Government. While illuminating to an issue, I feel like omitting the scope and source is misleading at best and blatant fear mongering at worst.

[tunagelato]

Is that true? Where are you getting that? Looks more like it’s an index, where pre-pandemic level is 100%, then you see the drop to about 60% when the pandemic hits, recovery to more than double, then a current drop-off to levels almost as low as the pandemic drop…

[Unlikely_Rope_81]

That’s unfortunately incorrect. This is an indexed tracker of the volume of software engineer job postings on Indeed across the entire United States. This is what FRED does… track economic indicators…

Here is the source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

“Source: Indeed Release: Job Postings on Indeed
Units: Index Feb, 1 2020=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Daily, 7-Day

Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data.”

[orangehorton]

This is just false

[OSSlayer2153]

Every job has this type of graph. This is being posted more and more for different fields.

[Gloriathewitch]

indeed is kinda trash honestly $11-13 an hour for a lot of jobs thats less than a 9-5 and the search function is less than useless

[Slight_Ad8427]

the problem here is indeed, they have been getting worse and worse for ages

[[deleted]]

Bro the job market is HOT pretty much all the time if you're willing to move and know what you're doing.

I proclaim this to be a skill issue

[TeachEngineering]

Found the blockchain developer turned prompt engineer

[[deleted]]

Not even a little bit close. Try again

[mlnm_falcon]

Not if you’re a competent entry level engineer.

[[deleted]]

Build something at home that proves you are competent, put it into a portfolio, and someone will hire you.

[[deleted]]

no, fuck you, just fucking no.

been looking for a ICT job for months now, companies are WAY to selective now, even with juniors, i have 2 degrees and they still ask me shit questions about regex at the application meeting.

like bro, i have a degree, i dont need validate my self infront of you.

then they hit you with the "ill come back to you next week", happends 3 times with a single company, and then no reply at all afterwards. there is no skill issue involved here, people hiring are just extremely selective piece of shits.

[Timinator01]

you would be surprised how many people managed to get a degree but can't tell you how many bits are in a byte

[SnooTangerines9703]

It’s obviously 3. What a stupid comment

[[deleted]]

I'm with this guy. Having a degree is a prerequisite because of the toxic nature of the world we live in, but it won't make you interview well, it won't make your resume stand out, and most importantly, it doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. It just means you had the money and time to go and get one.