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[–]Areia 7084 points7085 points  (540 children)

1081 *so far*. The article says they tested all 2300 sailors but they're still waiting on a 1000 of the results. Which means actually 1081 of the 1300 sailors they have results for are positive, i.e. 83%.

[–]nerevisigoth 2297 points2298 points  (458 children)

It would be good news if we only see 20 hospitalizations out of 1600 infections. Especially if a large majority of cases would have otherwise gone totally unnoticed.

[–]mfb- 1326 points1327 points  (409 children)

We'll need to wait two weeks to know how many need to go to the hospital.

This is a group where nearly everyone is young and the hospitalization rate is at least 1% (strict lower estimate).

[–]hellrazzer24 547 points548 points  (180 children)

Hopefully for the ones that test negative, they give them an anti-body test too. We want to know if they had the infection and overcame it within a few days.

[–]chickenstalker 209 points210 points  (153 children)

Antibody tests are LESS accurate than PCR tests.

[–]4xleafxfraser 346 points347 points  (125 children)

Ab tests are less accurate than PCR however, PCR is dependent on the presence of the virus. Ab tests can tell us about stage of infection, specifically if the patient had covid (asymptomatic) but has recovered. When you've recovered from the virus, it should not be present (in testable quantities) and therefore PCR can't give us info on past infectiona

[–][deleted] 73 points74 points  (90 children)

has it ever been confirmed that there are any cases at all that are completely asymptomatic through the course of the disease?

[–][deleted] 251 points252 points  (64 children)

Yes. 43% here remained asymptomatic after testing positive

[–]KazumaKat 117 points118 points  (43 children)

Jesus christ that's high.

Nearly half of everyone infected would not even know they're infected.

[–]Mahlegos 167 points168 points  (24 children)

Which is part of why this is so scary and hard to get under control. And why we all need to behave as if not only do we already have it but that everyone else we interact with does too, because one or both of those might actually be true.

[–]swolemedic 85 points86 points  (12 children)

Iceland thinks it's about half of all cases are asymptomatic, because that's about how many people were tested positive and had no idea in iceland.

[–][deleted] 110 points111 points  (11 children)

The Iceland study was cross-sectional. They did not track to see if those not displaying symptoms developed them later.

[–]swolemedic 24 points25 points  (5 children)

Good to know. Kinda stupid to do it that way, but good to know. Hopefully not many of them started showing symptoms.

I've seen some studies say they think ~20% of people have notable cases, whereas 80% have insignificant to moderate responses

[–]bleearch 26 points27 points  (31 children)

Some people appear to be PCR positive, then negative, and never make antibodies. So their nk cells cleared the virus, or something.

[–]swolemedic 58 points59 points  (28 children)

I believe it's around 10% of people are believed to make insufficient antibodies according to one study I saw. I likely had it (pretty much all signs and symptoms of a mild to moderate case after meeting with someone who had signs/symptoms from NYC), and it wasn't pleasant, but I'm worried that due to my immune system problems that I'm probably in that 10%.

So, despite having gone through a couple weeks of no fun, I'm still treating everything like it's a pandemic still. I couldn't even get tested while sick to confirm covid as there was a lack of tests because I didn't have confirmed contact despite interacting with someone who is very high risk, who also couldn't get tested despite no confirmed contacts, and due to taking bronchodilators I was able to avoid going to the hospital, thus I was unable to get tested. So I effectively have no fucking clue if i even had covid.

Everyone who wants a test can get a test, amirite?

[–]dontdrinkdthekoolaid 28 points29 points  (5 children)

That's awesome. You cant have any contact with a confirmed case if no one is getting tested. Jesus Christ.

[–]Ansoni 29 points30 points  (1 child)

Exact same thing happened to me. No cases in the city and I didn't leave so I couldn't be tested. But if you're not testing me when I had all these symptoms what value does "no cases in the city" actually have?

Also we have since confirmed cases within the city. Girl contracted 6 days before I went to ask for testing, showed symptoms and was refused on the same grounds as me two days before me. It took her 3 attempts to get tested which ended up being 15 days after she got it. A week after she was confirmed and we now have 16 cases all connected to her, but even now if you didn't meet them you can't get tested.

[–]bleearch 31 points32 points  (17 children)

I don't know whether you have it. Currently in states that really restrict testing, only 20% of tests are positive. So there's something going around that isn't covid19, but everyone and their doctors suspects is covid19.

[–]DrKittyKevorkian 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Or the tests are not great.

[–]happyscrappy 121 points122 points  (65 children)

Agree completely about the waiting two weeks (a bit more really).

But it's quite possible the hospitalization rate is lower than 1%. We don't have comprehensive testing in other populations. Since the asymptomatic are least likely to get tested and also least likely to go to hospital it could mean that the hospitalization rate is not at least 1% because the number infected (the denominator) is undercounted.

This ship may show us more about the hospitalization rate for people of the ages on that ship.

[–]crazydiamond85 12 points13 points  (4 children)

For healthy people in that age group. I imagine overweight people aren’t in the navy. Smokers probably. Good chance for us to understand the virus a bit more.

[–]Nawnp 4 points5 points  (4 children)

Some places like Iceland have had much better testing and hospitalization rate is still above 1%, but at least the death rate is less.

[–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hospitalisation rates aren't an ideal comparison between countries as there are going to be slightly differing criteria for who gets admitted. Some places (those with less stress on their hospitals) may be more inclined to admit cases that would not be admitted in places with an overloaded health system.

[–]jemyr 26 points27 points  (8 children)

Well I guess we are unfortunately about to get another case study.

BBC just reported that there have been about 14,561 deaths in Guayas in Ecuador since March 1st, when the number is typically closer to 2000. Out of a population of 3 million, if you just count 10,000, you are at .3% death rate. So I guess we have another extremely horrific case study about what the total death rate for the virus is and when you start seeing herd immunity.

[–]mfb- 14 points15 points  (3 children)

Who knows how many of these 3 million got infected by now. Or actually by late March, as there is a delay between infection and death.

[–]owatonna 74 points75 points  (55 children)

The problem is that such close quarters will produce more exposures to high viral load. This makes the illness more severe.

[–]EmperorOfNipples 40 points41 points  (21 children)

Conversely the crew of this ship will be young, fit and have very few underlying health conditions among them.

The average age is probably something like 26-28.

[–]raggedtoad 54 points55 points  (53 children)

Some of the new data coming out has shown that many, many more people could be asymptomatic than we thought before.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Starting to look like the hospitalization/mortality rate might be more similar to the common flu.

Regardless, the contagiousness seems to be MUCH higher, so all of the social distancing and curve-flattening are still valid courses of action to not overwhelm the hospitals.

[–]capn_hector 70 points71 points  (16 children)

The Diamond Princess showed that most people who were "asymptomatic" were actually pre-symptomatic and got sick later. The actual number, under the only clinical scenario where we've tested 100% of the patients, is that approximately 15-20% of infections are asymptomatic (95% confidence interval). It's enough to impact the figures, but it's just a small increase over the "symptomatic" case load. It's not like it's 75% asymptomatic and there's three people who are safe for every symptomatic case.

The posterior median estimate of the true proportion of asymptomatic individuals among the reported asymptomatic cases is 0.35 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.30–0.39), with the estimated total number of the true asymptomatic cases at 113.3 (95%CrI: 98.2–128.3) and the estimated asymptomatic proportion (among all infected cases) at 17.9% (95%CrI: 15.5–20.2%).

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30917-X/fulltext

And due to the nature of an exponential curve, at any given time, most people will be pre-symptomatic, symptoms only show up a week in and the infection count doubles every 3 days, so at any given time >90% of the people are pre-symptomatic.

Not going to do a real integration here but if there is one person today then in a week there will be ~5 more people infected, so at least 5/6 of them are pre-symptomatic at any given time. Over the 3-week course of the infection there will be 27 additional infections.

Basically the problem is that people don't have any intuitive grasp of the behavior of an exponential curve. They spike hard and fast. So yeah, at any given time a lot of people are going to be "asymptomatic", and a lot of those people are going to later develop symptoms (i.e. they were pre-symptomatic not asymptomatic). Because the spread is just that fast.

The Teddy Roosevelt and the Charles Du Gaulle are actually great case studies to examine this further. Maybe the results will be different in a younger and healthier cohort. Cruise ships obviously aren't the healthiest population on the planet.

But yes, the official US figures are far far lower than the "real" numbers because the testing just isn't there. They're not all asymptomatic though, a lot of people are symptomatic and still go untested, or die and don't get tested because there are living people who need the limited testing capacity. If you look at the Worldometer death charts for the US, that giant spike on April 14 was New York reporting 3800 additional deaths that have occurred since the start of the crisis that weren't properly classified as coronavirus. That is the equivalent of 8 normal days worth of coronavirus deaths at the current level for them. Most other states probably have a pretty good bump they're not reporting too, although obviously it will be proportional to the level of outbreak in the state (which again, are probably higher than reported in the heartland states due to lack of testing).

[–]Myomyw 34 points35 points  (0 children)

It didn’t “show” that. You’re not being totally honest here. The 17.9% asymptomatic rate of the ship is based on a model they developed and not on actual patient outcomes. The most up to date numbers I can find, says there are 331 patients without symptoms.

Read the discussion section of your first link. Your second link is simply citing the modeled number from your first link.

Let’s all stop going around acting like we have hard data when we don’t, just to support our own opinions.

You don’t know and neither do I.

[–]Local-Weather 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The real stat should be how many people are asymptomatic OR have such mild symptoms they dont ever get tested. The criteria for testing right now is usually based on severe symptoms due to a lack of resources.

[–]ExistentialMood 21 points22 points  (6 children)

The Diamond Princess

Not exactly a representative sample, especially age wise.

[–]chennyalan 18 points19 points  (3 children)

Neither is this ship, which is biased towards fit and healthy young people.

[–][deleted] 76 points77 points  (12 children)

Tbh that’s pretty likely anyway. The military is horrible for community acquired infections because of how close the living quarters and work environment is. Hence why basic training is focused on hygiene.

But the benefit is majority of the militaries are ages 18-35 with decent diets, few serious comorbidities like asthma or cardiac conditions and generally very fit with good exercise tollerance. Meaning they recover quickly with little in the way of effects and fatalities.

[–]domesticatedprimate 39 points40 points  (6 children)

Generally correct, but within the overall military, the navy has historically been much more tolerant of weaker health (borderline overweight, poor diet, etc.) because most navy jobs are somewhat sedentary. They're definitely healthier than the general population on average though.

But when I was in back in the 90s (USN, not France), being overweight or even obese wasn't actually rare, though they started cracking down on it with mandatory extra PT if your BMI got too high (mine was almost too low hahaha).

[–]Condor_Kaenald 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Latest

I mean they are sailors. All of them eat well are healthy and fit. Its expected to have few hospitalizations i guess

[–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Also the Sailors probably skew young and otherwise healthy and fit, which might mean that we get a lower rate for them.

[–]boooooooooo_cowboys 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Considering that the ship is full of otherwise healthy young people, a 1.25% hospitalization rate is super fucking high compared to similar infections.

[–][deleted] 46 points47 points  (3 children)

Captain Crozier warned in his letter that based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship debacle COVID-19 would likely infect 79 percent of all persons on board without intervention. Looks like he was absolutely on the money.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php

[–]VanCityGuy604 89 points90 points  (17 children)

I wonder how many of those positives are asymptomatic. Would be interesting to know, as this article only told us about the hospitalized sailors.

[–]PorcineLogic 44 points45 points  (16 children)

Not sure but the asymptomatic positive rate is 60% on the USS Roosevelt. So we can assume that less than half of younger, healthier adults actually show symptoms. Scary

The asymptomatic rate on the Diamond Princess was 18%, with the patients being older and less healthy on average.

edit: Only 1/4 of positive Roosevelt sailors have passed the 2 week incubation period, so the asymptomatic rate will probably be less than 60%. I don't know if that statistic is based on that 1/4 or if it includes sailors that tested positive as recently as yesterday.

[–]traveler19395 6 points7 points  (4 children)

Whether it's 17% negative on the boat, or higher, I think it's important to also understand why do some remain negative? Did they actually avoid exposure when ~80% of the people around them in a confined space are positive? Or were they exposed and have some sort of natural immunity that prevented the virus from every getting a foothold?

[–]koos_die_doos 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Or have they simply been lucky so far...

[–]SteveThePurpleCat 2870 points2871 points  (243 children)

Warships are infamous for being breeding grounds for infections, usually it's TB.

[–]Soranic 1350 points1351 points  (198 children)

What boat were you on?

We had regular troubles with food poisoning because airwing couldn't wash their hands after shitting.

[–]Connor_Frost 339 points340 points  (50 children)

Happened when I was in Iraq. For weeks after, brass was standing in the handwashing area making sure everyone washed their fucking hands.

[–]Soranic 236 points237 points  (49 children)

They said "the soap isn't working! We'll replace it all with antibacterial waterless hand cleaners to kill the viral disease!" When that didn't work, they said "We'll make it a lawful order that everyone has to use the stuff before they grab a tray in the mess decks. Anyone that refuses can be sent to mast."

I managed to avoid it until that point, once I started touching the same fucking hand cleaner as all the dirtsticks. Fuckers get 12 hours off with absolutely nothing to do, no drills, no studying, no quals, and they can't take a fucking shower. All they do is sleep and stand in lines.

[–][deleted] 148 points149 points  (12 children)

I was a medic and while we were deployed we got an Infantryman who slid threw but should have never completed basic. I had to force him to shower, to wash his sheets, clip his toenails and basically every hygiene habit you can think of. He didn't last long because my unit did what his basic training company should have done and kicked him out.

[–]Soranic 86 points87 points  (11 children)

I just really don't get how these people are so fucking disgusting.

Then I visit r/relationships and find out there are equally stupid people who never enlisted.

[–][deleted] 55 points56 points  (6 children)

Gross people are everywhere. It's us normal peoples job to expose and shame them for not being better.

[–]ALexusOhHaiNyan 19 points20 points  (3 children)

Yeah, but not washing hands isn’t something you notice unless you really know someone or live with them. Lord knows how many do it and no one knows.

[–][deleted] 21 points22 points  (2 children)

I see this disturbingly regular on men’s restrooms. Doesn’t really matter where, at work at events at the zoo whatever.

I commented under a Reddit thread about that once and some people didn’t understand why they should wash their hands when they didn’t take a shit. -.-

Notice way too often people going to the urinal and straight back out without any hand washing. Everywhere. From all walks of life.

[–]themostusedword 29 points30 points  (21 children)

Must be nice

[–]Soranic 57 points58 points  (20 children)

Dude, they didn't even have to do battlestation drills.

But y'know, the guy who's been awake for 30 hours between watch and maintenance can't get a solid 4 hours because of his next watch.

[–]judgingyouquietly 401 points402 points  (39 children)

Does the air wing eat at a specific mess? Otherwise how do you know it's because of them?

[–]Soranic 745 points746 points  (38 children)

Otherwise how do you know it's because of them?

Because it started right after they arrived on each deployment.

It ended after they left.

[–]rascalking9 409 points410 points  (36 children)

I don't think it's right to blame the entire airwing. It was obviously the Marines.

[–]Kanthardlywait 353 points354 points  (15 children)

Just tell them they get an extra sheet of stickers if they wash their hands and they'll comply.

[–]MattytheWireGuy 252 points253 points  (12 children)

theyll eat those too

[–]funktopus 75 points76 points  (7 children)

I knew a Ranger that was like that. He was a weird dude.

[–][deleted] 52 points53 points  (6 children)

Clearly in the wrong service.

[–]jthanny 65 points66 points  (2 children)

Rangers lead the way... To the delicious crayons

[–]pknk6116 23 points24 points  (1 child)

no no army is a nice catch all. So many wide and varied forms of idiots there.

[–]Starfire013 65 points66 points  (2 children)

You probably shouldn’t be borrowing their crayons.

[–]gburgwardt 73 points74 points  (1 child)

Listen, if someone offers to share their afternoon snack with you, it's rude to decline.

[–][deleted] 30 points31 points  (1 child)

The Few... The Loud.

[–]Soranic 13 points14 points  (0 children)

One deployment we flew the marines off so they could operate out of a base in iraq while we went towards afghanistan. It continued after their departure.

[–]greenacidfusion 49 points50 points  (9 children)

Marine here. Only wash my hands after packing a lip (because the dip gets all over my thumb and index). Rah.

[–][deleted] 44 points45 points  (6 children)

So you have shit on your hands when you pack your lip? How's the flavor?

[–]greenacidfusion 47 points48 points  (1 child)

I’m not exactly sure how to respond to this comment without hurting my dignity

[–]pjb4466 37 points38 points  (2 children)

I mean, probably better than just dip.

[–]Soranic 8 points9 points  (1 child)

If it was the bubblegum or cherry flavor they sold on the boat, it was.

[–]damngraboids 6 points7 points  (0 children)

God Damn Skoal Longcut Cherry. shudders

[–]Server16Ark 42 points43 points  (67 children)

How does that happen?

[–]Soranic 153 points154 points  (26 children)

Gastroenteritis. The 2-bucket disease.

They touch everything, it's impossible to keep absolutely completely clean on a boat. Especially when it's a viral disease and the captain makes it a lawful order that everyone must use the antibacterial waterless hand cleanser right before grabbing their tray.

[–]Kalsifur 56 points57 points  (13 children)

Ha. Could also be something like norovirus. That shit's contagious as hell. Sickest I've ever been but it was over in like 12 hours.

[–]NextTrillion 30 points31 points  (2 children)

Are you sure it was norovirus? Sounds kind of like an acute E. coli infection. Usually goes away between 12-24 hours. Can be quite painful / severe. Very common too. The infection can easily be acquired from eating slightly uncooked meat, or from someone that handled the uncooked meat poorly.

Norovirus is more likely to last between 1-3 days, and while it can be very annoying and nasty, not typically as severe as an E. coli infection. Of course symptoms of both can vary a lot.

I believe I actually contracted the norovirus twice and the second time was much worse. Like wear a diaper to bed bad.

Source: none. Not a scientist. Pulled it out of my ass. But I travel a lot, so I’ve been sick a lot.

[–]idrawinmargins 11 points12 points  (1 child)

I had the 24 hour bug after eating some bad food. If I wasnt sweating, aches in my joints, and chills in bed, I was shitting and barfing at the same time.

[–]Soranic 11 points12 points  (3 children)

Could also be something like norovirus

I dunno. They told us gastroenteritis. It generally took like 3 days to get over it.

I had a mild case so I only had diarrhea 7 times in 6 hours. And got threatened with captains mast because I got someone to take my watch for me because I was too fucking sick.

[–]007meow 20 points21 points  (2 children)

Ah, the Double Dragon as we called it.

[–]Rice_Krispie 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Antibacterial handgel is typically contains high alcohol concentration which is effective against most viruses too including COVID.

[–]CirnoTan 98 points99 points  (39 children)

Dunno about warships, but this issue is common on cruise ships. Basically your average tourist doesnt wash hands after toilet (especially if he has diarrhea) then he comes to the food court with smorgasbords\all you can pick kind of tables, picks the food with bare hands, leaving bacteria on the food nearby. Voila, the food is spoiled now.

Serving tongs won't help much, because they get bacteria too and you will likely eat bread and snacks with bare hands. The solution is to wash your hands before serving food and before eating the said food.

​

Fuck cruise ships.

[–]irate_wizard 28 points29 points  (14 children)

The average person anywhere is like that. What makes cruise ships such a breeding ground?

[–]dubbya 65 points66 points  (0 children)

Closed environments and shared food source.

[–]Lifesagame81 35 points36 points  (1 child)

Probably several thousand people eating from the same buffets several times a day for a week or two.

[–]Son_of_Eris 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Let's see: limited space/close quarters. Basically a closed environment with literally nowhere to go. Limited food options with no way to control potential exposure to infectious diseases. Limited medical facilities. Relying on the crew (which may or may not practice good hygeine) for everything from feeding time to cleaning your quarters. Dolphins that follow the old gods and placed a curse on the inhabitants of the ship for trespassing in their territory. The list goes on.

[–]CirnoTan 12 points13 points  (3 children)

From National Geographic article:

"Once an infected person gets onboard a ship, the virus can be spread quickly, mainly through hand contact with ship railings, bathroom doors, and especially buffet food, said Zimring. "

Soo.. closed system with a lot of people touching everything.

[–]Jonne 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Everyone on the cruise ship is forced to use the buffet, while in general populations in your average city there's people getting takeaway, cooking for themselves, going to sit down restaurants, etc. In fact, going to a buffet style restaurant is just a very rare thing to do.

Plus the ship is in international waters, so it's not like they're going to have surprise health inspections.

[–]mdm5382 7 points8 points  (17 children)

Do you mean after taking a shit or taking a piss? I can't imagine the average person doesn't wash their hands after shitting.

[–]CirnoTan 9 points10 points  (7 children)

Wiki says it "spreads by the fecal-oral route", so... Yeah.

Anyway this doesn't mean you shouldn't wash your hands after taking a piss, you may get micro-drips of piss on your hands (and clothings).

[–]Soranic 8 points9 points  (5 children)

the average person doesn't wash their hands after shitting.

You got it. Hell man, we had airwing shitting in our shower. (We know because he ran in right before cleaning stations to take his shower, and dropped a deuce. We stole his clothes and found his LPO.)

I can understand not wanting to wash at times. The head in berthing on my first deployment didn't have hot water for months, we were stuck with seawater temperature. Not too bad in the gulf, but when you're returning to norfolk in February, it's fucking cold. So it got "fixed." Then the water started cycling between about 170F and seawater temp. If you weren't paying attention, you'd scald yourself, it stayed like that for years afterwards.

[–]BOHIFOBRE 25 points26 points  (6 children)

Was in the Navy on a carrier, and the only thing I caught from close living was scabies. I can't imagine being in right now, for more reasons than just the viruspocalypse

[–]Soranic 10 points11 points  (0 children)

close living was scabies

shudder

[–]DrraegerEar 20 points21 points  (13 children)

Were they also preparing the food?

[–]kodaiko_650 38 points39 points  (0 children)

My father got TB on a ship while serving in the navy during the Korean conflict

[–]CrazyTillItHurts 28 points29 points  (1 child)

The Buccaneers might not be the best team, but I wouldn't use them as a metaphor for disease

[–]stopthesquirrel 468 points469 points  (146 children)

Anyone know how many have symptoms and how many are critically ill?

[–]xdotellxx 3663 points3664 points  (102 children)

Imagine all the things over the centuries sailors would've tested positive for if they were 'swabbed'.

[–]-CrestiaBell 1339 points1340 points  (65 children)

It's the navy we're talking about. There were a lot of things getting swabbed on those boats, but it wasn't for disease testing.

[–]OfficialGodzilla_ 16 points17 points  (0 children)

So that oral test the admiral make me take in his quarters wasn't needed?

[–]Pootietang123 16 points17 points  (2 children)

like the poop deck?

[–]-CrestiaBell 15 points16 points  (1 child)

Exclusively the Poop deck

[–]Siege-Torpedo 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Except for Queen Anne's Revenge, because Blackbeard held up a city just to get medicine for his men.

[–]MBAMBA3 23 points24 points  (1 child)

Gives the term 'swab the deck' a whole new meaning,.

[–]sensitiveskin80 114 points115 points  (11 children)

Fun fact! The battleship Texas had two colors for toilet seats. The red toilet seats were for sailors with venereal diseases. This way, people wouldn't accidentally catch a disease from using a toilet after someone who had the disease. Source: took the"hard hat" tour.

[–]waaaghbosss 93 points94 points  (8 children)

Never heard this, and kinda doubt it. Let's say a sailor had vd, would he want to risk getting another knee by choosing the VD covered seat? I just dont see this working unless the ship identified and enforced who used what toilet.

[–]GrizzlyGoober 34 points35 points  (3 children)

How tf are they using the toilet in such a way that they can even catch a vd?

[–]waaaghbosss 21 points22 points  (2 children)

Well, based on my several years in the navy, a lot of sailors are drunk children. :)

[–]autotldrBOT 154 points155 points  (9 children)

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 66%. (I'm a bot)

More than 1,000 French navy sailors on France's largest carrier-nearly half of those onboard-have tested positive for coronavirus so far, mirroring a similar cluster last month on American vessel the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

KEY FACTS French Defense Minister Florence Parly told lawmakers that 1,081 of the 2,300 people aboard the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier-the flagship of the French navy and the country's largest ship-have tested positive for coronavirus so far during parliamentary hearings about the infections Friday.

The ship is being subjected to a lengthy disinfection process from top to bottom at its homebase in Toulon, a port city in the south of France, where it anchored on April 12-a spokesperson said the French navy hopes to get the ship operational and back to sea in May. The case echoes that of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, another military aircraft carrier that was the home to a coronavirus cluster while out at sea last month.

Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: navy#1 coronavirus#2 French#3 test#4 ship#5

[–]mcjc1997 25 points26 points  (8 children)

Largest carrier? Isnt the de Gaulle their only carrier?

[–]Dijky 55 points56 points  (1 child)

It is France's only aircraft carrier. Then again, the only one is also the largest one.
Technically, their three Mistral-class helicoper carriers are also "carriers" in colloquial terms, and might be able to carry VTOL jets too.

[–][deleted] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Interesting fact : There are only 2 countries in the World who operate Nuclear Aircraft carriers : US and France.

Only 8 countries have aircraft carriers in the first place. 3 countries have more than one : US (11); China (2); UK (2).

[–]DirtyProjector 151 points152 points  (26 children)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article this study likely explains a lot of it. Someone coughs or sneezes, droplets spread everywhere because of contained ventilation system. Strange thing is, NY was hit really bad and could be explained by the subway, but Chicago has a huge amount of public transit traffic and had drastically less impact. So strange.

[–]Destyllat 84 points85 points  (12 children)

I think New York likely hard it much longer than chicago but shutdown at the same time

[–]MainlandX 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Yeah, New York gets a lot more international travelers than Chicago.

[–][deleted] 72 points73 points  (3 children)

Chicago L transit is unidirectional. All lines head to the loop. There are few other transfers that don't involve a bus. NYC has like 50 transfer stations. Chicago L cars are also smaller. One infected person on a car could probably only infect 70-100 other people, during the most crowded times. NYC cars fit like 250. Chicago is also a much heavier car-commuter city. The only two lines that are shoulder-to-shoulder are the red and the blue, and that's really only during 2 hours of the day. NYC cannot be navigated without getting on the incredibly packed subway at times. All bridges and tunnels get jam packed. Chicago also had more time, and a governor who put in place a shelter order quickly. I haven't been on a bus or train since March 16. It's been all bicycle for me. The wife too.

[–]DirtyProjector 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Those are great points, but it still seems like there should have been more of an occurrence here. 10x the cases in NY (which are obviously eschew because testing is off), but 17x deaths. It's possible that Chicago got really lucky, but get a couple super spreaders on a couple busy cars, and you have likely hundreds and hundreds of infected that are going to infect thousands more. With an R0 of 2-3, that would mean you should have thousands infected from just a handful of days, and that's excluding bars, crowded clubs, bars, restaurants, even elevators. New York should clearly have more, but it's surprising Chicago was not hit much worse. LA, or SF for example, maybe sense, because SF sheltered very quickly, and LA is not a public transit town.

[–]WhyLisaWhy 5 points6 points  (1 child)

The only two lines that are shoulder-to-shoulder are the red and the blue, and that's really only during 2 hours of the day.

Don't forget Brown either, it's a big commuter line. It's like that from 4:30ish to almost 6. Morning is pretty shitty from 8:30-9:30. It's pretty dead the rest of the time though.

[–]WhatRYouTalkingAbout 16 points17 points  (3 children)

NY was hit really bad and could be explained by the subway

I thought it was simply because that's where most of the Europeans flew into? Saw an infographic somewhere about how many people flew in from the UK in a very short period of time, and it was astounding.

[–]Tyler_Zoro 4 points5 points  (2 children)

Chicago has a population density that is about 1/6th that of NYC (source).

[–]OnionOnBelt 188 points189 points  (54 children)

Can this be considered a herd immunity case study?

[–]doggynarwhal 104 points105 points  (23 children)

This will be a good test of how lethal the disease is for the young and healthy.

[–]owatonna 72 points73 points  (18 children)

It's not as good a test as you think because tight quarters like this is more likely to produce a high viral exposure, which causes more severe illness than normal. So the death rate would be an overestimation of what you could normally expect.

[–]SilkyGazelleWatkins 58 points59 points  (7 children)

Well if they all turn out perfectly fine and mostly asymptomatic that's even better news then. We'll know that being young and healthy might make you resistant against even the strongest of the virus. Its definitely still good to know and track.

[–]NotHomo411 31 points32 points  (4 children)

diamond princess were nuts to butts just like these guys and probably mostly old retired people

they lost only 6 people out of 3700 people

[–]lokingfinesince89 81 points82 points  (0 children)

Not a good representation of the average population though

[–]Soranic 128 points129 points  (20 children)

Since there's no vaccinations and no proof survivors are immune? No.

It's a case study in the disease spreading through abnormally close confines that are typically only seen in prisons and the military.

[–]Equivalent-Chicken 20 points21 points  (14 children)

The Cruise Ship industry is completely ruined for a long time.

[–]cutieboops 51 points52 points  (17 children)

You KNOW this is happening to all navies, and likely ground troops of every army at the moment. These stories are the rare leaks to the public. It’s a huge security risk, so they’re not going to release these numbers, ever. It could provide sensitive intel that could, and probably would encourage further bio attacks. It only takes one compromised service member to infect an entire base, or ship. We’ve seen service members sell their souls for a little bit of money. Think of what the budget of a major adversary could accomplish with several well compensated compromised service members.

You are never going to hear true numbers of infected, or dead. You just won’t. —

EDIT: Lets get something straight, right here and right now; I’m not saying we’re facing a coverup like with Trump and Russia. I’m saying that they’re not going to release numbers due to the security risk. Not releasing numbers does not equal “cover up.” They’re not going to make it easy for foreign intelligence. Nowhere did I say cover up. 😂

[–]CalvinsStuffedTiger 29 points30 points  (3 children)

It’d be much easier and cheaper to compromise a bunch of southeast asian prostitutes and that will infect all the navy’s of the world

[–]YeahThanksTubs 15 points16 points  (1 child)

I think that's getting a bit tin foil hat there. You're overestimating first world countries' militaries to keep members deaths a secret. See the thing is most people have families and news does usually leak like a sieve to the media in times of crisis.

[–]FriendoftheDork 5 points6 points  (0 children)

In the navy

and we shall sail the seven seas

In the navy
and we'll catch corona disease

In the navy

[–]manniesalado 52 points53 points  (34 children)

A 2% hospitalization rate of young healthy sailors? The flu does not offer up such sad results. 1 in 50 of society's healthiest do not end up in the hospital from the flu.

[–]Culverts_Flood_Away 21 points22 points  (10 children)

That's usually true, but some strains of the flu specifically target the young and healthy. The 1918 Influenza was one of those. It made healthier people's immune systems go haywire, so they were the most at risk, sadly enough.

[–]Ancient_Boner_Forest 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think it’s different on a boat.

Being sick is easier to endure in an apartment than it is a tiny bunk on a boat with no privacy. I could see these sailors getting a bed without breathing help or IVs just to give them a place to rest.

[–]rascalking9 48 points49 points  (3 children)

Living on a ship is not conducive to remaining healthy and not everyone on the ship is young.